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The new report aims at turning the IEA's focus away from energy transformation
According to the former director of the International Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency should rewrite its annual energy outlook in order to reflect the real-world, and not just to reinforce its current focus on global energy transformation. Atkinson, a former IEA oil manager, wrote the report Energy Delusions for the National Center for Energy Analytics. Atkinson stated that the aim of the report was to influence the new administration under President Donald Trump. The report lists 23 assumptions that were made by the agency, which led to a conclusion it describes as flawed: that the global economy of oil would peak in 2030 and that no new investment was needed for oil and gas. According to the report, the IEA overestimates adoption of electric vehicles and underestimates the growth in emerging oil markets. KEY QUOTE The report stated that "the promotional aspirations, and flawed assumptions, underlying IEA’s peak-demand scenario, have serious implications given the obvious global security and economic considerations when planning and delivering affordable, reliable energy supplies." BACKGROUND Since more than 50 years, the Paris-based IEA provides research and data on energy supply and security to industrialized countries to help guide their policy. Around a quarter is provided by the United States. The IEA's focus has shifted in recent years from oil and gas to clean energy, as governments look for input on climate goals. The Republicans in Congress criticized the IEA for its climate-focused approach. Trump also identified this issue as one he could tackle as president. Key Context Trump's plan to boost the oil and gas industry, which is a traditional part of his agenda, clashes with the IEA's emphasis on a clean-energy transition. Other global oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, have also been angered by the IEA's focus on a clean energy transition. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Valerie Volcovici)
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US tariff concerns remain in the spotlight as copper edges up from a three-week low
The copper price edged upwards after reaching its lowest level in three weeks on Wednesday in London, but concerns that U.S. president Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could harm the global demand outlook held gains in check. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% by 1701 GMT to $9,059 per metric ton after it had fallen to $8,957, its lowest level since January 8. U.S. Comex Copper Futures rose 1.1% to $4.195 per lb. This keeps the premium above the LME contract at $400 a tonne. Trump said that he will announce 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada starting on February 1 if they do not help the United States tackle the twin problems of fentanyl and immigration. He announced on Monday that he would be imposing tariffs on aluminum, copper and steel. The market is very reactive right now, due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and possible retaliatory measures, especially in China. Alice Fox is a global metals analyst at Macquarie. The introduction of tariffs may negatively impact the global growth, and therefore the copper demand. Investors were looking for clues on the amount of interest rates that might be cut this year. The dollar remained steady in advance of the next U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision. Aluminium on the LME rose 2.0%, to $2,623 per ton, after rebounding from a 2-week low. Discount for LME Cash Contracts against Three-Month Aluminium The price was $6 per ton, down from $67 in July. BNP Paribas believes that this spread will swing to a premium during the first half 2025, as China's limited production capacity and its own cap on growth in other countries tightens physical supply despite a slower demand. Lead rose by 1.3% at $1,967 per ton. Tin was up by 1.4% to $30,000; zinc gained 0.3% to 2,783; and nickel gained 0.2%, to $15,480. Chinese metals markets are closed until February 5 for the Lunar New Year. (Reporting from Polina Deitt in London, Additional reporting by Anushree Mukerjee in Bengaluru. Editing by David Goode and Nick Zieminski.
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Poor planning puts Mozambican residents at risk of deadly floods
Residents of Maputo struggle with flooding Mozambique has a high vulnerability to climate change Planning and lack of funds hamper the authorities' response By Samuel Come The stagnant green water reflects the salmon-pink walls of the house as blankets and rugs hang outside to dry. The 46-year old woman, who was carrying two buckets of water, said, "I am struggling to get the water out of my home, but it may rain again in a few more days and I will be back in the same situation." Two cyclones, one after the other, have killed over 130 people in the last few months in his Hulene A neighborhood. According to the World Bank's report, Mozambique is one of the "ten most vulnerable countries globally" in terms of the effects caused by climate change. Experts say that the government's tight finances and inadequate infrastructure make it difficult to cope with frequent flooding. In recent years, the economy has been hit by extreme weather conditions and deadly protests following a contested elections. Raul told us that he sent two of his four children to live in another part of the city with his brother, out of concern they might contract diseases due to the stagnant water. He would have sent them all if his brother could accommodate. Aida Lucio who lives in Hulene A said that she and her daughter just recovered from malaria, which she blamed to the mosquitoes attracted by the stagnant waters in her neighborhood. The 35-year-old woman said that her neighbor had moved and she would as well if she could. She said, "We are in mortal danger." Not Enough Money According to the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction, the Dikeledi cyclone, which struck in mid-January and killed 11, followed the Chido cyclone that killed 120 in Mozambique. According to the National Institute of Meteorology, the country can expect more rain this year because of the La Nina phenomenon. This is a cooling of ocean temperatures at the surface. According to the INGD, around 76,000 residents in Maputo's 30+ neighbourhoods could be affected by flooding during this rainy season. The INGD reported that nearly 250,000 people, including the dead and 1,200 people who were forced to leave their homes, were affected by Dikeledi cyclone. The government opened up four shelters for the displaced. DIKELEDI https://aimnews.org/2025/01/21/cyclone-dikeledi-kills-11-in-nampula/ Authorities are worried that they do not have the money to cover all of the demands. The INGD reported that its Contingency Plan Fund, which it receives from the state government and international donors for national emergencies, was 9 billion meticais (142.29 millions) below what it estimated it needed to combat extreme weather during this rainy season. Hulene A residents are taking matters in their own hands. Carlos Serra Jr., the head of the NGO Repensar, says that they are digging ditches in order to channel water into natural retention areas - areas with very low ground and no houses. However, this won't be enough to clear out the area. The cyclones also worsened conditions in Magoanine in the nearby neighbourhood, which has been struggling with the aftermath of the 2023 flood for the past few years. Emilia Cardoso, who was affected by the floods of 2010, has lived in a centre for accommodation for over two years. She is upset that there are not enough bathrooms and food for everyone in the center. She hopes to one day be able return home. The 51-year old said, "It is hard to live here." PALLIATIVE SOLUTIONS Municipal authorities have so far installed small motor pumps to pump water into a nearby small river. They will move the pump in a month to Hulene A. Environmental groups want the authorities to construct a better drainage system that will funnel rainwater into Indian Ocean which is only 15 km away. Borges da Silva is the CEO of the Municipal Sanitation and Drainage Company. He said that most families who were displaced in the floods of 2023 will be able return to their home in Magoanine, within one month. Da Silva explained that this was due to the construction of a new pipe network. Da Silva said, "We will pump out the floodwater and create an water retention basin. Within 30 days we should be able to allow the families to go back to their homes." Serra Jr., however, said that such measures did not address the causes of flooding. These include poor planning and illegal settlements along natural waterways. He claimed that the government does not consider the 2008 municipal urban structure plan, which outlines zones of environmental and climatic importance. Serra Jr. said that the municipality might install motor pumps for a time, but it's impossible to predict what will happen tomorrow. He said, "Maputo urgently requires very strict environmental protection. We all must intervene to rectify the many errors that have been committed throughout history." Officials from the Ministry of Land and Environment declined to comment. They said a new ministry would be created as part the restructuring plan for the incoming government after the elections. Daniel Chapo, the new president of Mexico, was sworn in on January 15, after a controversial general election held last year. This extended the power of the Frelimo Party that has ruled the country for the past 50 years.
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Banorte, a Mexican bank, sees a smaller loan growth and tighter spending by 2025
The Mexican lender Banorte is expecting its loan book growth to slow this year, as it tightens up costs. This comes after a challenging 2024. Banorte executives told analysts that macroeconomic challenges and uncertainties associated with the new U.S. administration of President Donald Trump could cause the operating environment to be rocky. Banorte anticipates that its loan book will grow between 8% and 11% in 2019, down from 14% growth seen in the year 2024. CFO Rafael Arana said later that the lender was only able to commit to the lower-to-mid-range of its guidance. However, corporate and government lending could increase toward the end the year. Arana said that the consumer loan book is showing signs of resilience, and that a pickup in volume may also be possible. Arana explained that when she said challenging, it was not a negative word. "Challenging is executing and I believe we are very good at that." The company's shares were down by more than 1% at mid-morning. Banorte expects to reduce its expenditures in 2025 as well, after the recurring expenses growth in 2018 exceeded expectations. As it did last year, the firm expects recurring expenses to increase between 6% and 7% this year. Last year, it was 7.4%. Arana stated that "there will be a reduction in the expenditure line by 2025". (Reporting and editing by Kyry Madry, Sarah Morland).
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Mexico accelerates plans to double its gas storage capacity amid Trump Supply Fears
Three sources familiar with this matter have said that the Mexican government wants to accelerate plans to double the strategic storage capacity of natural gas amid concerns that U.S. president Donald Trump may use Mexico's dependency on U.S.-produced gas as a form of leverage. Mexico, as a net natural gas importer, only has a natural gas storage capability of 2.4 days. Two government sources and an industry source both said that the country was looking to increase its capacity of storage to at least five-days' domestic consumption, in places such as salt caverns or depleted fields. Comparatively, France stores natural gas on average for 105 days. Spain is at around 20 days. The government of President Claudia Sheinbaum had originally planned to double the storage capacity by 2030 when her tenure ends. Sources said that Trump's return to office and the extreme weather of this winter prompted her to bring the date forward to 2025 or 2026. When asked about the possibility that the U.S. administration could use Mexico's dependence on U.S. gas to gain leverage, a White House official said that the administration was still reviewing its relationship with Mexico, but "all options" were still on the table. The Mexican presidency and the energy ministry have not responded to comments immediately. According to estimates from the private sector, in February 2021 a winter storm that hit Texas caused a disruption in natural gas supplies to Mexico. This left millions of people without electricity across most of America and resulted in losses of over $6 billion within a week. The imports of natural gas, almost exclusively from the United States (72%) are the main sources of Mexico's total consumption. The main uses of natural gas are to produce electricity and industrial activities. Natural gas is imported mainly via pipeline. Sheinbaum's energy team met with Mexican and international businesses after she won the Mexican presidential election last summer to revive her predecessor Andres Lopez Obrador's plan to increase natural gas capacity for emergencies. Sources said that the government is feeling an even greater urgency to complete the project, since Trump won the U.S. elections and threatened to impose tariffs against Mexico. Mexico has been trying to implement a policy of storing natural gas to ensure energy security for over a decade. This is because imports began to increase, going from 1,258 millions cubic feet per day in 2009, to 6,178.6 million cubic foot per day in 2023. The energy ministry issued a directive in 2018 to Cenagas (which manages the natural-gas transportation and storage system) that it must have 45 trillion cubic feet of strategic natural gas by 2026, or five days' worth of national consumption. The previous government was unable to attract bidders in the tender to convert four oil fields that had been depleted into storage facilities. According to government sources, capital costs to double the natural gas storage capacity will range between $420 and $2.58 billion depending on the technology used. The lower limit corresponds with depleted hydrocarbon reserves and the upper limit is for storage in LNG tanks. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; Additional reporting in Washington by Jarrett Renshaw; Reporting by Diego Ore)
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EU: drive for simplicity will not undermine climate agenda
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that the European Union's efforts to simplify regulations will not undermine its climate change goals. She spoke on Wednesday, after the Commission released a plan for boosting EU competitiveness. It was the first in a series to support the industries of the EU, and it was intended to counter the promise of U.S. president Donald Trump to eliminate regulation. Von der Leyen said that Brussels will need to adapt their rules as industries undergo the clean energy transformation, but this does not mean lowering its targets of cutting net greenhouse gas emission by 55% by 2020 and zero by 2050. "We will not change our course." She said at a press conference that the goals were set in stone. "The goal and the objective remain, but we'd like to achieve it faster and better. We must reduce complexity to achieve this. Climate change is a topic that has been addressed differently in Europe and the U.S. Trump, who took office last week and halted U.S. clean tech funding, has also withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement. Von der Leyen stated that Europe's plan for boosting competitiveness is not in conflict with its green agenda, since both aim at expanding the local manufacturing and renewable energy. She faces pressure from certain industries, governments and legislators to weaken the climate policies designed to ensure Europe achieves its emission targets. Poland is one of the countries that wants to delay the planned EU carbon market. Italy and Czech Republic have opposed the EU's phase-out by 2035 of combustion engine vehicles, while centre-right legislators have proposed delaying EU's border tax on carbon. The EU's proposals, due to be released late next month, will provide a first indication of how much Brussels is reducing red tape. This mission was started months ago and has gained urgency since Trump returned to office. On Wednesday, the EU confirmed that "among other measures", it will reduce reporting requirements for companies under three EU sustainability regulations. Three policies are being addressed first: the EU's Sustainable Finance Reporting Law, its Due Diligence Rules, and its Taxonomy defining which investments may be labeled as climate-friendly. EU officials have confirmed that Brussels will also consider adding the carbon border tax to next month’s simplification package. (Reporting and editing by Kate Abnett, Hugh Lawson, Barbara Lewis).
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Police: US-born girl killed by father in Pakistan after TikTok videos
Pakistani police reported that a man who brought his family from the United States back to Pakistan on Wednesday admitted to killing his teenage daughter because he disapproved of her TikTok contents. The shooting took place on a street of Quetta, a city in southwest Pakistan. Anwar ul-Haq initially claimed that unidentified gunmen killed his 15-year-old American-born daughter, before he confessed, Babar Baloch, a police official, said. Zohaib Mhsin, a police investigator, stated that "our investigation has so far found that the family objected to her dress, lifestyle and social gathering", another police investigator. We have her mobile. He said, "It is locked." "We are investigating all aspects including honour killing." Baloch stated that the family recently returned to Balochistan, a province of Pakistan dominated by Muslims, with conservative social values, after living in the United States. The officer confirmed that the suspect is a U.S. citizen. Haq told him that his daughter had created "objectionable content" on TikTok, a social media platform, when she was living in the United States. He said that she continued to upload videos to the platform even after she returned to Pakistan. Baloch claimed that the brother-in law of the main suspect had been arrested for the murder. The police said that Haq had been charged with murder. The police did not provide any proof of Haq’s U.S. Citizenship except the suspect's testimony. They also declined to confirm whether the U.S. Embassy had been informed about the incident. His family refused to comment on a request for comments. In Pakistan, which has a population of 241 millions people, more than 54 million use TikTok. In recent years, the government has repeatedly blocked TikTok due to its content moderation. Islamabad has been requesting that social media platforms remove content it deems "obscene" for some time now. According to the independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, over 1,000 women die each year in Pakistan as a result of perceived "honour" damage. This could include eloping with a man, posting content on social media, fraternising or other actions that violate conservative values for women.
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Mexico will present its energy reform to Congress this Wednesday
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that her government would send Congress a bill on Wednesday to reform the energy sector of the country and create mechanisms for public-private partnership across the oil and gas and power industries. Sheinbaum, in a morning press conference, said that the reform was "very deep". It aimed to simplify structures at state energy firm CFE and oil company Pemex while maintaining prices for residents. Sheinbaum pledged to continue the policies of her predecessor Andres Lopez Obrador including his call for state-controlled energy. Reform would favor state-owned operators, while still allowing public-private partnership. According to the draft bill, seen on Tuesday, it would be required that CFE provide at least 54% electricity dispatched into the national grid and the state hold a minimum of 54% stake in projects involving public-private partnerships. Sheinbaum stated in her presentation that the plan included the creation of a brand new energy regulator, which would be responsible for granting permits for oil and petroleum projects. She added that next week, the government will present a plan for CFE's investment. Sheinbaum said that the reform is in support of her administration's Industrial Plan, which she had presented earlier this month following President Donald Trump’s threats to impose sanctions on its top trading partners. Separately she stated that she didn't believe the U.S. President Donald Trump would impose 25% tariffs on the products of the Feb. 1 deadline . (Reporting and writing by Ana Isabel Martinez, Editing by Cassandra Garrison & Franklin Paul).
Severe weather condition raises hunger threat in Latin America, UN says
Environment irregularity and extreme weather occasions stalk at least 20 Latin American countries and increase the risk of appetite and poor nutrition in the region, according to a multiagency United Nations study published on Monday.
WHY IT is necessary
The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are greatly dependent on farming, ranching, forestry and fishing, farming sectors directly linked to food security that are particularly vulnerable to dry spells, floods and storms.
Scientists have actually cautioned that severe weather will intensify due to climate change. As the world's second-most exposed area, after Asia, Latin America could struggle to feed itself.
BY THE NUMBERS
Extreme weather condition events affected 74% of the nations in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the study, with half of the nations examined thought about likeable to deal with increased malnourishment as a result.
The report entitled Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition 2024, highlighted that cravings impacted 41 million individuals, or 6.2 percent of the population, in the region in 2023.
The research study documented some recent development; the number of hungry people across the area in 2023 was 2.9 million fewer than in 2022, and down 4.3 million compared to 2021. But the study warned that the downward trend might be warded off by climate dangers.
KEY PRICES ESTIMATE
Climate irregularity and severe weather condition events are lowering farming efficiency, interrupting food supply chains, increasing prices, affecting food environments and threatening development in decreasing hunger and poor nutrition in the region, the research study stated.
CONTEXT
The report was conducted by five United Nations agencies; the United Nations Food and Agriculture Company, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, the Pan American Health Organization, the World Food Program and the United Nations Children's Fund.
(source: Reuters)