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Oil and semi-stocks are up, as is the price of equities.
The global stock index rose on Monday, as chipmaker stocks recovered from their recent sharp declines. Oil prices also increased slightly with investors cautious about the Gulf developments. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis have declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that mediators have presented "proposals", signaling diplomatic contacts are still active. However, it did not provide any details. U.S. crude climbed 0.15%, to $82.61, and Brent rose 0.6% to $88.63 a barrel. Since the start of the U.S. - Iran conflict on February 28, higher oil prices have been a concern for both consumers and businesses. After last week's pullback in chip stocks, the equities have largely stabilized. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, New York. He said that he was seeing some semiconductor stocks recover. The semiconductor index was up 1.5% on Saturday after it ended Friday more than 20 percent below its record-breaking high from late June. This confirms that the market is in a downturn. Oil prices are also a factor. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 158.80?points, or 0.30%?to 51,987.62. The S&P 500 rose 18?40 points or 0.25% to 7,476.09, and the Nasdaq Composite grew 141.45?points, or 0.55%?to 25,661.70. The U.S. earnings season is picking up speed, as several major companies including Intel and IBM are due to release results. Earnings will either confirm or contradict this year's gains. This has been driven by an increase in AI capital expenditure, which is seen as a boon for semiconductor stocks and companies. This season will give us some insights into the AI trade, which includes chipmakers. It will also shed more light on the secondary effects of war. U.S. Treasury Yields rose as traders considered the impact of escalating prices for oil, driven by the war with Iran. Futures markets have priced in at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year's end. On Monday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury was at 4.56% - up 2 basis points. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 6.28 basis points from 4.541% to 4.604% late on Friday. Dollar rose as investors watched developments in the Iran War, and the pound dropped from its earlier highs as the markets prepared for the new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Sterling fell 0.26%, to $1.3418. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.15%, to?100.98. Meanwhile, the euro fell by 0.25%, to $1.141. U.S. Natural?gas Futures fell about 1% due to rising production, a drop in exports of liquefied gas, and forecasts that demand will be lower this week than expected. (Reporting from Caroline Valetkevitch and Alun John, in New York; additional reporting from Wayne Cole, in Sydney; editing by Sharon Singleton and Jan Harvey)
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Smoke lingers on parts of the US as wildfires in Ontario expand
Wildfires in Ontario have grown from 650,000 to 735,000 acres (1.8 million hectares) since the weekend. Premier Doug Ford announced this on Monday. The air quality in Ontario has improved, but remains unhealthy in some parts of the U.S. Midwest. Ford stated at a Toronto press conference that the province was battling 190 active fires. Around 1,800 residents were evacuated from sparsely-populated communities in northwest?Ontario. Ford stated, "We won't spare a dime in fighting these fires or keeping the people safe." Wildfires in Canada, which mostly occur in areas that are difficult to access, have led to tensions between Canada, the U.S. and some politicians who have criticized Canada for its response. The smoke from wildfires in Ontario, Minnesota and northern Canada caused the worst air pollution ever to reach Toronto last week. It then spread to New York City and Washington. The air quality has improved since then in Southern Ontario, the U.S. Northeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. However, it remains poor in some U.S. states in the Midwest. As of 11:15 a.m. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s AirNow website rated air quality in a region that includes parts of Wisconsin and Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri and Illinois as “unhealthy” or “unhealthy for groups sensitive to the air”. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Mark Carney, Canadian prime minister at the time of his visit to Washington on Sunday told him that Canada needed to do more in order for it control wildfires in Ontario. Trump claimed that he discussed the matter with?Carney at the FIFA World Cup Final, which both of them attended Sunday. This was two days after Trump threatened to levy extra tariffs on Canadian products to punish 'Canada for the wildfire smoke. Carney hasn't directly replied to Trump. However, he did say that?all countries include the United States. Climate change must be addressed more. Ford called it "inacceptable" that Trump chose to criticize Canada’s response to wildfires and threaten tariffs instead of sending help. He said that Ontario would send hydro workers to the U.S. to assist with Hurricane Helene in 2024 and water bombers in California to combat wildfires in California in 2025, as proof of Canadian support during natural disasters. Ford said, "Instead of criticizing and threatening Canada, your closest allies, perhaps one day you will need our help." Canada is home to some of world's biggest forests. Major forest fires are now a common occurrence. Experts say that rising temperatures are causing drier wood and an increased risk of fire. (Reporting and editing by Mark Porter in Toronto, with Ryan Patrick Jones reporting from Toronto)
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Investors' gold prices remain stable as they weigh US-Iran developments and Fed signals
Investors assessed 'developments in the escalating U.S. - Iran?conflict which?lifted?energy prices and clouded U.S. rate outlooks. As of 11:47 am EDT (1547 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.1% to $4,014.39 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were unchanged at $4,019.00. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes increased by 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar was up by 0.3% making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they had attacked U.S. military equipment across the Middle East?after another night's bombardment by the U.S. of Iranian cities?while Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis announced a naval blocade against Saudi Arabia? Brent crude oil prices have stabilized after reaching a high of more than a month, fueling inflation fears and increasing bets on higher interest rates for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of the non-yielding investment. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that "higher energy prices are still in focus" as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East adds to the concern that the Fed's less than expected data on inflation last week may not be sufficient to prevent them from raising rates this year. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has added her voice in a growing chorus that believes interest rates need to be raised to combat persistent inflation. This will set up a heated debate at the Fed’s next meeting, and possibly dissents during Kevin Warsh's 2nd meeting as chairman of the central bank. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect an interest rate increase in the U.S. by December. This is up from?73% last Friday. "We anticipate that the Fed will not raise rates until later in this year. We expect them to use balance sheet adjustments. Meger stated that we believe the realization of this will add some'support' to the gold price and put pressure on the dollar in the next month or two. Other metals such as palladium, platinum, and silver also saw gains. Palladium gained 1.6%, while spot silver rose 2%. (Reporting and editing by Noel John in Bengaluru, Vedika Thorat)
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Zinc prices expected to decline in 2026 due to weak demand and supply concerns
Analysts predict that zinc prices will fall from their recent highs in the remainder of the year, as a lacklustre supply offsets the disruptions to demand. Due to the 'tight ores supply' and smelter losses, the metal used to galvanise steel will be up by more than 13% in 2026 on London Metal Exchange. Zinc, which outperformed copper, nickel, lead, and aluminium last month, reached its highest level in nearly four years, at $3,658 a metric ton. Tighter-than-expected supply has prompted analysts to revise up their 2026 price forecasts, but while they see zinc remaining elevated in the second half of ?the year, they don't expect it to hold on to current levels above $3,500. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum analyst, said that China's production of steel in 2026 will be lower than its five- to six-year rolling average. Price said that if steel production falls, it will be a primary driver of demand for zinc. He believes the metal could drop to $3,100 per ton by the end of the fourth quarter. BMI, an arm of Fitch Solutions, predicts that zinc prices will drop further, to $3,000, by the end of this year, due to the long-term positioning caused by an explosion and fire at Kazzinc’s smelter in May, as well as a fire at Nexa Resources’ Cajamarquilla facility. BMI stated in a report that "prices will likely ease from their current levels, as the headline-driven premium associated with recent supply disruptions diminishes and?the market moves to a narrow surplus." This year, the market is estimated at 14 million tons. Jonathan Leng is Wood Mackenzie’s research director of zinc markets. He expects the price to drop to $3,350 at end-2026 with a global demand growth rate of only 0.9%. He still predicts an 80,000 ton deficit, and warns LME Zinc stocks Just over 100,000 tons is?only a thin cushion. Leng stated that "if there is any further disruption in smelting, we could see a spike higher." Leng stated that the recent opening of the arbitrage windows to ship zinc from Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses to LME could lower LME prices. ShFE zinc stocks Shanghai zinc has increased by less than 3% in the past year, despite being at a record high.
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Investors' gold prices remain stable as they weigh US-Iran developments and Fed signals
?Gold held firm on 'Monday as investors assessed the escalating 'U.S.-Iran Conflict, which boosted energy prices and clouded prospects for U.S. Interest Rates. As of 9:25 am EDT (1325 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $4,011.96 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.1% to $4015.80. The yields on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note increased by 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar was up by 0.1%, making bullion prices more expensive for foreign buyers. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they had attacked U.S. military equipment across the Middle East, after another night of U.S. bombing of Iranian cities. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis also declared a?naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Brent crude oil prices have stabilized after reaching a high of more than a month, fueling inflation fears and?betting on higher interest rates for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can reduce its appeal. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that "higher energy prices are still in focus" as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East adds to the concern that the Fed's less than expected data on inflation last week may not be sufficient to prevent them from raising rates this year. Cleveland - Fed President Beth Hammack has added her voice in a growing chorus that believes interest rates need to be raised to combat persistent inflation. This will set up a heated debate at the Fed meeting next week and could lead to dissensions during Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as chairman of the central bank. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect an interest rate increase in the U.S. by December. This is up from?73% a week ago. "We expect the Fed to use balance sheet adjustments, and not raise rates until later in this year. Meger stated that we believe the'realization' of this will actually add some support to the gold price and pressure on the dollar in the next month or two. Other than that, silver spot gained 1.7%, to $56.87 an ounce. Platinum was down by 0.3%, at $1,586.21 and palladium climbed 1.3%, to $1,264.34. (Reporting from Noel John in Bengaluru and Vedika Thorat; editing by Leroy Leo).
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India's infrastructure production rises by 5% in June, according to a new series
India's infrastructure production grew by?5% in June, the fastest pace in five months. The data was released as part of a new series that uses?2022-23 for the base year. The government released a new series on Monday, replacing the 2011-12 base years and expanding the core sector basket from eight industries to nine, including iron ore. According to the latest data from the government, infrastructure output grew by a revised 3.2% compared to a year earlier in May. The revised series shows that it grew faster than 5.2% last in January. KEY NUMBERS * The Cement production rose by 9.8% in June, compared to an 8.4% rise in May. * The?production of steel?increased by 4.6%?last month compared to an increase of 5.1% in May, which was revised. * Electricity production increased 9.8% in June compared to an increase of 11.2% in May, which was revised. * The coal production increased by 1.4% in the month of June compared with a 9.5% fall that was revised for the previous month. *?Iron Ore Production rose 43.9% from a revised 19% increase in May. * Crude oil production fell by 4.2% in June. This is the same as in May, when it was revised down. * Fertiliser output fell 3.3% in June after a revised 1% decline in May. *?Natural Gas Production shrank 7.4% in July, compared to an earlier revised decline of 5%. * The output of refinery products fell by 4.7% in June, compared to a fall of 8.2% a month earlier. * The growth in infrastructure output for April-June was 3.6%, compared to a revised 1.0% during the same period last year. (Reporting and editing by Eileen Soreng, Sarita Chaganti-Singh, and Shivangi-Acharya)
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What is China's next surprise on the oil market? Lower fuel imports and higher fuel exports: Russell
China's reaction to the conflict in Iran is not surprising, but the magnitude of the cuts. China's track record is one of consistently reducing?crude imports to lower prices and increasing arrivals when the price drops. The collapse of imports in June to their lowest level in almost 10 years was 'dramatic', particularly given that, even though crude prices?surge? in the weeks following the U.S. & Israel attack on Iran in February -28, they didn't reach the levels reached in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. China's crude imports in June were 7,12 million barrels a day (bpd), down 41.3% on the same month of last year and the lowest since October 2016. A drop of this magnitude would normally have led to a huge drawdown on China's inventory, but that didn't occur. Refiners in China reduced processing rates in June to 12,47 million bpd, a 17.7% drop from the same period in 2025. This is the lowest level since March 2020 during the COVID-19 Pandemic. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of strategic and commercial stocks, but an estimate can be made if you subtract the amount of oil that has been processed from total crude from both imports and domestic production. This means that refiners have a total of 11,53 million bpd. The 12.27 million bpd they processed meant that approximately 940,000 bpd were drawn from inventory, a significant increase from the 500,000 bpd of May. China, despite drawing from its stockpiles over the past two month, still added to its reserves in the first half, with a surplus of crude oil around 530,000 barrels per day. China's ability to reduce refinery runs in June was partly due to Beijing placing unofficial export restrictions on refined products. This was seen as a "measure" to ensure a sufficient supply of fuels for the domestic market, during the conflict with Iran. According to commodity analysts Kpler's data, China exported 393,000 barrels per day of light and medium distillates in June. This is slightly less than the 400,000 barrels per day in May, but higher than the 54-month-low of 338,000 barrels per day in April. It is clear that China played a major role in adjusting the demand for crude oil throughout the current Iran Crisis, which saw the loss of approximately 10 million bpd of supply of crude oil and refined products due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. China's exports have been reduced since April. What will China do to respond to the current crisis? Prices are key China could be planning another surprise for the markets if the answer is seen through the prisms of prices. China's crude imports are expected to recover in August and September, as refiners have likely purchased cargoes that were able to leave the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. The market expected a return of normal Middle East supply and, therefore, a glut. Benchmark Brent futures fell to $70.14 per barrel on July 2. They had been as high at $126.41 at end of April. Brent oil prices rose to $90.80 per barrel on Monday morning in the early Asian trading session, despite the return of hostilities. China's refiners will likely reduce imports as crude prices rebound. This means lower arrivals in October, given the time lag between cargoes being arranged and delivered. What happens to China's refined products exports? Beijing is confident that it will be able to survive on its huge stockpiles. Its crude oil reserves are estimated at 1.2 billion barrels. China could also be tempted by the opportunity to take advantage of high margins in Asia. Gasoil (the building block of diesel) ended July 17 at $143.03 per barrel, a $54.93 premium to the Brent closing prices and almost three times that $18.94 markup on February 27th, the day before Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran. Kpler has tracked shipments of 787,000 BPD of light and medium distillates in July. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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India's coal power plants say they have enough stocks despite increasing demand
India's coal-fired plants have enough?coal to operate for two weeks at higher rates. This eases concerns about fuel shortages due to a?rising demand for electricity and a?lower-than-average rainfall during the monsoon season. The power ministry said in a response to the parliament that coal stocks at power stations stood at 42,8 million tonnes on July 12. This is enough for 14 full days of operation with an 85% load factor. It added that utilities are also able to obtain enough coal to meet their daily needs. The peak demand for power in India increased last week by nearly 270.1 gigawatts, mainly due to the?cooling of demand. El Nino has contributed to a?weaker rain. The government is expecting India's peak power demand to reach 280 GW due to the lack of strong monsoon rainfall this year. * Coal is still the mainstay of India's power system, despite its aggressive expansion in renewable energy. According to the Ministry, coal and lignite fired plants generated approximately?75%?of power during non-solar peak demand hours. According to the power ministry, the government has increased coordination between?the coal and power ministries in order to monitor supplies and prioritise coal transportation to power plants. The government reported that India added 9.47 GW in coal-fired generation capacity between 2025 and 26 and 2.26 GW from April to July. This helped support the record-breaking electricity demand. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Sethuraman N.R.)
Pennon UK returns to profit in annual report; CEO warns about operational work ahead
The British water utility Pennon Group reported a profit on Wednesday. However, its new CEO warned that operational discipline was needed to improve after extreme weather conditions and rising performance targets led to regulatory penalties.
South West Water's?owner? posted an adjusted profit of PS135.1 (US$180.95) million for the year ending March 31. This is after a PS35.1 loss in the previous year. Regulated water revenues increased by around 25% on higher tariffs and consumption.
Below are some details.
* Chief Executive Keith Haslett stated that "Improving the operational discipline and capital delivery will be key to meeting our commitments."
* A net operational penalty of approximately PS42 million was a result of exceptional storms, sustained rain and stepped up?performance targets? and penalty rates at the beginning of the new 5-year regulatory cycle.
Pennon's financial performance is expected to continue improving as revenues increase and the company continues its focus on cost control.
* The company has forecasted higher revenues in 2026/27, and said it expects the core profit to increase by 5-10% per year.
* "We're well-positioned for anticipated changes in the water sector, and are ready to support the government's Transition Plan," said the company. It added that an update on the strategic plan would be released before the end of September.
*?The reported year saw capital expenditures of PS643.6m, with PS588.5m in the water business, part of an investment programme of PS3.2bn, which runs until?2030.
* Pennon’s revenue for 2025/2026?also increased to PS1.29billion, up from PS1.05billion a year earlier.
(source: Reuters)