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US retail sales decline for the first time in nine months, in July
Retail sales in the United States fell for the first nine months in July as the boost from large tax refunds faded. This suggests a significant slowdown in spending by consumers at the beginning of the third quarter. It was also a payback for Amazon's decision to move its Prime Day event from July to June, while other retailers offered competing promotions. Gasoline prices have also fallen, which has affected service station receipts. The report, which added to the unexpected job losses and mild inflation figures from last month, boosted financial market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. This is assuming that August's price and employment data are not surprising. Sal Guatieri is a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets. This, along with a weaker job report and subdued CPI core inflation, increases the odds that the FOMC will remain patient in September. The Census Bureau of the Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 0.6% in July after an unrevised gain of 0.2% in June. This was the first decline since October last year and the largest one in 14 months. Retail sales, which are mainly goods and not adjusted for inflation but are a major part of retail sales, were expected to increase by 0.1%, according to economists polled. Estimates ranged between a 0.5% decline and a 0.7% rise. Retail sales in July increased by 5.0% on an annual basis. Economists say that consumers are more?sensitive to price increases and are making more deliberate and selective purchases. Sales at non-store retailers fell by 2.2% in the last month. Motor vehicle and parts dealers saw their receipts plummet by 1.8%. Sales at electronic and appliance stores dropped by 0.5%, while receipts at service station fell by 0.9% due to lower gasoline prices. Clothing sales rebounded by 1.9% in the last quarter, likely due to back-to school shopping. CONSUMERS STILL Eating Out The only component of the report that deals with services, receipts from food and drink establishments, increased by 0.5%, after increasing by 0.4% in June. This category is a key indicator of household finances. Sales at retailers of furniture, building materials, garden equipment, and supplies, as well as health and personal care stores, increased. The sales of?sporting good, hobby, musical instruments and book retailers remained unchanged. The generous tax refunds in this year have helped soften the blow of higher gasoline prices due to the Middle East conflict. This has led to a robust second quarter in consumer spending. The economists say that these refunds are 'exhausted. They did not expect a drop in consumer spending, but a stock-market rally had boosted household wealth. S&P 500 has increased by 14% this year, after rising 16.4% in 2025. PNC Financial economists said that an analysis of bank data revealed that households were more sensitive to gasoline price increases in July than they had been earlier in the year. This created a less favorable backdrop for spending during the second half of this year. They said that it was "difficult" to imagine a scenario in which spending would truly roll over, given the increase in household wealth. The researchers also pointed out that "increasing evidence" showed upper-income households and older households using wealth gains as a way to fund spending. Retail sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline and building materials, fell by 0.4% last month, after an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in June. Economists had forecast that these core retail sales, the component most closely associated with consumer spending in gross domestic product (GDP), would rise 0.3%, after an earlier reported 0.5% growth in June. In the second quarter, consumer spending, which makes up more than two thirds of the GDP, grew at an annualized rate of 3.2%. Last quarter, the economy grew by 1.5%.
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Wildfires in Britain reach record levels following intense heat
Fire chiefs warned that wildfires have reached a record in England and Wales. They also said that rescue services are struggling to keep up with the rising risks. This comes a day after wildfires swept from tinder dry fields to engulf homes on the hottest day. Britain may not have faced the same devastation as Spain, France, and other parts of Europe, but it has seen more fires than ever before. Phil Garrigan is the chair of the National Fire Chiefs Council. He said that the number of fires has now exceeded the total of last year, which was 1,017. Garrigan, without revealing the latest figures for this year, said: "We have far exceeded the previous high from 2025." We're still in the middle of August and it seems that the wildfire season will continue into November. We're expecting this to be not only a "record-breaking" year, but also a significant increase in the number of fires. Residents tell of trees exploding in flames As fires raged in central England, hundreds of homes were destroyed on Thursday. Stourbridge resident describes the moment his family and he decided to leave their home. "I heard a shout, and the trees were exploding along the railroad track. The trees weren't only on fire; they were also exploding. Paul Nash said, "We just grabbed all the stuff and left." Nash stated that his house remained standing despite the damage to his garden. This was in contrast to other homes on his street which had been destroyed by fire. According to government figures, Britain is on course for its hottest ever summer. Five heatwaves have caused around 45 million people to live in drought-hit areas and 27 millions people face restrictions on their water usage. Met Office reports that temperatures in London reached 38.2 degrees Celsius on Thursday. This is the fifth-hottest day ever recorded for the United Kingdom. Pershore, a market town in central England, reached 38 C. This was one of many areas where flames ravaged houses and fields. On Thursday, a major motorway had to be temporarily closed and the train schedules were also affected. Officials are yet to confirm if the heat was a factor in causing a derailment of a southern England train. Garrigan stated that "we've declared eleven major incidents?over the past 24 hours." The UK Fire and Rescue Service has struggled to meet the demands of fire and emergency services.
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Brazil police target former Rio governor Castro in new investigation, say sources
Two sources familiar with this investigation said that the Brazilian federal police carried out search warrants on Friday targeting former Rio de Janeiro Governor Claudio Castro. Castro's attorney said that the authorities did not search his home in a written statement. Brazil's Federal Police said in a?statement that did not identify suspects it was investigating allegations of fraudulent and...reckless management. It also investigated money laundering, tax avoidance, capital flight, manipulations on the market, and crimes against economic order. It added that the probe was examining money laundering in relation to the scheme as well as the alleged irregularity of the issuance of environmental permits for the refinery. In May, the former governor was also targeted by a second investigation into alleged tax evasion. Castro resigned in March. A court ruled that Castro could not hold office for the next eight years due to abuse of political and economic power and illegal fundraising. (Reporting and writing by Rodrigo Viga Gaier, Isabel Teles, Editing by Alex Richardson).
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Wildfires sweeping across Europe force hundreds of people to evacuate from resorts located in Croatia and Greece
Wildfires ravaged?homes overnight in a picturesque Croatian town, injuring forty people and forcing 1,200 residents to evacuate. EU officials warned that "extreme" wildfire conditions were spreading across the continent. Officials said that hundreds more people were evacuated from a resort in northern Greece, a village in southwest France and a large grass fire in England. Scientists attribute the record-breaking heat in Europe and the drought to climate change. This summer, wildfires have been raging across Europe, particularly in France, Spain, and Greece. The Balkans has also experienced several heatwaves. CROATIAN RESERVE: FLAMES TAKE OVER NIGHT-SKY RED Officials said that flames engulfed settlements and trees covering a total of?over 1000 hectares around Omis. Omis is a picturesque town located on Croatia's Dalmatian Coast, surrounded by trees, hills and rocks. The fire turned the night sky red. Slavko Slavkovic, Chief Fire Commander said that the fire "swept all in its path... There has been enormous material damage." He added that the fire seemed to have calmed down on Friday morning, with no visible flames. Health officials reported that seven of the 40 patients treated by ambulances were in serious condition. DINGHIES HELP RESCUE FROM GREEK SEASIDE TOWN People wearing masks, many with children or pets in tow, boarded boats and dinghies at the seaside town of Siviri, as a forest burned and smoke columns turned the clear sky dark grey. The coastguard said that over 300 people were evacuated from the town by boat. The town is located on a peninsula with woodlands, olive groves, and beaches, south of Greece's largest city, Thessaloniki. In addition to 140 firefighters, seven helicopters and nine aircraft, fishing boats were also used in the evacuation. Authorities in France evacuated 525 residents from Luglon after a wildfire broke. The fire was located near an area that had been devastated by major fires earlier this summer. Authorities in Spain removed remains of three kings from a monastery that was threatened by wildfire in the 11th century. Wildfire conditions in Europe are 'VERY EXTREME.' In its forecast for the week ending August 19, Copernicus?Climate Change Service of the European Union warned of "very?extreme conditions" across a large region of central and east Europe. Additional pockets were also noted over southern Britain, Ireland and northern France, as well as southern Sweden. Climate Monitor data showed that the average high temperature in Western Europe was expected to be 31.2° Celsius (88° Fahrenheit) on Friday. This is 8 C (14 F), or 14 F, above the 1961-1990 norm. It said that the temperature in Europe was 1.6 C (2.9 F), or 8 C, above 1961-1990's average. The dry, hot summer has also taken a toll on the agriculture. The French grain maize crop is expected to reach its lowest level since the 1970s as a result of severe heat and drought this summer, according to growers' association AGPM. Reporting by Alexandros Lisardakis and Antonis Pohitos in Greece; Daria Sito Sucic in Bosnia and Herzegovina; Stephanie Lecocq and Gus Trompiz, in France and Spain, and Conor Humphries, in Spain.
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Oil rally eclipsed by US inflation as stocks nudge to record highs
Oil prices rose on Friday as faltering negotiations to end the Iran war pushed global stocks higher. As the impasse in the peace talks continued, oil and gas prices are still expected to make a significant weekly gain. Investors are not showing any signs of panic. This week, short-dated bond rates have increased, but modestly. Meanwhile, several market-based inflation expectations measures have continued their downward trend. Gold, which is hurt by rising interest rates, has reached two-month highs. The focus is now on AI as a whole, following strong earnings which have helped to calm investor concerns about massive AI spending. GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS The MSCI All-World Index, which has been up for the third week in a row, is trading just below records highs. In Europe, the STOXX600 gauge was a tad lower than the previous day as losses in tech were largely offset by gains among capital-intensive stocks such as automakers and defence. The markets ended the week with a 'positive note,' as the corporate and economic calendar was relatively free of event risks. It's Friday and, as is typical, geopolitical risk, or at the very least, bombastic rhetoric between the U.S. "At the moment, geopolitical uncertainties remain the only major macro-roadblock for a market that is experiencing'strong tailwinds due to earnings and monetary policy outlook. Brent crude futures remained steady at $87 per barrel and were on track for a weekly gain of 6%. European natural gas futures are expected to rise by 10%, while U.S. Gas futures will see a 3.2% increase. The VIX volatility index - which many see as the "fear index" of the market - was on track for its fourth consecutive weekly decline, the longest stretch of this kind since May 2025. This reflects the decreasing level of concern among equity investors. A measure of bond market volatilty is also heading for a second successive weekly drop. John Sidawi is a senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes for fixed income. He said that a puzzling trend in the markets over the past few months has been a growing disconnect between geopolitical uncertainties and asset price volatility. For now, the markets seem to be willing to accept a considerable amount of uncertainty before demanding higher premiums. This equilibrium is not likely to last forever," Sidawi stated. "A meaningful escalation of conflict or a clearly defined?path towards resolution could finally force the investors to leave, potentially triggering much greater volatility than current market prices suggest." The yen is stuck in an intervention loop. According to three sources who are familiar with the policymakers' thoughts, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as September. It is still within reach of the 160 level, which traders believe could trigger a second round of yen purchases from Tokyo after a joint intervention by the U.S. Last month, the Japanese currency was not supported. Padhraic G Garvey, ING's head of global rates strategy and debt, explained that the yen is weak because of "an uber cautious Bank of Japan" and a policy interest rate which remains too low. Garvey said that rate increases can ease this tension. The sooner they are implemented, the better. While that may be seen as a negative for the economy, there is also a choice. Do you want to protect the yen or not? Prioritise the protection of the yen, or not? (Additional reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Singapore; editing by Sonali Paul and Alex Richardson)
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Tata Steel, the Indian soccer giant, sells top-flight team Jamshedpur to a rival for $1
Tata Steel has sold its entire stake in Indian Super League club Jamshedpur FC for 100 Indian Rupees ($1.05) to Goa-based Churchill Brothers on Friday. This comes two weeks after the conglomerate announced that it would be 'pulling out' of the ISL. Tata Steel announced that Churchill Brothers, the two-time national champions, will be taking over Jamshedpur’s sports licence to compete in the ISL and the contracts for 12 players and 2 coaches. Tata Steel Vice President of Corporate Services D. B. Sundara Ramam said, "We're glad this agreement allows our players and coaches to continue playing club soccer." Jamshedpur's players made an emotional appeal to their club's owners earlier this month to reconsider the decision to close the club. The club won the ISL League Winners' Shield for 2021-22, and the domestic Super Cup in the past year. Jamshedpur's fans flooded the streets in the days that followed to plead with the Tata Group to save the club. But Friday's announcement ended all their hopes. Churchill Brothers, located in the soccer-mad state Goa, is now the sole team in Jamshedpur. Jamshedpur is still in the Durand Cup and will play Mohun Bagan on Monday in the quarterfinals. TATA EXIT AMID UNCERTAINTY ISL Jamshedpur entered the ISL league in 2017, when it was sponsored by the Indian conglomerate Reliance. They are leaving the league less than one year after All India Football Federation's commercial partnership ended with Reliance. The ISL is yet to announce the fixtures for this season and the broadcaster. Sundara Ramam said, "We are grateful to AIFF and Churchill Brothers who have made this transition smooth." The AIFF has declined to comment. "BACK TO WHERE WE BEONG" SAY THE CHURCHILL BROTHERS Churchill Brothers, who played in India's top division last in 2013-14, hoped to get promoted to the ISL in 2024-25 after winning the second-tier I-League. The?AIFF appeals panel ruled Inter Kashi forfeited several matches because they fielded an ineligible player. Kashi won their appeal at the Court of Arbitration for Sport and overturned the decision. They became champions. Churchill Brothers withdrew the following season from the league. The club posted a picture on Instagram saying, "We needed to be back home where we belong." "Our President Churchill Alemao... never stopped believing. He always finds a solution. While others saw decline, opportunity was what we saw. "While some saw the end of things, we saw a new beginning."
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HEALTH RUNDS-An experimental blood test detects high-risk lesions of the colon before cancer develops
In lab tests, we also found that a flavoring chemical in e-cigarettes damages human embryonic cells. A BLOOD TEST CAN DISCOVER PRE-CANCEROUS COLORECTAL LEES Researchers say that an experimental blood test for the detection of colorectal carcinoma also has promise as a way to prevent it. Commercially, there are several blood tests for colorectal screening. However, the new test can also detect precancerous polyps called advanced adenomas. The removal of these polyps may prevent cancerous cells from developing. The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology reported that they tested the assay on more than 1,500 adult participants in colonoscopy programs in China. Japan and Spain. They found that it detected 92% colorectal cancers in stage I, II or III and 81% advanced adenomas. The test also had a 85% accuracy rate in identifying those without precancerous lesion. In an editorial, researchers who were not involved in the study stated that "developing an acceptable, feasible and non-invasive test which can accurately detect precancerous colorectal lesions" could be a valuable tool in preventing colorectal carcinoma, as opposed to only detecting it. Researchers said that because the blood test can differentiate between low-risk and high-risk cancers and adenomas the test could be used to stratify the risk of patients who need an urgent colonoscopy. Colonoscopy is still the best method to screen for colorectal cancer. Blood tests and stool tests are only recommended for those who refuse or cannot comply. Studies have shown that patients who test positive for colonoscopies will be more likely to follow through. Researchers believe that larger trials of this new blood test is still required, mainly because it detected polyps (small bumps or growths) but was less effective in identifying flat or sessile areas of concern. E-CIGARETTE FLAVORING MAY IMPAIR EMBRYO DÉVELOPMENT Laboratory experiments indicate that a flavoring chemical used in high concentrations by e-cigarettes can disrupt the normal embryonic development in women who are pregnant and vape. Researchers investigated the effects on the flavoring vanillin using test tubes, as it would have been unethical to use the chemical in human embryos or pregnant women. The experiments showed that the human embryonic stem cell lines, which are similar to the ones found in embryos of three-week-old embryos, could differentiate into any kind of cell. Researchers found that when cells were exposed to micromolar amounts of vanillin they would tend to die, while nanomolar levels caused them to lose the ability to develop into all cell types. In a press release, Prue Talbot of University of California Riverside stated that "these changes?could be very serious and prevent normal development of an embryo." On the surface of embryonic cells, a protein known as TRPV4?binds to vanillin. Researchers found that when they blocked the action of the protein, vanillin's effect on?stem cell was also blocked. This led them to conclude that TRPV4 is responsible for the flavor's effect on cells. Researchers warn that test tube results do not guarantee the same effect would be seen in women or their embryos. In a report in Human Reproduction, researchers said that the study could 'help explain why vaping is linked to women who have?difficulty in conceiving or miscarriages. Talbot stated that women are not always aware of the chemicals contained in vape products. Our findings suggest that women should be cautious, and doctors should advise them not to vape while pregnant. This is especially true if they have trouble conceiving.
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Could Germany operate some of its coal-fired plants longer?
Germany has delayed its interim report on the impact of the 'lignite-out' in its largest state. This is fueling market expectations that the government may decide to run some plants a little longer than originally planned. Here is a brief summary?of the issue: What has happened? Germany and its largest power producer RWE agreed in 2022 to phase out lignite-fired electricity production in North Rhine-Westphalia by March 2030, eight years earlier than the national coal phase-out goal. By 2026, it can determine if the plan is working or if the security of supply of RWE's coal plants is in danger. This week, the economy ministry delayed the release of an interim report on impact of phase-out by August 15 to wait until the results of the tenders for gas-fired?power?plants that are taking place this year. Lignite is one of the most polluting fossil fuels. Why does it matter? Market expectations have been stoked by the delay. Germany may choose to place some RWE lignite plant with a capacity of 3.6 gigawatts until 2033 on'security standby' to meet demand. When asked about the issue?on Thursday?, RWE Chief executive Markus Krebber stated that the 2030 date had not changed and the government hadn't contacted the company for an extension. CAN GERMANY DO WELL WITHOUT?COAL? Technically, yes. There are?266 GW installed, but two thirds of this capacity is intermittent, as it comes from wind and solar farms that cannot provide a continuous supply. The planned coal-exit in Germany has led to a heated debate about whether Germany has sufficient baseload capacity. This was a major factor?in the decision to tender for new gas-fired plant?capacity. The far-right Alternative for Germany,?Germany’s largest opposition party, which currently leads national polls, is against the country's coal, nuclear, and other energy exit. They demand a reversal in order to avoid blackouts. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Holger Hansen, Christoph Steitz)
Gold increases as oil declines due to a pause in US/Iran strikes. Fed rate decision is in focus
Gold prices rose Monday as a pause between hostilities between the United States of America and Iran sent crude oil to a new low. This eased inflation fears ahead of this week's U.S. rate decision.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,074.22 an ounce at 1:45 pm EDT (1745 GMT), whereas U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery settled 0.2% higher, at $4,077.00.
The U.S. Dollar?index has weakened by 0.1%, allowing buyers to purchase greenback bullion at a lower price.
Bart Melek is global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.
Brent futures dropped over 8%, to a new low in a week as?U.S. Donald Trump said to reporters that "good talks" are taking place with Iran "right away".
After two weeks of strikes, the two countries have paused their attacks over the weekend. This has raised hopes of a diplomatic resolution that will de-escalate this conflict and allow shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to resume.
Lower energy costs ease inflation fears and reduce bets on higher interest rates for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation but higher rates can weigh down on the metal.
CME FedWatch data shows that traders see a 62% chance of the policymakers keeping interest rates unchanged.
They are, however,?pricing about an 82% chance that the U.S. will raise rates in September.
Investors are also awaiting the U.S. The Personal Consumption Spending data for June is due Thursday. This will provide further clues on monetary policy.
Data from Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department revealed that China's net imports of gold via Hong Kong had more than doubled from June to the same month last year, but were down?more? than 5% on the previous months.
(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid, Jan Harvey and Joyjeet Das) (Reporting from Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Tasimzahid, Jan Harvey and Joyjeet Das.
(source: Reuters)