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After Trump's Russia-Utterance, oil prices remain steady
The oil prices rose in early trading Wednesday, after rising by more than 3% the previous session. This was due to the potential shortages that could arise after U.S. president Donald Trump gave Moscow a short deadline for ending the conflict in Ukraine. Brent crude futures rose by 14 cents or 0.19% to $72.65 a barge at 0048 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude climbed by 2 cents or 0.03% to $69.23 a barge. On Tuesday, both contracts settled at their highest level since June 20. Trump announced on Tuesday that he would begin imposing measures against Russia, including 100% secondary duties on its trading partners if the country did not end the war in 10-12 days. This was a move up from an earlier deadline of 50 days. "Secondary 100% tariffs in effect would cause a dramatic change on the oil market." ING analysts stated that a number of major buyers of Russian crude oil, especially large U.S. traders, would be reluctant to keep buying it. While this allows OPEC+ to begin unwinding further tranches of the supply cuts, a worst case scenario would still see a market deficit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the U.S. warned China, which is the biggest buyer of Russian crude oil, it would face large tariffs if they continued to buy. The U.S. and the EU were holding trade negotiations in Stockholm. Analysts from JP Morgan said that India had signaled its willingness to comply with U.S. Sanctions, putting at risk 2.3 million barrels of Russian oil per day. The U.S.-EU avoided a trade conflict with a deal which included 15% U.S. Tariffs on European Imports. This eased concerns over the impact of trade tensions and economic growth, and offered further support for oil prices. After talks last week on the topic, foreign partners of Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA still await authorizations from the U.S. This could bring some supply back to the market and ease pressure to increase prices. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman; Colleen Howe)
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Bloomberg News reports that US Fermilab was hit by a cyberattack against Microsoft SharePoint.
Bloomberg News, citing an official from the Department of Energy, reported that one of 17 national laboratories of the U.S. Department of Energy was targeted by hackers in a recent hacking campaign to exploit vulnerabilities in Microsoft's SharePoint. A spokesperson for the Department of Energy told Bloomberg that "attackers did try to access Fermilab’s SharePoint servers", referring to U.S. Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The impact of the attack was minimal. No sensitive or classified information was accessed, the spokesperson added, Fermilab servers are now back online and operating normally. Microsoft, Fermilab, and the U.S. Department of Energy have not responded to our requests for comment. Microsoft's security patch, released last month, failed to fix a critical vulnerability in its SharePoint server software. The flaw was identified by the U.S. technology giant in May. This opened the door for a global cyber-espionage campaign. According to its website, Fermilab was established in 1967 and is "America's accelerator and particle physics laboratory". A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Energy said last week that on July 18, a security flaw in SharePoint affected its systems, including the National Nuclear Security Administration which oversees the nation’s nuclear weapons inventory. The department has stated that all affected system are being restored. Reporting by Abu Sultan from Bengaluru, Editing by Sandra Maler, Muralikumar Aantharaman
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Petrobras oil production rises 7.6% during Q2 due to increased production vessels
Petrobras, the state-owned oil company in Brazil, reported that it produced 2,32 million barrels per day of oil in Brazil during its second quarter. This represents a 7.6% increase over the same period the previous year. New production vessels have increased the output. The firm reported that four floating production ships increased their output in the second quarter. One reached its peak production, and another began operations before schedule. This boosted the output for the entire period. Petrobras totaled 2.91 million barrels equivalents per day (boed), up 7.8% on the year before, while sales of oil and gas, as well as derivatives, reached 2.98 millions boed. This represents a 1.6% rise. Petrobras said that its exports of crude oil and derivatives increased by 2.7%, to 874,000 barrels a day. China received 54% of all the oil exported by the company during the period. This is four percentage points more than the same period in the previous year. Around 8% of the oil exported to the United States in 2024 will be received by this country, up from around 5% in second quarter 2024. Magda Chabriard, Petrobras' Chief Executive, spoke to the media earlier this month. The firm could redirect oil sold to the U.S. to Asia and Pacific if the U.S. imposes higher tariffs on the South American nation. Reporting by Fabio Téixeira and Marta Nogueira, Rio de Janeiro. Additional reporting by Andre Romani, Sao Paulo. Editing by Kyrry Madry and Chris Reese.
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The Indonesian nickel slump puts pressure on coal miners hit by declining exports
The Indonesian coal producers find themselves in a difficult situation, as their exports are falling and the demand for fuel from nickel smelters is at an all-time high. This creates a conundrum of growth. Indonesia's largest export is coal, which will generate $30.49 billion by 2024. A decline in revenues would have an adverse effect on Southeast Asia's largest economy, which is heavily dependent on commodities. Lower profit margins and falling share prices point to coal's future woes, which include a reduction in workforce, a slowdown in production, and less money going into government coffers, at a time that President Prabowo is launching ambitious spending plans. The fastest-growing demand for Indonesian coal has been from electricity-hungry smelters that process nickel. According to the Indonesian Coal Miners Association, (ICMA), the demand for nickel will reach a peak of 84.2 million tonnes by 2026, and then fall to 78.6 millions tons in 2027 due to overcapacity of the nickel industry and possible implementation of stricter emission regulations. Kpler data showed that Indonesian coal exports were down 12.6% by volume compared to a year ago, while government data indicated a 19.1% drop in value. Chinese data show that exports to China, which is the largest coal buyer in the world, dropped by 30% compared to a year ago. The country relies more on its domestic production and uses low prices to import coal of higher quality from other countries. Manish Gupta is a senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie for Asia thermal coal. He said that Indonesian coal miners were diversifying their businesses to protect themselves against the steeply declining demand for low to mid-grade coal. He said that he did not expect to see the increase in the number of captive plants, which are power plants linked to nickel smelting facilities. According to Global Energy Monitor's coal plant tracker, Indonesia's nickel smelting sector has led to a threefold increase in Indonesian coal-fired power capacity from 5.5 gigawatts in 2019 to 16.6 GW by 2024. As nickel prices fell due to increased overcapacity, and China's lower stainless steel imports, some Indonesian smelters idled their facilities. Data from geospatial analysis firm Earth-i revealed that in June, Indonesian nickel pig-iron operations experienced a 9% increase in smelting activity compared to a year ago, which was the highest level in the past two years. This is primarily because the country's largest nickel producer, Tsingshan, likely stopped production at its joint-venture plants in Morowali Industrial Park. H. Kristiono is the deputy chairman of ICMA which includes Adaro Bayan Bukit Asam and foreign traders Adani Global Trafigura. He still expects that the coal-fired capacity of the smelter sector will grow despite underutilisation. The nickel industry will continue to use coal as its primary power source due to difficulties in switching to alternative sources, the slow progress of connecting sites to national grids and Indonesia's opposition to more stringent regulations. Global Coal Monitor reports that the Global Coal Monitor estimates that Central Sulawesi, North Maluku and Central Sulawesi provinces are expected to have a combined capacity of 6 GW, or 46%, of all coal-fired plants currently under construction in Indonesia. These two provinces are where the nickel processing industry is concentrated. Companies are squeezed Indonesian coal producers are being squeezed by a combination of lower exports, slower growth in captive power demand and higher government payments. LSEG data revealed that the profit margins of Bayan, a major miner in Indonesia, have been falling for three years. Bukit Asam has also seen its first-quarter margins fall below averages every year since 2010. This is due to higher royalty payments and increasing machinery costs. The shares of Indonesia's five largest coal producers by production are down between 1% and 18% in this year. This is below the broader market growth rate of almost 7%. Adaro has fallen 18% while Golden Energy Mines, Bukit Asam and Bukit Asam lost over a tenth since the start of this year. Requests for comment from the companies were not answered. Indonesia announced in April new rates of royalty for nickel, coal and other minerals, to help Prabowo increase his spending. Some coal miners experienced a drop in their royalty rates, while others saw an increase of 1 percentage point. According to the Energy Shift Institute, based in Australia, by 2024 royalties will account for 16% of average coal producers' cost structures, making them the most expensive among the major commodities produced in Indonesia. Jakarta also considers export duties on coal for certain price levels in order to bolster state coffers. This is at a moment when miners are already facing higher fuel prices due to the removal biodiesel subsidy. Analysts say that some coal miners are looking at diversification as a way to survive the current downturn, but they have made little progress. Bukit Asam said, for instance, in May that it was considering an investment of $3.1 billion in a facility to convert coal into synthetic natural gas. Gupta, of Wood Mackenzie, said that producers are looking at a combination of downstream options, renewables, or investment in alternative commodities. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Ashitha Shivaprasad, Hongmei LI, Fransiska Nanangoy; Additional reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan).
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Sources say that the head of TotalEnergies' trading arm for Americas gasoline has left for a hedge fund.
Three sources with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday that the head of Americas gas for TotalEnergies trading arm Atlantic Trading & Marketing Inc has left to join a hedge-fund. Two sources confirmed that Gregory Galimberti resigned in the last few days from his position at ATMI to join Verition Fund Management. This hedge fund is based in Greenwich, Connecticut. Sources requested anonymity in order to discuss personnel matters. Galimberti didn't immediately respond to an inquiry on LinkedIn. TotalEnergies ATMI and Verition did not respond immediately to comments. According to his LinkedIn profile, Galimberti has been the manager of ATMI's Americas light fuels division since January 2020. This includes gasoline and naphtha. His LinkedIn profile indicated that he had worked for rival trading firms Mercuria Energy, and Glencore before joining ATMI. Commodities traders made record profits over the past few years. They rode a wave volatility that was induced into the market by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This has sparked interest from hedge funds, financial speculators and others in the commodities sector. Verition was founded in 2008. It has experienced rapid growth in the last few years. To strengthen its ranks, it has added senior traders in its different focus areas such as equities and credit. According to public records, the hedge fund managed assets worth around $12 billion as of April. Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York, Georgina Mcartney in Houston and Liz Hampton, Denver; editing by Ni Williams
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UN emergency talks on COP30 costs
According to diplomats, and a document viewed by, the United Nations climate bureau met urgently on Tuesday due to concerns that high accommodation costs for this year's COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil would price out poorer countries from participating in negotiations. Brazil is gearing up to host the U.N. Climate Summit in November this year in the rainforest city Belem. Nearly every government will be present to discuss their efforts to combat climate change. Preparations for COP30 have been plagued by concerns about logistics. The COP30 has been plagued by concerns about logistics. Richard Muyungi (chair of the African Group of Negotiators) called an emergency meeting of "COP Bureau" of the U.N. Climate body on Tuesday. Brazil agreed to address the concerns of countries about accommodation, and report back on another meeting on 11 August. After the meeting, Muyungi said: "We have been assured that on November 11th we will review the situation to confirm whether or not the accommodations will be sufficient for all the delegates." He said that African countries did not want to reduce their participation due to the costs. "We're not ready to reduce the numbers. Brazil has a number of options to have a better, good COP. We are therefore pushing Brazil to give better answers rather than tell us to limit our delegaiton," Muyungi stated. One diplomat who attended the meeting reported that both wealthy and poor nations complained about the cost of living. The agenda of Tuesday's meeting was seen by and confirmed that it was convened in order to discuss "operational and logistics preparations for Climate Change Conference at Belem", and the African Group of Negotiators concerns about the matter. The Brazilian Foreign Ministry didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Brazilian officials who organized the summit repeatedly assured that countries with lower incomes would have access to affordable accommodation. UNFCCC spokesperson refused to comment about the meeting. CRUISE SHIP HOTELS Brazil is in a race to increase the number of hotel rooms available to accommodate the 45,000 expected attendees at COP30. Normally, there are 18,000 beds available. Belem has a population of 1.3 millions. This month, the government announced that it had booked two cruise ships for an additional 6,000 beds. The government also offered to open bookings for developing countries to provide more affordable accommodation with daily rates up to $220. This is still more than the "daily Subsistence Allowance" that the U.N. provides to some of the poorer countries in order to support their participation in COPs. Belem's figure is $149. Two U.N. Diplomats presented quotes that they received from hotel and property managers at Belem, Brazil for rates around $700 per person/night during the COP30. Six governments, including wealthy European nations, said that they have not yet been able to secure accommodation due to high prices. Some officials also stated that they were planning on reducing their participation. The Dutch government spokesperson said that the delegation may have to be halved compared to recent COPs. In the past, the Netherlands sent 90 people for the two-week long event, which included envoys and negotiators, as well as youth representatives. Krzysztof Blesta, Poland's deputy minister of climate change, said earlier this month that "we don't have accommodations." We'll have to reduce the number of delegates to a minimum. He said that in an extreme case, he might have to cancel the meeting.
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UN emergency talks on COP30 costs
According to a document and diplomats, the United Nations climate bureau met urgently on Tuesday due to concerns that high accommodation costs for this year's COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil would exclude poorer countries from participating in the negotiations. Brazil is gearing up to host the U.N. Climate Summit in November this year in the rainforest city Belem. Nearly every government will be present to discuss their efforts to combat climate change. Preparations for COP30 have been plagued by concerns about logistics. The COP30 has been plagued by concerns about logistics. Richard Muyungi (chair of the African Group of Negotiators) called an emergency meeting of "COP Bureau" of the U.N. Climate body on Tuesday. Brazil agreed to address the concerns of countries about accommodation, and report back on another meeting on 11 August. After the meeting, Muyungi said: "We have been assured that we'll revisit this on the 11th to confirm whether the accommodations will be sufficient for all the delegates." He said that African countries did not want to reduce their participation due to the costs. "We're not ready to reduce the numbers. Brazil has a number of options to have a better, good COP. We are therefore pushing Brazil to give better answers rather than tell us to limit our delegaiton," Muyungi stated. One diplomat who attended the meeting reported that both wealthy and poor nations complained about affordability. The agenda of Tuesday's meeting was seen by and confirmed that it was convened in order to discuss "operational and logistics preparations for Climate Change Conference at Belem", and the African Group of Negotiators concerns about the matter. The Brazilian Foreign Ministry didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Brazilian officials who organized the summit repeatedly assured that countries with lower incomes would have access to affordable accommodation. CRUISE SHIP HOTELS Brazil is expanding the 18,000 beds normally available in Belem - a city on the coast with 1.3 million residents - to accommodate the approximately 45,000 attendees of the COP30. This month, the government announced that it had booked two cruise ships for an additional 6,000 beds. The government also offered to open bookings for developing countries to provide more affordable accommodation with daily rates up to $220. This is still more than the "daily Subsistence Allowance" that the U.N. provides to some of the poorer countries in order to support their participation in COPs. Belem's figure is $149. Two U.N. Diplomats presented quotes that they received from hotel and property managers at Belem, Brazil for rates around $700 per person/night during the COP30. Six governments, including wealthy European nations, said that they have not yet been able to secure accommodation due to high prices. Some officials also stated that they were planning on reducing their participation. The Dutch government spokesperson said that the delegation may have to be halved compared to recent COPs. In the past, the Netherlands sent 90 people for the two-week long event, which included envoys and negotiators, as well as youth representatives. Chris Bolesta, Poland's deputy minister of climate change, said earlier this month that "we don't have accommodations." We'll have to reduce the size of the delegation. He said that in an extreme case, he might have to cancel the meeting.
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Witnesses say that a well-known Palestinian activist has been shot dead in West Bank by a settler.
Five witnesses to the shooting said that an Israeli settler shot and killed Owdeh Hashaleen, the well-known Palestinian activist who was a consultant on the Oscar-winning film "No Other Land" in the West Bank occupied. In a Tuesday statement, the Israeli army claimed that "terrorists" hurled stones at Israeli civilians in Carmel, an Israeli settlement located near Umm al-Khair. The military reported that a civilian armed with a gun fired at those who were throwing rocks. They added that they knew of reports of injuries that had not been specified and that the incident was being handled by the police. Police said that they had begun an investigation in its "early stage" and had detained an Israeli. In a police statement, they said that four Palestinians and two foreign tourists were also arrested for their involvement in this incident. The statement said that "as a consequence of the incident, it was confirmed that a Palestinian had died." Hathaleen is the name given by Palestinian state media as to who was killed. Alaa Hathaleen - Owdeh’s cousin - filmed the incident using his mobile phone. He claimed that his cousin was "far away and doing nothing" when he got shot. Why do we always end up on the losing end, feeling this kind of pain every day, and losing people we love? Alaa Hathaleen stated in an interview. The video shows an encounter between a group screaming in Arabic, and a man with a gun. The gunman then fires in the air, towards the crowd. People can be heard screaming and seen running away. The location of the video was confirmed by the tower structure, buildings in the background and the road and village layout. These matched the satellite and file imagery. The date was not verified. Owdeh hathaleen helped the producer of "No Other Land" in 2024, which was a documentary film that documented the lives of Palestinians on the West Bank. It also included attacks by settlers. B'Tselem, along with other rights groups, say that settler violence has increased in the West Bank since Israel's start of its war in Gaza against the militant Palestinian group Hamas late in 2023. In recent years, Palestinians have killed dozens of Israelis as well in attacks on the streets. The Israeli military has also intensified raids throughout the West Bank. Around 700,000 Israelis live with 2.7 million Palestinians on the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. These are territories Israel captured in 1967 from Jordan, and which Palestinians view as a part of their future state. (Reporting and editing by Emily Rose and Yosri aljamal)
As trade optimism wanes, gold gains some ground; focus on Fed meeting
The gold price rose on Tuesday, as the initial euphoria surrounding the U.S. EU trade truce waned. Investors were looking forward to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in order to gain clarity about the U.S. rate trajectory.
As of 8:27 GMT, spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,327.30 an ounce. Bullion fell to its lowest level since July 9 Monday.
U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.5% to $3325.40.
"We're seeing a reset in sentiments after a few trade deals. But there are still some obstacles to overcome," said Ricardo Evangelista senior analyst at brokerage company ActivTrades.
If the U.S. fails to reach an agreement with China and if there is not an extension of the deadline, then we may see a return in risk off. We could also see a return in global economic uncertainty dominating investor sentiment.
On Sunday, the European Union and United States announced an agreement on tariffs that will apply to most EU exports. This is nearly three months after Britain secured a baseline tariff of 10%.
Investors pondered on the negative aspects of the U.S. EU trade agreement and realized that tariffs would be here to stay. This had unwelcome consequences for inflation and growth.
Gold is used to store value in times of political or financial uncertainty.
The top U.S. economic officials and Chinese economic officials held five-hour long talks in Stockholm, Sweden on Monday to resolve the longstanding disputes that are at the heart of the trade war between two of the world's largest economies. They also sought to extend the truce for three months.
The focus now shifts towards the U.S. Central Bank's two-day meeting, which begins later today. Expectations are that rates will remain unchanged, but traders will pay attention to comments to gauge when the next Fed rate reduction will occur.
Spot silver remained at $38.18 an ounce while platinum dropped 0.6% to $1382.10, and palladium fell 0.4% to $1,000.
(source: Reuters)