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MORNING BID AMERICAS - September storm
What is important in U.S. markets and global markets today By?Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets As September begins, the world markets are preparing for another storm of government bonds. Following Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, U.S. Treasury rates climbed?across curves, with the benchmark 10-year borrowing rate reaching its highest level since Donald Trump took office in January of last year. Below, I'll explain more. Listen to the Morning Bid Daily Podcast, which discusses the bond rout, and Shein's poor IPO. Subscribe to the podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. SEPTEMBER Storm The rising yield on 10-year bonds will have greater ripple effects in the economy, affecting mortgage rates and other consumer and business loans. Warsh made a speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium, in which he said that the central banks has "work to be done" if the inflation rate doesn't return to its target. He said that he believes the current Fed settings do not limit the economy significantly right now. The Fed will meet again at the end of this month and little is expected to change in the way of inflation. Futures markets are now predicting a two thirds chance that rates will rise. The pressure will be increased by another jump in the world crude oil price this week due to the return of military exchanges?in the Iran War. Bond markets are in a frenzy as the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and other central banks may also raise rates this month. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 3% on Tuesday for the first since 1996, as the revival of dollar following the Warsh speech has weighed heavily on the yen. This is increasing calls for the BOJ rate hike this month to follow the currency market intervention of the summer. The European bond market is also agitated by the tricky budget season in Europe and its upcoming elections. Asian stocks were mixed Tuesday, and U.S. Futures were down before the bell. Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended?1% lower due to a fall in Shein's shares following the retailer's debut on the market. Chart of the Day There are still some big tech names to report earnings this week. Dell and Palo Alto Networks will update on Tuesday. Broadcom, the chip giant, will report tomorrow. Broadcom, with a market capitalization of $1.7 trillion is the seventh-most valuable stock on Wall Street. It's well above so-called Magnificent 7 names Meta and Tesla. Watch today's events * U.S. JOLTS July job openings (10 am EDT), August ISM Manufacturing PMI (10 am EDT) Michael Barr, Feds' Michael Barr speaks The G20 Finance Ministers Meeting in Asheville, North Carolina is on its final day. Want the Morning Bid delivered to your inbox each weekday morning? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. You can find ROI's website and follow us on LinkedIn or X. The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and to independence, integrity, and neutrality.
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Mapping the Market - Death Cross to Golden Cross for Global Oil Prices
The global oil price was teetering on the 'edge' of a bearish signal. However, it swerved?away from that and opened the door for a bullish signal. Click here to view a more detailed chart. Brent crude is the international benchmark for oil. Since the beginning of hostilities in Iran at the end of last month, headlines have been dominated by the conflict. Prices were falling earlier this month as there was hope that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. This decline, on top of a broader retreat since?April's high, has contributed to a decline in the 50 day moving average, which is now close to crossing the 200 day average. Technical analysts refer to this pattern as a "death-cross," usually viewed by them as a sign that the sellers are taking the lead. This cross was never really achieved. Prices rose again as fresh doubts emerged about the ease of Iran tensions. Now the market is flirting?with the opposite signal: the 10-day moving average is positioning itself to possibly rise above the hundred-day average. This is often seen as an indication of further gains, though momentum is already fading. These signals are lagging indicators, as they occur after large moves have been accounted for in the moving averages. However, once triggered, both can spark new buying or selling. If oil prices rise above the $94.83 high for this month, bullish momentum could be re-ignited towards July's peak price of $102 per barrel. If oil prices fall below the $85.41 low from last week, however, it could lead to $78.11 or even July's $70.14 low. The chart below shows: Prices rebounded and prices avoided the 50-day/200 day "death crossing" The 10-day/100 day "golden Cross" is close, but losing momentum Support? at $85.41, $78.11, $69.14
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Oil prices fuel inflation fears, which in turn intensifies the bond selloff and stock drop.
The global bond yields reached new highs as traders prepared for an interest rate increase and renewed fighting in the Middle East boosted oil prices. This put pressure on stock markets all over the world. Investors were also worried about the ever-increasing public debt. The yield on Britain's 10-year bond hit a record high since 2008, above 5.24%. Meanwhile, the German equivalent yield reached a 15-year peak at 3.36%. Ryutaro kimura, senior strategist at BNP?Asset management in Tokyo, said: "I think that there is a sense of resignation - tinged by helplessness - about rising interest rates." The march upward of Japanese borrowing costs has been a reliable anchor on world markets for years. The rise in oil prices, and the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict, are fueling inflation fears, which is bad for bonds. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech last week has led traders to increase their bets that U.S. interest rates will rise this year. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which is used as a benchmark to compare prices of all asset classes, has risen to 4.79%, its highest level since early 2025. "I believe that most of the (bond) sale-off has been a reassessment by Fed policy," said Andrew Lilley. He is the chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank in Sydney. "I believe the Fed will?hike in September and I think that it is?the start of a three-rate cycle at least." Stocks fall as borrowing costs rise The S&P 500 futures contract fell 0.6% as bond yields rose and oil prices increased. The STOXX 600, Europe's continental index, fell by 0.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1% as the disappointing debut of clothing company Shein Global set the tone for a weak market. Shein Global's value is now less than one quarter of what it was pre-listing in 2022, after the shares fell 8%. Aneeka Gupta is a senior analyst at WisdomTree. She said that higher yields may put pressure on tech firms who are heavily borrowing in bond markets to finance AI investments. She said: "The higher the yields, the greater the strain on this sector, one of the biggest growth drivers in equity markets." "I believe that's resulting in the spillover in equity markets that we are seeing today." As renewed conflict in the Middle East dampened prospects for a reopening of Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices drove?global bonds yields higher? on Tuesday. Brent crude rose by 2% to $92.20 while Europe's benchmark gas price increased towards its highest level since early 2023. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has warned that he will continue to strike Iran following a first exchange in fire within a month. In the meantime, increased fighting between Russia and Ukraine is pushing wheat prices to three-year-highs. As bonds and stocks declined, the U.S. Dollar gained on Tuesday. The euro fell 0.2% to 1.16 dollars and the dollar rose 0.1% to 159.9. According to CME’s FedWatch tool on Tuesday, traders were pricing in a 65% probability of a Fed interest rate hike this September. This is up from 40% one week earlier. The money markets also priced in an additional rate hike by the European Central Bank for this month.
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Gulf oil stocks soar as US-Iran conflict intensifies
Gulf stock markets rose in early trade Tuesday on higher oil prices, while United Arab Emirates stocks were subdued as renewed fighting between the United States and Iran dampened investor sentiment. Brent crude traded at $91.94 per barrel as of 0804 GMT, an increase of 1.6%. Qatar's benchmark rose 0.6% with all sectors in positive territory. Qatar Fuel Company gained 4.6% while Qatar National Bank (the region's biggest lender) added?1.1%. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index increased by 0.3%. Healthcare, materials, and energy stocks led the way. Saudi Aramco, the oil giant, gained 0.7% while Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical soared by 4.7%. Saudi Arabia will likely 'raise the official selling price for crude bound for Asia in October, according to a survey. A survey revealed that Middle East spot crude prices rose on the back of tighter supply and strong demand. The benchmark index in Abu Dhabi fell by 0.3% with all sectors falling. First Abu Dhabi Bank, UAE's biggest lender, fell 1.7% while conglomerate, International Holding Company, declined by 0.5%. Dubai's main index remained unchanged, as gains elsewhere were offset by losses in consumer staples, utilities, and communication. Emirates Integrated Telecommunications dropped 3.5% while blue-chip developer 'Emaar Properties' rose 1.3%. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened to strike Iran again on Monday after the first direct exchange of attacks within a month. This heightened tensions in an 'economic standoff' that recently evolved into a conflict. Masoud Peshkian, the President of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, said that Iran would immediately reciprocate, if "the U.S. returned to its commitments under an interim agreement" signed in June.
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Sources say India has revived talks with Zambia about investing in vital minerals
Two sources confirmed that India has resumed discussions with Zambia about investment opportunities in copper, and other minerals of importance, as New Delhi increasingly looks overseas to source raw materials for its growing economy. Two people who were familiar with the talks, who requested anonymity due to the confidentiality of the discussion, said that officials from India's Ministry of Mines had preliminary discussions on August 26 with Zambian officials. One source said that the two parties did not discuss an stalled project which had stopped talks earlier. Reports in April indicated that the talks between India, Zambia and other countries had been stalled due to a lack assurances by Lusaka regarding mining rights for an area measuring 9,000 square kilometers (3 475 square miles), which were awarded to India last year. The Indian Ministry of Mines did not respond to our request for a comment. Zambia's Ministry of Mines spokesperson said that they couldn't confirm anything at this time. Khanij Bidesh India Ltd is India's primary vehicle for securing vital mineral supplies abroad. It is also evaluating opportunities to invest in Australia, Brazil and Canada. India has been in talks with several African countries to acquire critical mineral blocks on a government-to-government basis, while also exploring opportunities in ?Australia and Latin America. A spokesperson for the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries said that Africa, in particular the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zambia, can play a?important part in meeting India's increasing requirements for cobalt and copper. The spokesperson stated that "we?believe Indian firms should be encouraged to pursue brownfield projects and near-production, as well as long-term offtake agreements." India is the second largest buyer of refined metals in the world. Its?copper imports are up sharply since a smelter owned by Vedanta, Sterlite Copper?smelter?closed?in 2018. The government said that India may need to import between 91% and 97% of the copper concentrates it uses by 2047.
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Zinc reaches a four-year high amid supply concerns
London zinc prices rose Tuesday to their highest level in more than four years, supported by concerns about supply and the limited availability of zinc outside China. As of 0300 GMT, the benchmark three-month 'zinc contract on the London Metal Exchange was up by 2.29% at $3,972 per metric ton. The contract had reached $3,990 earlier, its highest level since May 2022. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded zinc contract was up 2.71 percent at 27,070 Yuan ($4,027.97). The price of zinc reached a high of 27,165 yuan per tonne earlier this year, the highest level since January 2026. Zinc prices have been boosted by falling refined zinc stocks outside China and tight raw material supplies. This has helped the metal to post its best monthly performance since January on the LME as well as the SHFE. Metal prices have been supported by a tight supply outside of China, which has pushed metal into overseas warehouses and lowered inventories on those markets. Analysts from Chinese broker Jinrui Futures wrote in a report that domestic (Chinese ) inventories had seen a sharp decline on Monday. Spot purchases were concentrated in deliverable brand names. A shortage of zinc concentrate, a raw material used to make refined metals, has prompted refiners in other countries to accelerate their maintenance schedules. Analysts at Jinrui said that the domestic smelters had increased maintenance plans due to the current raw material shortage. Due to the shortage of zinc concentrate, treatment charges for this material are at a sharply negative level. Refiners are therefore paying miners for their processing. According to broker Marex, bullish speculative positions are at their highest level since the second quarter 2022. Copper added 0.45% among LME metals. Aluminium gained 0.62%. Lead added 0.16%. Nickel dropped 0.12%. Tin?added 0.45%. Copper gained 0.5% among SHFE metals. Aluminium rose 0.63%. Lead lost 0.65%. Nickel added 0.45%. Tin gained 0.93%.
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Chinese rescue efforts in Tibet flood-damaged zone still going strong days after
Rescue teams from China worked through the night and the relentless rain to repair the last kilometre of the only road that leads to the Gyirong Border crossing into Nepal. The road was destroyed by a catastrophic slide last week. The reopening of the China-Nepal Border crossing was a struggle with the elements. Rescuers were working in a narrow mountain canyon squeezed between crumbling mountains and a raging stream. State broadcaster CCTV reported on Tuesday that the rapids have repeatedly swept away efforts to rebuild a road over the last few days. CCTV footage shows excavators standing on shattered road edges, clinging onto a bend at which the highway'simply disappears into the sea. National Highway 216 - the main artery 'running along the Gyirong Tsangpo River?towards the border' - was ravaged by a massive backflow of debris from the direction the border crossing complex. After a collapsed glacier caused mudslides, floods and landslides in Nepal and China, road repairs started on Wednesday. DANGER IS not over Although the lakes that formed in Tibet from the debris washed down by the glacier collapse have gradually drained, the landslide risks and the volatile water body upstream could still cause the rivers to be dammed. Any sudden burst of the dam could also send a new torrent into the rescue area. CCTV reported that the crater created by the?glacier slide on Wednesday -- which is estimated to hold?water equal to 260 Olympic-sized swimming pools -- has shrunk, according to Monday's report. Forecasters predict heavy rains through Wednesday that could exacerbate the problem. CCTV reported that by Tuesday afternoon, 60 rescuers were in the disaster area, searching twice through the wreckage for survivors. The scars left by the mudslide are 60 meters (196.85 ft) high. This is roughly equivalent to the height of 20-storey buildings. China's official death toll has not changed since Sunday, with 16 deaths and 546 people still missing.
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As energy prices rise, inflation fears are stoked.
Investors worried about inflation and a new wave of interest rate increases were prompted by renewed fighting in the Middle East, which boosted oil prices. Japan's benchmark?10-year? has hit 3% for a first time in generations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield, which is used as a benchmark to determine prices in all asset classes, broke resistance at 4.75% and now stands at 4.78%, its highest level since early 2025. The futures market for French and German bonds extended the selling, which drove yields up to 15-year highs. Australia's 10-year bond yield rose at the fastest rate in five months. Ryutaro kimura, senior strategist at BNP asset management in Tokyo, said that there was a growing sense of resignation, mixed with a hint of helplessness, about the rising interest rates in Japan, which have for many years been a reliable anchor on world markets. As the Federal Reserve chair Kevin?Warsh resets expectations on rates, higher oil prices and increasing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are fueling inflation fears, which is bad for bonds. Investors are also beginning to demand higher lending premiums due to the skyrocketing debt of sovereigns. Japan's 10-year loan cost is now at 3%. This is the government's long-term funding cost. So, any increases will put real pressure on sovereign finance, already under strain from Prime Minister Takaichi’s “spend to grow” agenda. U.S. Futures have remained steady and European Futures have dipped, after Wall Street's modest Monday fall. The mood is nervous as we await Friday's U.S. Jobs data, which could lead to an increase in interest rates as early as this month. The markets are pricing a rate increase in New Zealand next Wednesday, and in Europe the following week. The odds of a rate hike in Japan and the U.S. this month are better than even. "I believe that most of the bond sell-off is due to a reassessment in Fed policy," said Andrew Lilley. He's a chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank, based in Sydney. "I believe the Fed will hike in September, and that it is the beginning of a three-rate cycle minimum." SHEIN FADES, BRENT TOPS $91, The Nikkei 225 index of Japan struggled to make any progress and the rate selloff hit equities that are sensitive to housing in Australia such as retailers and banks, due fears of a real estate downturn spreading with every increase in borrowing costs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1% as the debut of clothing company Shein Global set a weak tone. Shein Global shares fell 8%, leaving its market value at less than one-quarter of where it peaked pre-listing in 2022. The conflict in the Middle East has made the energy outlook uncertain. Brent futures have topped $91 per barrel, and Europe's standard gas price ended summer at a 3-1/2 year high with stocks at seasonal record lows. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has warned of further strikes after a 'first exchange of fire within a month.' Meanwhile, increased fighting between Russia and Ukraine is pushing wheat prices to three-year-highs. The rise in borrowing costs is global and has only provided limited support for the U.S. Dollar. The dollar remained at 159.76 yen to the euro, while the euro remained at $1.1619. In Europe, preliminary inflation figures will be released later Tuesday.
Foresters in Serbia plan to make the scorched dunes even hotter.
Foresters in Serbia are facing difficult choices more than a week after fires ravaged the Deliblatska Pescara Reserve. They must decide how to restore its unique dunes, woodlands and forest ecosystems so that they can better withstand 'future wildfires.
The question of what to replace and keep in a region where forest fires were once rare but will become more frequent with global warming is a core issue.
Jovana devetakovic is a lecturer in the Faculty of Forestry at University of Belgrade.
She said, "For the next 15, 20, or even 25 years it won't likely look like a tree -- it will probably look like low shrubland."
She said that damage assessment alone would take a full year.
After that, the?ravaged materials will be removed. This includes half-burned trees or weaker ones. It is a slow process so as to not create new fires or breeding grounds for bark insects which threaten healthy forests.
There are many options for replanting the conifers, including birch, oak, ash, and poplar. The reserve is located about 80 km from Belgrade.
Since more than 200 years, black pines and locusts have dotted the horizon. Replanted trees of these trees were destroyed by past fires, including major fires that occurred in 1996 and 2007.
Alexander Held, senior expert at the European Forest Institute (a group backed by thirty European states), asked: "Do you want Robinia (black locust) and Pinus (black pine) to be in this ecosystem?"
He warned against rushing to replant large areas and suggested a period of observation between three and five years in areas where erosion was not an immediate risk.
According to data from the European Forest Fire Information System, the three worst years for fires in Serbia were 2023-2025.
Experts are drawing comparisons between the current situation and traditionally drier areas.
Theocharis Zagas is Emeritus Professor of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki.
He said that "special methods" must be used, including organic materials in the planting holes as well as materials that capture water and improve soil moisture.
(source: Reuters)