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Oil prices rise as yields increase, oil stocks fall, and US and Iran resume their military strikes
On Monday, bond yields rose and stocks fell as oil prices surged with the return of military clashes in the United States. The resumption of military clashes between the?U.S. and Iran has added to concerns about 'inflation. Donald Trump, the U.S. president was quoted as saying on Monday that he would "hit them hard". This came after Iran fired missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan overnight in response to an attack by the U.S. on Iran's Larak island. U.S. crude climbed 2.54% to $85.51 per barrel. Brent rose to $90.34 a barrel, up by 2.54% for the day. This kept the possibility of future interest rate hikes by major central banks alive. Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chairman's Friday speech in Jackson Hole, boosted betting on an interest rate hike by the Fed for September. Fed funds futures trader now price in 64% odds for a rate hike in September, up from 35% prior to Warsh's comments on Friday. It is expected that the European Central Bank will raise rates at its meeting on September 9-10. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year Treasury note rose 3.8 basis points to 4.764%. This is the highest yield since January 15, 2025. Japan's 2-year Government Bond Yield rose to a?high of 31 years earlier, and German and French 2-year bonds yields also increased. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 356.59 points or?0.67% to 53,203.40. The S&P 500 fell 37.75 points or 0.49% to 7,674.22 while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 103.71 or 0.39% to 26,298.72. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage. He also said that the market was about to enter into September, which is "usually a tough month for stocks." Trading volumes were low as London's markets were closed on a bank holiday. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.6% to 651.1 points. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 5.01 points (0.43%) to 1,148.15. The Fed will decide if it moves next month based on the August U.S. payrolls data and consumer prices due September 11. The economists predict that payrolls will increase by 58,000 following July's shocking decline of 23,000 and unemployment will remain at 4.1%. To reduce the expectation of a rate increase in September, a significantly worse outcome is likely to be required. As traders awaited jobs data, the dollar fell. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies, dropped 0.21% to 99.43. At $1.1614, the euro rose 0.26%. The dollar fell 0.21% against the Japanese yen to 159.71. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that the recent yen movements had been "pretty much contained" and he expects Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda "to do the right thing" in monetary policy. When G20 central banks and finance ministers meet in North Carolina, Monday and Tuesday, inflation and interest rates will likely dominate the discussions. Spot gold dropped 0.45% to $4432.84 per ounce.
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Sony and Warner Music sue Anthropic for songs used in AI training
The music publishing divisions of Sony Music 'and 'Warner Music sued Anthropic at the federal court in California for allegedly using their copyrighted compositions as a basis to train Claude AI models. Sony and Warner stated in their complaint filed on Friday that Anthropic had pirated hundreds song lyrics and sheet songs from The Beatles to Taylor Swift to Michael Jackson to train Claude to respond to human prompts. This lawsuit is part of a series of similar cases filed by copyright holders, including publishers, authors, music labels, and news outlets, against tech companies for using their work in AI training. Universal Music Group filed lawsuits against Anthropic and Anthropic AI in 2023, as well as earlier this year. These cases are still ongoing. Anthropic was the first AI firm to settle a dispute last year, paying $1.5 billion?to resolve a lawsuit brought by a group authors. Sony and Warner stated in their complaint that Anthropic considers this to be a cost of doing business, given that the company's entire business model is built on copyright infringement. "And $1.5 Billion is clearly not enough to deter infringement by a company who has parlayed mass infringement into an astounding 2-trillion dollar valuation," Sony and Warner said in their complaint. Anthropic's spokesperson stated on Monday that this is the third case brought by the same attorneys, recycling accusations from previous cases before the court. The spokesperson stated that the company would defend itself "robustly", and that AI training made fair use of copyrighted material, citing the judge in the case against them. On Monday, neither a spokesperson nor an attorney from Sony Music or Warner Music responded to requests for comment on the case. The complaint claims that Anthropic obtained illegally the publishers' sheet music and lyrics through torrent downloads in order to train Claude. Claude is able to reproduce copyrighted songs "verbatim", when prompted. Sony and Warner said that Claude was taught by Claude to "generate vast amounts of purportedly new' AI generated song lyrics" which compete with Music Publishers legitimate copyrighted work as harmful market alternatives. The labels want damages up to $150,000 per copyright infringed and an order from the court barring Anthropic's use of their works.
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GRT Jewellers, India's largest jeweller, to buy a stake in TBZ for up to $109 Million
Abinaya V. and Praveen Parmasivam BENGALURU - India’s Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri announced a deal on Monday for GRT Jewellers to take a majority stake in the jewellery retailer. The price was set at a maximum of 10.34 billion rupees (108.66 million dollars). GRT Jewellers, subject to regulatory approvals, will purchase a 74.12% share from the 162-year old brand's top shareholders. This acquisition will trigger an open offer of 26% more under India's takeover laws. The stake is worth approximately 15.11 billion?rupees based on TBZ?s?market cap of 20.38 billion rupees. India's jewellers are reducing their expansion plans in response to record gold prices, and increased import tariffs for gold and silver. ?TBZ & GRT both have a strong presence when it comes to gold and 'diamond jewelry, which are integral for weddings - and other auspicious events - in India. India is the second largest gold consumer in the world, and imports meet almost all its demand. Akshay D’Souza, consumer sector consultant told? that "getting control" often requires a discount in order to upgrade stores, improve implementation, or absorb the integration risk. "Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri appears to also have significant debt on its balance sheet, and this will result in lower valuations?especially if the recent revenues are supported with a gold bull run." According to LSEG data, the company's net debt was 7.8 billion rupees in March 2026. GRT 'Jewellers Managing Director GR Aanthapadmanabhan stated that Tribhovandas - which began as a single shop in 1864 - fits into GRT’s strategy to increase its footprint throughout India with its 37 stores. GRT, founded in Chennai in 1964 operates 68 stores in India and one store in Singapore.
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Sources say that the Yaroslavl refinery in Russia has shut down two units of crude distillation after a drone attack.
An oil refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl region, Slavneft-Yaroslavnefteorgsintez, or ?YANOS, suspended oil processing at two ?of its three crude distillation units after a drone ?attack on August ?28, two industry ?sources ?told . The local governor stated on Friday that the facility had been hit by debris from an Ukrainian drone. Sources claim that the attack caused damage to the AVT-3 primary unit of crude distillation with a daily capacity of 17,140 metric tonnes, which is about 40% of the refinery's total capacity. The AVT-4 unit, with a daily capacity of 14,300 tons, represents 33% of the total capacity. The refinery's last operating crude distillation plant has a capacity of 11,430 tonnes per day. This is equivalent to 27% of?the?plant's capacity. YANOS didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Sources could not be identified because they weren't authorised to publicly speak on the subject. The St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange reported that no gasoline was sold by the plant on August 31. Diesel fuel sales also dropped several times. YANOS is owned by Slavneft which is controlled jointly by Rosneft and Gazprom Neft. The refinery, located about 250 km (155 miles), northeast of Moscow, has an oil processing capacity of 300.000 barrels per day or 15,000,000 metric tons annually. According to industry sources, YANOS will process 14.9 million metric tonne of crude oil by 2024. This will result in 2.6 million metric tons of gasoline, 4.0 millions tons of diesel fuel, and 4.7million tons of fuel oil.
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German long yields are at their highest level in 15 years; ECB rate is priced to be near 3% by late 2027
On Monday, German and French government bond yields reached their highest level in more than a decade as the price of oil and natural gas rose. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh also'suggested that rate hikes might be necessary if inflation continues to exceed target. Investors are watching closely the bond supply of both countries, as Germany increases spending on infrastructure and defense and France enters a tough budget battle. Investors are also concerned that geopolitical tensions may fuel more defence spending. The oil prices increased after new fighting broke out between the U.S. The Iranian army claimed that it attacked the Al Minhad Air Base of the United Arab Emirates after an attack by the U.S., but the UAE denied the claims. Investors also pay attention to the crack spread, which is a measure of refinery margins. The ICE heating oils/Brent cracks spread During the war, oil prices were at $36 and then rose to $84.50. Even if oil price drops on a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz, margins will likely remain high while damaged refinery capacities take time to rebuild. Natural Gas Prices at Highest Since March The price of natural gas, which is a major driver for inflation expectations in the eurozone, increased 5%, reaching EUR70.70. This was their highest level since March. Early August, they were around EUR51. Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that EU gas stores are 64.7% filled, which is the lowest level ever for this time of year and 12.4% below last year. The yield on Germany's 10-year bonds rose 5 basis points, to 3.3233%. This is the highest level since May 2011. After Warsh's remarks, the yield curve of U.S. Treasury 2-year bonds flattened and the yields increased. On Monday, they were not much different. Commerzbank's rate strategist,?Rainer?Guntermann, said that Bunds are not immune to the U.S. Treasuries market headwinds but they should still perform well as the markets are prepared for the next European Central Bank interest rate hike. He added that "month-end flows" should provide temporary relief to today. The German 2-year bond rate was up 3 basis points at 2.9237%. This is the highest it has been since July 2024. French short-dated bond yields also reached their highest level since summer 2024, at 3.1202%. Preliminary data shows that the rate of inflation in Germany could rise this month. Traders are pricing in the ECB’s?deposit rates at around 2.70% in December. This implies an 80% probability of a rate hike from the current 2.25%. Investors also expect rates to move closer to 3% in late 2027. The deposit rate is priced at 2.98% for September 2027. Mark Haefele is the chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management. "Although there is a greater risk of a hike in September, the most recent sequential?inflation figures are consistent with a further deflation," said Mr. He. FRENCH BORROWING? COSTS AT THE HIGHEST FOR ALMOST 18 years The 10-year yield on French bonds rose by 4.5 basis points to 4.1729%. This is the highest level since November 2008. The 30-year bond yield reached 4.9408% - its highest level since September 2008. The yields on Italian 10-year notes and 30-year bills reached their highest levels since June 2024 and December 2023, at 4.11640% et 4.9355%.
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German unions warn that massive opposition is expected in the Volkswagen turnaround dispute
IG Metall - Germany's largest union - warned on Monday that it would resist any attempts by Volkswagen to undo a restructuring package previously agreed. However, the union did not threaten strikes in advance of a critical board meeting scheduled for the end of this week. Since July, Volkswagen's management has been at odds with its unions over what could be the biggest overhaul of the automaker to date. This includes?plant closings, the carving-out and 50,000 more layoffs. It would be less than two-years after the most recent package, which was reached following months of intense talks and warning strikes, as Europe's largest carmaker tried to?address tariffs, Asian competitors, and a weak Chinese marketplace. Thorsten Groeger, a manager at one of the sites facing closure, told workers in Hanover that if the board tried to question the agreement 'again', the factory floors would be up in arms. "We will fight it with all of our strength." Volkswagen's supervisory council will meet Friday to vote on three competing restructuring proposals. This could lead to a full-blown escalation, which may result in a special shareholder meeting. Arno Antlitz said that the group will do "everything it can to protect jobs as effectively as we possibly can" and warned there is no viable production plan for factories in Hanover Emden Neckarsulm Zwickau. Antlitz stated that if the excess capacity was not reduced and production continued at these sites as before, it would result in a cost disadvantage permanent of approximately EUR1.5 billion ($1.74billion) per year. Volkswagen is one of Germany's largest private employers. The crisis has prompted regional state heads to speak out, worried that plant closures could hurt their position, as the far right AfD continues to climb in the polls. Michael Kretschmer is the leader of Saxony where Volkswagen's Zwickau factory is located. He said that the workers, management, and 'political leaders' must all work together in order to minimize the impact of job cuts and capacity reductions. Kretschmer said, "We need to all work together." He said, "Manufacturing in Germany must become easier, cheaper, and better."
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California utility shares fall as wildfire bill fails in its attempt to reduce liability risks
California's electric utilities' shares fell'sharply' on Monday, after a Senate Bill amendment failed to do much to'reduce' their exposure to wildfire liabilities or address the 'long-term''solvency' of the state's Wildfire Fund. Sempra shares fell 3.4%, while PG&E's and Edison International's fell 19.7%, 21.3% and respectively. BMO Capital Markets lowered PG&E from "outperform" to "market perform". Mizuho Securities also downgraded the utilities. The amended Senate Bill creates fast-pay programs?for survivors of wildfires, expands efforts to prevent and prepare for wildfires and changes the rules that govern the Wildfire Fund's Continuation account. According to analysts at?Mizuho, the legislation does not provide a mechanism for replenishing the wildfire funds. It also does not separate the liability of utilities from the solvency and viability of the fund. The fund is partially funded by utilities. California utilities are facing increasing wildfire liabilities. PG&E is expected to emerge from bankruptcy in 2020, after its equipment has been linked to several deadly blazes. The state has created a Wildfire Fund of $21 billion to cover future claims. Meanwhile, utilities are pushing for reforms that will reduce their exposure to costs associated with wildfires. BMO Capital Markets stated that the bill would not guarantee the fund's solvency in the long term or protect utilities against wildfire-driven bankruptcy. The new $21 price goal for PG&E is based on the assumption that wildfire liabilities will not be capped after 2030. The bill permits the administrator of the Continuation Account, to issue bonds in support of?the account? and?related costs. Mizuho stated that the provision would not add new money to the fund, but rather extend its existence. The law also protects the ability of insurers to recover payments related to wildfires from?utilities, and prohibits private equity groups from purchasing wildfire claims or financing wildfire advertising. California Governor Gavin Newsom released a statement saying, "We have reached a compromise which?blocks hedge fund profiteering from wildfire survivors, bars utility executives taking bonuses when their company starts a fire and puts money in the hands of survivors faster."
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California utility stocks fall as amended wildfire law preserves insurer claims
Utilities shares fell in premarket trade on Monday after an amendment to the Senate bill in California failed to significantly alter the liability exposure of grid operators in the state. Sempra shares fell 3.5%, while PG&E shares fell 15.7%, Edison International fell 10.4% and PG&E fell 15.7%. Wildfires have made the state 'particularly vulnerable in the past couple of years. Some lawmakers wanted to introduce broader cost sharing reforms to prevent pressure on the Wildfire Fund. California lawmakers, however, settled on allowing issuance of bonds to increase financing and didn't make any changes to the insurers right to recover from utilities. In a statement, California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that "we reached a compromis which blocks hedge funds profiteering from wildfire survivors and bars utility executives taking?bonuses? when their company starts a fire. This compromise will get money to survivors faster." Brokerage?BMO lowered?PG&E's rating to "market perform" from "outperform" after the amendment. Mizuho lowered?Edison's rating to "neutral" from "outperform." The brokerage analysts said that the proposed legislation "does not ensure the long-term solvency of the wildfire fund (and the associated liability cap)," which exposes investors to an open-ended 'wildfire-related tail-risk.
Park service reports two deaths in Grand Canyon following flash flood
The National Park Service reported that one body was recovered after flash flooding occurred in Grand Canyon National Park on the weekend, and that recovery operations for a second were under way Monday.
According to the National Park Service, heavy?rainfall on Saturday caused the canyon to flood, damaging trails and footbridges. It also damaged infrastructure that transports water throughout the park. 62 hikers were forced to be evacuated via helicopter by Sunday morning.
Park officials reported that a body of 46-year old?man was?found? on Sunday. The NPS posted on X that "more than twenty individuals" may be missing or unaccounted and asked the public for information about hikers in the path of raging 'waters.
The NPS did not provide any additional details on the second victim or an updated count of those missing in response to the questions asked by the media on Monday.
The South Rim of the park was open for the day Monday, but the overnight accommodations and concessions were closed. Additional thunderstorms are expected to arrive early in the week.
On Monday, several hiking and lodging areas affected by floods were still?completely closed. The NPS has asked visitors to stay away from closed areas as search and recovery operations continue.
(source: Reuters)