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Microsoft rally boosts stocks; 30-year Treasury yield reaches 19-year high
U.S. stock prices rose on Thursday, as Microsoft's results surpassed expectations, and eased investor concerns about AI spending. Meanwhile, 30-year Treasury yields reached a record high after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at the same level on Wednesday, fueling fears about inflation in longer-term. Microsoft rose by 14% as the company beat Wall Street expectations for current-quarter cloud sales growth and issued a capital expenditure outlook that was below Wall Street expectations. It also said it expected to continue generating cash until fiscal 2027, which just began. Investors are concerned about the rising costs of AI at large technology companies, even though they have reported strong earnings. Alphabet's and Tesla's negative cash-flow reports last week led to a sell-off in AI stocks. Chip stocks were also affected by investors questioning high valuations. Sanjiv Tumkur is the head of equity analysis at Rathbones. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.68%, to 51,945.26,?the S&P 500 was up by 1.29% at 7,410.61 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.43% to 25,037.38. MSCI All Country World Price Index.MIWD00000PUS rose 1.30% to 1,105.11 after falling earlier to its lowest level since June 11. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 1.23%, ending its third consecutive day of losses. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.88% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 Index rose by 0.89%. The highest 30-Year Yields since 2007 The Fed's decision not to raise interest rates sparked fears that inflation, which is already well above the Fed target, could rise further. The decision to leave policy on hold drew dissents from three of the 12 ?FOMC members, who had wanted a quarter-percentage-point hike instead. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s preference for less guidance in the future has left traders less confident about the Fed’s next move. Warsh pointed out that bond yields have risen significantly since the Fed’s last policy meeting. This is because investors are pricing in future rate hikes. He welcomed the move but added that it didn't mean that the central bank had to follow suit. Oscar Munoz is the head of US Economics at TD Securities. "He is pointing out that the market does the job of the Fed. But at some point, there must be some follow-through." The recent rise in oil prices has pushed yields up ahead of the Fed's meeting as the war against Iran resumed. Fed funds futures traders now price in 64% odds of a Fed hike during the September meeting. The yield on the interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury US2YT=RR fell by 1.28 basis points, to 4.223%. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year notes US10YT=RR increased by 4.51 basis to 4.667%. The 30-year yields rose 6.94 basis points to 5.2124% before reaching 5.2444%. This is the highest since mid-2007. Data released on Thursday revealed that U.S. Inflation slowed down in June. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose 3.7% over the past 12 months, after a 4.1% increase in May, which was not revised. This is the biggest gain since April 2023. Separately the U.S. economy slowed down in the second quarter due to an expanding trade deficit. However, a surge in consumer spending as well as robust investment in AI infrastructure showed underlying strength. Investors were weighing the talks between Oman, Iran and Washington over the Strait of Hormuz as they weighed oil prices on Thursday. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.77%, while the euro rose 0.5%, at $1.1521. The pound rose 0.49%, to $1.3432. The Bank of England held interest rates at?on-hold as expected. However, a third policymaker supported a rate hike citing renewed conflict between Iran and the United States. The Japanese yen has gained sharply, sparking speculation about possible Japanese intervention to support the currency. Last seen at 159.16 dollars per yen, it was up 2.59%. Bank of Japan will likely keep its rates at 1% this Friday. A second rate hike after the June increase would be rare. Spot gold increased by 0.93%, to $4.102.91 per ounce.
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Tata Steel India beats its profit forecast on the back of improved steel prices
Tata Steel reported better-than expected first-quarter profits on Thursday. The company, India's largest?steelmaker, grew its net profit by 11.6% from a year earlier, despite higher costs for?coking coke. The Tata Group's company reported a net profit of 23.18 billion rupees (about $242.3 million) for the quarter ending June 30. This was an increase of 11.6% compared to a year ago. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, analysts had on average expected a net income of 22.95 bn rupees. Elara Capital analysts said that prices of domestic flat steel products such as cold-rolled and hot-rolled coils rose both sequentially and year-over-year due to a weaker rupee. Tata Steel's production of domestic crude steel increased by over 10% compared to a year ago, to 5.76 millions tonnes. This was largely due to higher output from its Kalinganagar and Jamshedpur facilities. Deliveries also rose by nearly 9%, to 5.17 million tonnes. The company's total revenue for the first quarter of operations increased 14.3% compared to a year ago, reaching 607.94 billion rupies. This was higher than analysts' expectations (586.65 billion rupies). Nevertheless, lower production outside India, and higher raw material costs such as iron ore and coal, have eroded some of the gains. The cost of coking coal, a major input for steelmakers, remained high. This pushed material costs up by 12%. Total expenses during the quarter increased 13.1% compared to a year ago, reaching 569.40 billion rupees. In the Netherlands, Tata Steel's quarterly production volume dropped by 8.8% compared to a year ago, while Thailand production was flat. Delivery volumes in the Netherlands and UK dropped 6.7%, 20%, and 3% respectively. The company also approved a 4.8 million-tonnes-per-annum steelmaking capacity expansion at subsidiary Neelachal ?Ispat Nigam -- at an estimated capex ?of 338.73 billion rupees -- to expand ?its long products portfolio. JSW Steel announced a better-than-expected quarterly profit in July due to higher steel prices and stable volumes.
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Fuel prices in Europe are near record levels due to refinery attacks
This week, European refiners made bumper profits for producing fuels like gasoline and diesel. A wave of?attacks against oil refineries in Russia and the Middle East further tightened supplies and raised prices worldwide. Fuel prices are rising, which is affecting consumers and businesses around the world. Fuel prices continue to rise despite crude oil falling to $90 per barrel, well below the record $147 set in 2008. This is because attacks on refineries caused by wars in Iran and Ukraine has destroyed a number of major plants which make fuels from crude. The premium that European low-sulphur gasoline futures command on crude oil prices, which effectively captures refiners' profit margin from?processing oil into diesel The price of crude oil rose to a record high of $74,66 per barrel on Thursday. The Middle East and Russia both export a lot of diesel fuel, which is used in agriculture, industry and transportation. Refinery profits for diesel production jumped earlier in July to all-time highs and have continued to rise as long as the attacks continue. Jeffrey Baird said that the market signals that refinery capacity is as important a problem now as crude oil scarcity - if not more so. Saudi Arabia closed its Jizan oil refining facility, which produces 400,000 barrels per day, on July 27, following an attack from Yemen's Houthis. According to Kpler's data, the refinery has exported over 200,000 bpd in the last three months, mainly diesel and gasoil. Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery (another major diesel producer) has also been forced to shut down parts of its 615,000-bpd capacity due to an electrical outage. Ukraine's drone strikes have also continued to?hit Russian refinery capacity, forcing the Kremlin impose a gasoline and diesel export prohibition. Lukoil Perm refinery, with a capacity of 260,000 bpd was the latest to shut down a crude distillation unit on Thursday after a drone strike. In recent weeks, gasoline?refining profits have also reached multi-year highs. The premium of Eurobob gasoline to Brent futures on Wednesday was $42.21 per barrel, not far from the 4-year high of $44.94 that was reached on July 17. According to LSEG, the margins for European jet?fuel refineries remained over $80 per barrel at 29 July. However, they were still down from their previous high of nearly $109 per barrel in March. Data shows that the margin never exceeded $80 before 2026.
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The popular Swiss border lake that attracts tourists is almost completely drained by the drought
Lake 'Brenets', a large, winding, long lake on the Swiss-French frontier, has been drained and rendered unnavigable since more than a fortnight amid a severe drought that has affected waterways throughout Europe. In the summer months, thousands of tourists are transported across the lake by three boat companies. This year, however, it is almost deserted, as the water levels of the River Doubs that feeds the lake have dropped sharply after months of little rain and three consecutive heatwaves. The latest is still underway. Dozens of 'boats have been stranded on cracked mud. "Jumbo", a vessel used as a tourist boat, is operated by Yvan durig, the owner of?Societe des Navigations Brenets. He said, "It is hitting us hard as we are powerless to stop it." He has already had to lay off some of his team, and is worried about losing money for the entire year. The water level in the lake is now 9 metres (30 feet), below average, and it's falling at a rate of 22 centimetres (nine inches) per day. MeteoSuisse, a Swiss weather agency, says that with rainfall levels about half the normal since April, this year's dry spell is comparable to the worst droughts in 1976, 2003, and 2018. The MeteoSuisse weather agency says that this year's drought is comparable to some of the worst in 1976, 2003 and 2018. Durig stated that the frequency of droughts has increased. He said, "These droughts occur in rapid succession. This is something we have never seen before." The remaining water in the lake is now a?brownish color and has been reduced to a thin ribbon. Fish are confined there and two swans can be seen paddling. Residents say that a nearby waterfall, the Saut de Doubs, which flows out of this lake, is almost dry. It's beautiful when the water is flowing. Martial Beyeler (69) said that the place is idyllic and wonderful. It makes me sad seeing the place as it is. (Reporting and writing by Denis Balibouse and Cecile Mantovani; Additional reporting and writing by Emma Farge, Alex Richardson).
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Aperam CEO: Diversification has decreased dependence on Europe
Aperam, a Luxembourg-based steelmaker, no longer depends on Europe to earn most of its earnings, but it still stands to benefit from the region's resurgence in?steel?, said Sud Sivaji, chief executive of Aperam. "We did not stand still when Europe suffered. "We diversified and transformed ourselves into this high-value material company," Sivaji explained, referring, among other things, to the group’s?Brazilian and North American distribution businesses. He said that until 2020-2021, Europe would account for around 60%-70% Aperam's EBITDA. Sivaji stated, "If you take Europe out, we would still make 60-70% of EBITDA." Aperam?expects that despite this shift, it will benefit from improved conditions in Europe where?tighter restrictions on imports?and the gradual rolling out of the EU's border carbon levy has helped to lift stainless steel prices. Sivaji anticipates that stainless steel imports will fall from the current 22%-23% to 17%-18%, creating opportunities for European stainless steel producers to gain market share. Aperam announced a?adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of EUR130 millions on Thursday. This was slightly higher than analysts' expectations, which were EUR127.3 in a LSEG poll. The company's shares fell despite the fact that it forecasted lower earnings for the third quarter due to the seasonal slowdown. Sivaji stated that "the market in Europe doesn't accept seasonality." "I am confident that this should be fine if they realize it is seasonality during the day or over the next few days." By 1327 GMT, shares, which had fallen as much as 9.1% in the early trading session, were down only 1%.
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US inflation slows down in June but is likely to reverse amid Middle East conflict
The U.S. Inflation rate slowed down in June but it is only temporary as renewed hostilities are raising oil prices. The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased by 3.7% over the past 12 months, after advancing an unrevised 4.1% during May. This was the largest gain since April 2023. PCE inflation increased in line with expectations. The PCE Price Index fell 0.1% month-over-month, its lowest reading since April 2020. It had risen 0.5% in May. These data were also included in the government’s second-quarter?estimate gross domestic product. This was published by the government on Thursday. The decline in PCE inflation was due to a "retreat" in oil prices, which coincided with a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Since then, the truce has broken down. Brent oil is hovering at just over $90 per barrel while U.S. average gasoline prices have returned to above $4 a gallon. PCE Price Index excluding volatile energy and food components rose 3.3% year-over-year in June, after rising 3.4% in May. It increased 0.1% in June, excluding food and energy. In May it had risen 0.3%. For its 2% inflation target, the Federal Reserve uses PCE measures. On Wednesday, the U.S. Central Bank left its overnight benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three members of the Fed's policy-setting committee dissented in favor of a quarter-percentage-point hike. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said to reporters that the central bank will not "waver" from its commitment to bring inflation back to target. He stressed "there is nothing soft about inflation, and there is nothing soft about implicit inflation,?not under this committee's supervision." Economists predict that the Fed will raise borrowing rates?as early as September. The impact of high inflation was softened this year by generous tax refunds, but now that cushion is diminishing, setting consumer spending up for a slowdown in the second half. Consumer spending, which makes up more than two thirds of economic activity, grew 0.3% in June, after a 0.9% increase in May. Consumer spending in June increased by 0.4% when adjusted for inflation. This is the same as in May. Personal income rose 0.2% in June after soaring by 0.7% in May. After inflation, the income available to households grew by 0.3% in May. Savings rate dropped to 2.7% from 2.8%, its lowest level since 2022. Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, and Paul Simao edited the report.
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Stocks rise on tech support and US 30-year yield near 2007 peak
Microsoft's?earnings quelled AI concerns, and U.S. inflation data for June met expectations. The borrowing cost has risen to its highest level since 2007. Commerce Department data showed that the Personal Consumption Spending Price Index fell by 0.1% in June. This was compared to a 0.1% drop expected by economists surveyed by. The annual rate was 3.7% in line with the 3.7% expected by economists. Futures for the Nasdaq 100, a tech-heavy index, rose by 1.51%. The Dow and S&P 500 futures also gained 0.60 and 0.35 percent, respectively. Investors are frightened by the steep drops in shares of some of the biggest AI winners. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 1.23%, ending its third consecutive day in the red. Microsoft's and Meta's earnings confirmed that investors are looking for signs of AI payoff. Sanjiv Tumkur is the head of equity research at Rathbones. Microsoft shares rose by 9.02% before the market opened after the tech giant said that it expected to continue generating cash until fiscal 2027. Meta shares fell 10.2% after earnings that showed the strain caused by its expensive AI bets. Jefferies analysts stated that Microsoft has "hit the jet stream" while Meta is still constructing the runway. Bonds continued to be under pressure. Bonds remained under pressure. Warsh's decision to refrain from providing 'forward guidance' made it even more difficult for traders to determine the Fed's next moves. Oscar Munoz is the head of US Economics at TD Securities. He said: "The aversion of?Warsh in providing forward guidance hurts a little credibility here." "He is pointing out that the'market does the job of the Fed. But at some point, there has to be some follow through." The benchmark STOXX 600 index in Europe rose by 0.65% while the FTSE 100 in Britain was close to a new record high. The Bank of England left?interest rates at the same level on Thursday. After two sessions of losses, the MSCI All Country World Price Index grew by 0.25%. Separate data showed that the U.S. economy slowed down in the second quarter due to a growing trade deficit. However, its underlying strength remained strong.
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Sizewell Nuclear Sites are not threatened by wildfires in eastern England
Fire officials and operators said on Thursday that a wildfire in Eastern England, which was one of the largest the region had ever seen, would not affect nearby nuclear facilities, and it was unlikely to spread toward them. Sizewell C is a new nuclear reactor under construction. The Sizewell B facility, owned by French utility EDF, generates electricity. Wildfires were raging a few miles to the north of these sites. Suffolk Fire and Rescue Service has increased its response to the Dunwich Heath fire on England's East Coast. They have described it as one of the biggest incidents in county history. Authorities have said that the fire is not a threat to nuclear sites, and they do not expect the wind to change to move it towards them. The chief fire officer of the local fire service, Jon Lacey, told reporters that the terrain and land between the fire and Sizewell B or C meant that there was no'significant' fire spreading concern. He added that both sites were being monitored, and authorities were consulting with their operators. Sizewell C stated that the fire was a low-risk project due to its distance and the intervening watercourses. EDF, however, said the blaze did not affect operations at Sizewell C, which is?separated from the 'fire by a body?of?water. Angela Rayner, the housing minister, said that the government is also watching the situation and stands ready to provide support. (Reporting and editing by James Davey; Sam Tabahriti)
Wildfires threaten Bordeaux's wine industry
Wildfires burning in the countryside of Bordeaux are a reminder of climate challenges that France's largest wine region is facing. Producers are struggling with?severe heat, rising temperatures, and a decline in wine consumption. Although growers claim that the fires do not pose an immediate threat to Bordeaux’s famous vineyards, two months of severe drought and repeated heatwaves has intensified stress and led to one of the earliest vintages in history.
Thomas Duroux said that the fires in Margaux did not affect the quality of the wine.
He said that warning signs were everywhere. The scorching summer in France has exacerbated drought conditions, stretched water supplies, and dried out vegetation, causing wildfires to spread and endangering crops throughout the country.
Wake-up Call
The first ones to be affected were young vines whose roots had not yet reached deep enough to find moisture underground.
"What we're experiencing this year should be a wake-up. We're facing a situation we've never seen before. "We must not only limit the damage but also consider the future," said?Duroux.
He added, "Our priority today is water resources -?because we won't be able plant vines under these conditions -- and adapting the vineyard to become more resilient to these climate conditions."
Some local wine authorities sought exemptions to allow irrigation this year of vines in production, a rare step for a region that has traditionally only watered young and fragile grapes. Duroux says that many chateaux don't have enough water for their entire vineyard.
He said that climate change has brought benefits to date, such as riper grapes and richer wines, and in hot years like 2020, 2022, and 2025, exceptional qualities.
Growers warned that without rain, vines may shut down in order to protect themselves. Grapes will shrivel if there is no rain.
This would threaten both yields and quality, pushing harvest dates to the earliest ever recorded.
Climate change isn't the only industry challenge.
Depressed prices have plagued many French producers for years due to?falling consumption, weaker demand from exports and an oversupply. Some are forced to sell their wine at a loss.
The crisis led to a "vine-pull" scheme, where producers are paid for uprooting vineyards in order to reduce production and rebalance markets.
Even the most prestigious wines are not immune to this downturn.
According to the Liv-ex Bordeaux 500 Index, the Bordeaux fine wine market has lost nearly a fifth in value over 'the last five years.
The once booming en premierur market in the region, where buyers buy wines as they age in barrels, has also lost its momentum. This led several chateaux, to reduce prices. (Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide. Gabriel Stargardter contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (Editor)
(source: Reuters)