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What are the benefits of early and abundant monsoon rainfall in India?

India's Weather Office has predicted an above-average Monsoon Season for the second consecutive year in 2025. The annual rains will arrive at their earliest date in 16 years.

Rains that began on the coast of Kerala, the southernmost state, eight days before the usual schedule, have now reached nearly half of the country.

Why is the monsoon important?

Monsoons bring about 70% of annual rains to a $4 trillion economy. Agriculture, which employs more than half the population of 1.4 billion people, provides about 16% of that.

Rains are important for crops like rice, wheat and sugarcane. They also affect the economy as a whole, boosting growth and limiting inflation of food prices.

Export restrictions on sugar could be eased if harvests are higher, as well as those for staples like rice and onions. In the event of a drought, food imports are required and export restrictions.

Farmers who earn more money from bigger crops are more likely to buy appliances and jewelery during the festival and wedding seasons, which boosts consumption.

WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION, CENTRAL BANK POLITICS AND INFLATION?

The central bank closely monitors the consumer price index in India, which makes up almost half of its total. In 2024, rains above average helped to keep food prices down. This allowed the Reserve Bank of India to lower lending rates.

The RBI will be comforted by the forecast for above-average rains this year. It is likely to reduce interest rates in June, at its third consecutive meeting, and again in August to accelerate growth.

What is the immediate impact of early arrival?

Early monsoons helped to cool down temperatures in many parts of the country nearing the end of summer when electricity utilities are struggling to meet demand for air conditioning and irrigation of crops.

Electricity prices briefly dropped to zero due to the sharp fall in temperatures.

The sales of cold drinks, ice creams and other frozen treats have also begun to decline nearly three weeks sooner than expected. Rain is refilling reservoirs throughout southern and western India. This has eased supply concerns during a period when water usually runs out.

Which Crops Will Benefit?

Farmers will sow crops like paddy, cotton and soybeans earlier than usual, as the monsoon arrives in some areas nearly two weeks before normal. Rice, sugarcane and cotton will all benefit from the above-average rainfall.

The yield of crops depends not only on rainfall volume, but also the distribution over the four-month period. Over-rainfall or extended dry spells can reduce yields. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Rajendra Jadhav)

(source: Reuters)