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REFILE-Biggest takeaways on United States corn, soy crops after annual crop tour -Braun.

Tape-record yields are currently forecasted for U.S. corn and soybean crops, but some of the price quotes, especially for soybeans, are becoming rather lofty.

Last week's Pro Farmer Crop Tour validated massive pod populations in the soybean fields, though overall corn yields were not the very best ever measured.

The yearly trip sampled more than 1,600 corn and 1,600 soybean fields this year across 7 significant U.S. making states, accounting for 70% of corn production and 63% of soybeans.

Scouts count the number of soybean pods in a. three-by-three-foot plot and estimate a rough corn yield in each. field.

Remarkably, the trip's general average corn yield was not. much better than in 2021 when all samples are weighted and combined,. and this is true whether weighting by gathered location, average. production levels or number of trip samples.

However typical soybean pod counts were up between 4% and 11%. over the last 4 trips after applying weightings.

The 2024 tour corn yield falling short of 2021 may not rule. out a record result. August 2021 included the hottest average. Midwestern temperatures for the month considering that 2010, though this. August could be the coolest in several years. Lower August. temperatures can assist corn kernels grow fatter, increasing. yields.

Each year post-tour, Pro Farmer concerns production projections. which incorporate trip data and other factors such as weather condition.

Pro Farmer on Friday positioned U.S. corn yield at 181.1 bushels. per acre, below the U.S. Department of Farming's 183.1 bpa. and above last year's record 177.3.

The advisory firm pegged soybean yield at 54.9 bpa, above. USDA's 53.2, in 2015's 50.6, and 2016's record of 51.9 bpa.

The tour results would appear to confirm Pro Farmer's giant. soy yield, however the projection might not. Last week was dry across. the Corn Belt and that pattern may continue another week or two,. potentially limiting seed size.

CRUCIAL OBSERVATIONS

Trip findings supported the substantial crop story in the. I-states, where USDA projects record corn yields and record soy. yields for Illinois and Indiana, but not Iowa. The most significant. inconsistencies were in Minnesota and Ohio.

Minnesota corn yields were the trip's worst since 2012, down. 9% from last year, though USDA sees yield the same on the year. Almost every single corn field in southwestern and south-central. Minnesota revealed visible injuries from extreme June moisture.

Trip outcomes also clashed with USDA in Ohio, where average. corn yield samples were somewhat off from in 2015's tour. despite USDA pegging yield down 5%.

The trip samples the highest-producing portions of each. state however not the whole state, and the non-tour portion of Ohio. is having a hard time. Some 12.5% of the state is in extreme D3 drought. per the U.S. Dry Spell Screen, a weekly record in information back to. 2000.

In Minnesota, the trip results suggest the upper two-thirds. of the state, where yields are typically lower, must have. earth-shattering results to accomplish a state corn yield anywhere. near in 2015.

The trip soybean results were less controversial versus. USDA, though pod counts in Ohio were down 2% on the year while. USDA sees the state's soy yield increasing 2% to a new high. Pod. counts were up just 1% on the year in Nebraska, though USDA has. yield rebounding 15%.

Scouts found soil wetness in the western states at the very best. levels in a few years, which could help the soybeans better. cling to yield prospective amid the dry summertime surface.

PRO FARMER VERSUS USDA

Pro Farmer approximating a lower U.S. corn yield than USDA is. barely a surprise as the advisory firm has done so in all but. four of the last 20 Augusts (not 2007, 2009, 2014, 2021).

That is statistically the more secure bet given that last U.S. corn. yield has been lower than USDA's August projection in 12 of the. last 19 years, though record yielding years are often the ones. to buck this pattern.

Soybeans offer an extremely interesting situation. The last 5. times Pro Farmer's August soy yield amounted to or above USDA's. ( 2021, 2018, 2016, 2014, 2011), final yield ended at or above. whatever USDA had actually said in August.

Furthermore, USDA's September yields was available in greater versus. August in each of those 5 years.

The federal government still has a minor edge on Pro Farmer. USDA's. August corn and soybean yields were closer than Pro Farmer to. the finals in 6 of the last 10 years, but not always the. very same years for each crop. Karen Braun is a market expert . Views expressed. above are her own.

(source: Reuters)