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Stocks edge higher as oil prices rise amid US-Iran tension
On Tuesday, oil prices were?just below $90 per barrel as the United States and Iran reached an impasse in their negotiations over a peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile,?uncertainty about the global inflation outlook dampened a rise of the?stocks. U.S. President Donald Trump responded on Monday with his own conditions to Tehran's demands for a deal. He called for Iran to compensate those who died in wars and attacks, as well as protests. This could complicate efforts to reopen this crucial waterway. Brent crude futures rose 5% over the past two days and last traded at $88 per barrel. This was their highest price since July 31, and almost 25% higher than early July's four-month-low. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that the war will be fought on attrition. "You can probably see the (oil market) sitting around the $75-$95 range while we wait to find out who blinks first." Money markets indicate that there is a 50% chance of an increase at the Federal Reserve meeting in September. Jonas Goltermann is the chief markets economist for Capital Economics. He said: "We believe that risks are skewed in favor of a hot print. This would likely drive a rebound?in rate expectations, and potentially, renewed concerns about stagflation." U.S. Treasuries stabilized. The 2-year Treasury yields fell by 1 basis point to 4.23%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yields remained essentially flat at 4.7%. Investors' risk appetite is further impacted by a new push up in 30-year bond rates towards the 19-year highs of above 5.28% that were reached in July. The latest news, which has seen yields and commodities prices move higher, has changed the mood to a more hawkish one. The STOXX 600 index in Europe pared its earlier losses and gained 0.1% for the day. MSCI's All-World Index was unchanged. Nasdaq's futures rose by 0.4% while those for the S&P500 rose by 0.2%. The benchmark indexes declined?on Sunday. Overnight, Nvidia announced that it had teamed with six major financial institutions, including BlackRock and Apollo, to create funding measures for AI infrastructure worth more than 500 billion dollars. The plan did not reveal any more details, including financial terms, commitments to invest or how $500 billion could fit in with existing funding arrangements. Sycamore said, "A small piece of me wondered if this was how it felt when the first sub-prime loans became mainstream products - the innovation which ultimately helped trigger the GFC." Another selloff of Nvidia bonds highlighted some investor concerns. The Tradegate platform last showed its 2% bond maturing in 2031 at 4.86%, an increase of 4 basis points from Monday. Intel, on the other hand, raised $20 billion via a share offering, which was the first time since 1971 that it had offered its stock. Intel shares dropped around 1% during premarket trading. The yen, among currencies, was once again in the spotlight as it fell below 159 and was well off its high of last week of 155.20. This was after several suspected rounds of interventions, including one by Japan and the United States. The holiday in Japan led to a thinner trading volume than usual. This is often viewed as a catalyst for possible intervention as small trades have a greater impact on prices than normal. Gold, which is up 8% this month so far, was also 0.1% higher than the previous day, at $4,394 per ounce. (Rae Wee contributed additional reporting from Singapore; Clarence Fernandez edited the story with Kate Mayberry, Toby Chopra and Toby Chopra.)
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Austrians rush to slaughterhouse as hot weather in Europe stunts Austrian crops
Farmers say that the scorching European summer of this year is affecting agriculture, even in Austria. The heat has'stunted' crop growth, and cows have been dragged from parched Alpine pastures to be slaughtered early. Johann Fessl is a dairy farmer from northern Austria who raises his cattle on Alpine pastures at 1,300 meters (4,300 feet). Heat and lack of rainfall have caused a shortage of grass and water for cattle. This will force farmers to move cows to barns earlier to eat hay that was intended for winter last year. Some farmers send their cattle to slaughter earlier to reduce costs. Fessl is the head of an association of pasture-based cattle producers in Upper Austria. He explained that the situation differs on every hill and mountain. He said that some farmers are discussing emergency slaughters this year. "The list of people waiting to be slaughtered is long." GRAIN HARVEST IS EXPECTED BY 19% TO SHRINK THIS YEAR. Crops are also affected. AgrarMarkt Austria - a national organization that oversees food production - said in a statement this month that it expects grain harvest to be 19% smaller. Corn, which needs even more water, also suffers. Roland Radner, a farmer in Germany, cut down his corn very early because the yield was so poor. The remaining stems are yellowed and not the usual green. The heat has halted the development of many of Barbara Stemberger's 30 varieties of tomatoes in the greenhouses near Linz. Due to the extreme heat in the last few weeks, many tomatoes have blossom-end rot. The tomatoes can still be eaten if the rotten bits are removed, but they cannot be sold as-is. There is at least a silver lining for them. Stemberger stated that "the carrots are flourishing exceptionally this year due to the heat." (Writing and editing by Francois Murphy)
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Russell: The surge in China's imports of coal may be starting to slow down.
China's coal exports increased to the highest level this year in July, but that strength is based on short-term factors and unlikely to last. According to data released by the government last week, total coal imports in July were up 23% from last year's same month to 43.73 millions metric tons. It was up from 42.78 millions tons in June, and nearly a third higher than the low of 33.1million tons for April this year. After 82 miners were killed in an accident at a mine located in Shanxi Province on May 22, China began imposing safety inspections in mines. China's largest coal producer has historically seen its output fall due to safety inspections. To make up any shortfall, China imports coal to cover the shortage. In June, domestic coal production dropped 9.7% from the same period a year ago to 380.88 millions tons. According to official data, the average daily output was 12.7 million tonnes, the lowest level since July 2025. Official data on production will be released next week. However, reports from analysts in China suggest that output in August should be at the same level it was in 2025. It is possible that China will start to import less coal from August. Consider that China imports mainly from its neighbours. This includes Mongolia, but also Russia. About 75% of all coal imported is seaborne, but that share has decreased in recent years, as more coal, primarily metallurgical coal, used to manufacture steel, comes from Mongolia. Analysts DBX Commodities estimate that China's seaborne coal imports in August were?31.23 millions tons, down from a previous estimate of?33.91 in July. This is the first decrease in four years. As more cargoes arrive for assessment, the August figures may be revised. However, it is expected that they will fall below July's total, which indicates that China is less in need of imports as safety inspections decrease. Price Reductions After a rise in prices, seaborne coal has started to level off after China increased its imports during June and July. Argus, a commodity reporting agency, assessed the price of 4,200 kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg), a popular grade with Chinese buyers, at $62.51 a tonne in the week ending August 7. It was a slight drop from the monthly assessment, which had been $61.77 per ton in July. However, it was 5.1% lower than the $65.89 of June. China's coal prices and imports are also influenced by the electricity demand. According to official data, China's thermal?production increased 2.9% from a year ago in the first half of 2026. Thermal power is almost exclusively coal-based, with a little natural gas. While it is increasing, the share of its total generation has declined as China continues to add solar and wind power. China produced less than half of its electricity in the first six months of this year from fossil fuels, a first. Government data shows that thermal power made up 49.7%. The reduction of solar incentives has slowed the pace of solar installations. However, wind power will likely ensure that China's share of electricity generated from renewable sources continues to grow. This should lead to a reduction in coal imports over time, particularly if China keeps its domestic coal production levels at the current?levels. It is more likely that months such as June and July when coal imports exceeded?40 millions tons will become the exceptions, rather than the rule. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)
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UN agency: Extreme heat is becoming more intense and frequent
The U.N. weather agency reported on Tuesday that extreme heat periods are becoming more intense, frequent and longer-lasting as climate change warms up the planet. It noted changes since 1976's famously hot European Summer. The fifth heatwave in Europe is affecting parts of Europe during a summer that has been marked by record temperatures, drought and wildfires. John Kennedy, head of climate information at the World Meteorological Organization, said in a Geneva press conference that extreme heat was becoming more common, intense and lasting longer than it did in cooler climates in the past. Kennedy explained that the pattern of heat across Europe - the fastest-warming continent in the world - reflects the interaction of a persistent pattern high-pressure systems throughout the Northern Hemisphere with a?warmer climate. High-pressure systems trap warm?air, reduce cloud coverage and block cooler??air from moving into large regions, allowing heat to build up over large areas for days or even weeks. El Nino, a naturally occurring climate pattern which typically increases global temperatures, is not contributing to Europe’s heat this summer because conditions in tropical Pacific are neutral, he said. Changes in the past five decades Kennedy said that the pattern of high and low pressures systems in June 1976 was similar to what we saw this year. However, he added that the results were different due to decades of global heating. He said that in 1976, there were only a handful of areas with temperatures above the average. Today, however "the picture has been reversed," with temperatures above average across most of the world and just a few "isolated" cooler regions. Kennedy said that the extreme heat in the Mediterranean Sea and waters west of Europe was amplifying the temperatures on land. Marine heatwaves in Mediterranean Sea and west European waters are fueling the hotter conditions on earth by "providing an additional background warmth to persistent high-pressure system,? he said. The heat was intensified by the dry ground because soils heated up more quickly when moisture is drained. Kennedy said that "a lot of these factors have come together to create the record heat we are experiencing this year." Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin, Editing by Keith Weir
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Barrick names Sebastiaan Bok to lead the international business ahead of IPO
Barrick Mining announced on Tuesday that it has appointed Sebastiaan bock as the chief executive officer for its Rest of World division. He will be in charge of all gold and copper projects and operations outside North America. Barrick now has a global leader to lead its international business. The company is preparing to divide its North American assets from its overseas assets, in an effort to sharpen management focus and reduce the 'valuation drag' investors apply to miner with exposure to high-risk jurisdictions. Bock will oversee a portfolio that spans Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, as well as Asia Pacific, producing more than 2,000,000 gold-equivalent pounds annually. The appointment follows Barrick's successful resolution of a long-running dispute with Newmont regarding Nevada mining assets. This cleared the final hurdle to a planned initial IPO of its North American Gold assets which the company anticipates to be completed by the end of the year. Newmont has agreed to pay Barrick 1,95 billion dollars in cash within 30 day and consented for the IPO. On its call to discuss its second-quarter earnings, the company stated that it was seeking a new CEO to run its operations outside North America. Bock?joined Barrick as finance chief?for Africa & the Middle East in 2019. He will become chief operating officer?for the region?in 2020, according to the company. Barrick said its international operations could benefit from closer ties to Chinese partners, through joint investments and technology access. (Reporting and editing by Tasim Zaid in Bengaluru, Varun Sahay from Bengaluru)
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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Long bond
What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets Brent crude traded at almost $90 per barrel on Tuesday, after a 5% increase yesterday. The U.S.'s and Iran's hard-line positions on any potential deal have shattered hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. Below, I will go into more detail. Check out my column about Trump's latest attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve - and how it comes at a nervous time for bond markets. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast where we talk about Nvidia's $500 Billion AI funding push, and much more. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. LONG BOND BOTHER The White House insisted on Monday that Tehran compensate itself and open up all shipping routes. Oil markets are bracing themselves for a prolonged standoff. This will add to the persistent inflation concerns, push?bond yields up and restrain stocks despite a bumper second quarter earnings season. The 30-year Treasury Bond yield is just a hair away from its highest level in nearly 20 years. The Japanese yen fell past the 159 per dollar level on Monday, and continued to fall into Tuesday. Tokyo markets were closed today due to a holiday. The currency markets seem to be testing the will of the U.S. government and the Japanese authorities in their efforts to maintain the yen after the recent historic joint intervention. The currency is being gnawed at by doubts over the Bank of Japan’s willingness to tighten its monetary policy to support the yen buying. There are also concerns on the U.S. Bond Market that a Japanese dollar-sales campaign could lead to a liquidation of Japan's huge Treasury holdings. CoreWeave will also report its U.S. earnings for Tuesday, and this will provide a 'another look at the size of data centers demand in the AI boom. Nvidia announced on Monday that it is working with six Wall Street giants to raise a half-trillion dollars worth of financing to support the AI infrastructure push. Intel, meanwhile, raised $20 billion on Tuesday from a larger share offering. Its shares fell 4% after the announcement. Chart of the Day Japan's yen has weakened this week, testing both the Japanese and U.S. authorities' resolve to continue supporting the currency following the recent historic interventions. The yen buying salvo, which was almost $100 billion in dollar sales, squeezed the speculative short yen positions after they had risen to two-year highs. It is now an open question whether speculators are emboldened enough to rebuild their short positions. Even though Japan's stock markets were closed on Tuesday for a holiday, there is still a lot of trepidation about more intervention. Watch today's events * ?U.S. existing home sales (10 a.m. EDT), 3-year ?note auction (1 p.m. EDT) You can receive the Morning Bid every morning in your email inbox. Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is committed, as part of the Trust Principles to independence, integrity and a lack bias. (By Mike Dolan).
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The rupee falls to a near two-week-low as the US-Iran standoff drives oil prices higher
The Indian rupee fell to its lowest level in almost two weeks on Tuesday, as oil prices rose due to the fading hope of a U.S. Iran deal that would 'end the war' and reopen "the Strait of Hormuz". Traders said that the Reserve Bank of India's likely dollar selling intervention helped to limit the currency losses. The currency was unable to find a balance between competing forces and closed the session at 95.4350 per dollar. This is a 0.15% decrease from the previous close. The Nifty 50 fell 0.5%, and the benchmark 10-year bond also dropped, causing its yield to rise by 3 basis points. India imports almost 90% of its crude oil requirements. Brent crude oil futures rose nearly 2.5% last week to $89.9 a barrel. The rupee was helped by the?absence of large withdrawals or derivative maturities on that day, but if the oil price continues to rise, it is likely to hover around 95.80 in the near future, unless the RBI steps up. The frequent central bank interventions in recent sessions have kept volatility expectations for the dollar-rupee exchange rate in check despite renewed concerns about conflict in Middle East. Dollar-rupee implied volatility for a 1-month period, which is a measure of future expectations fell to 4,6% on Tuesday, its lowest level since late June. This is a reflection of market expectations that central banks will not permit sharp movements. This week, the focus is on the consumer inflation data due for India and the U.S. Analysts at DBS wrote in a recent note that if Brent crude prices stabilize around $70-100 per barrel it will reduce geopolitical 'tail risks' around the U.S.Iran conflict, and keep the FX markets highly data-dependent. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Ronojoy Mazumdar, Janane Venkatraman and Jaspreetkalra)
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European electricity prices rise as heatwave reduces French nuclear production and German wind
The fifth summer heatwave has pushed up European spot electricity prices by more than 20%. High temperatures are expected to curtail French nuclear power production, and German wind speeds will slow. Heatwaves have caused unprecedented temperatures in Europe, leading to water shortages, fires and even deaths. The French day-ahead electricity prices soared by 21.8%, to EUR142.5 ($164.35), per megawatt hour. In Germany, the contract increased by 22.8%, to EUR138.50/MWh. EDF data shows that the French nuclear production is likely to be limited at its midday peak by 7.3 gigawatts, or about 12% of their entire fleet. France depends on nuclear energy for 70% of its total energy production. Four units will be limited due to the high temperatures of water. Two French reactors will be completely offline. A third?nuclear?reactor is also expected to be shut down due to low river levels. Alessandro Armenia, a Kpler analyst, said that the heatwave in France is expected to peak from Wednesday - Friday. "I'd expect shutdowns from Tuesday or Wednesday and they could last until next week," he added. French regulations limit the amount of heat that plants can discharge in rivers to protect the environment, so reactors are forced to reduce output during heatwaves. LSEG data shows that German wind output will drop from 8.1 GW down to 4.7 GW. This is about 60% lower than the average at this time of the year. Heatwaves can bring still weather and limit wind power. This increases reliance on gas, which has become more expensive due to the ongoing disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. Germany's increasing reliance on solar and wind has replaced coal and gas, so the country must ramp up gas turbines when wind speeds drop. Nuclear shortages also have a ripple effect across borders. Armenia stated that the outages have a direct impact on Britain and Germany, as nuclear exports are cheaper than coal & gas plants which set prices in neighboring countries. As people use air conditioners and fans, the heatwave will increase demand for electricity. Meteo-France has said that the heat will continue to increase Thursday and Friday with temperatures reaching between 35 and 39 degrees Celsius across most regions. However, it could begin to cool down over the weekend.
Three reactors shut down by jellyfish at French nuclear plant
Operator EDF reported that three reactors were shut down at France's Gravelines nuclear power plant late Monday night due to an enormous swarm. This triggered preventative measures implemented last year, after the entire facility went offline.
The plant is located in northern France and is the largest of its kind in the country. It is cooled by a canal that connects to the North Sea. The six units produce 900 Megawatts each or 5.4 Gigawatts total.
Due to the swarm, reactors 2, 3, and 4 have been taken offline. Reactor 1 has also had its output limited to 50% as a precaution. EDF reported that reactor 5 had been 'already taken offline for maintenance' and reactor 6 was still fully operational.
The operator implemented new monitoring?and trawling methods to try to avoid or limit future events.
Engineers at EDF have installed fixed cameras in the intake?canals, on the filter drum screens and the intake?canals to detect any blockages as quickly as possible.
The engineer explained that the company also has partnered with two French fishing organisations and one sea rescue organization, who monitor for swarms. They can then raise an alarm to allow fishermen to conduct targeted trawling to reduce swarm density before they reach the plant.
After an initial alert was raised on Saturday, the?fishing boat were deployed to limit the impact of the swarm. He said that vacuum trucks are used to remove the jellyfish already present on the site.
They added that since no new jellyfish have arrived, the cleanup has been completed, and should lead to a "quick restart" of the units.
EDF stated that the situation has no impact on the safety or environment of the facility. Scientists warn that such events may become more frequent due to factors like global warming, the arrival and spread of invasive species as well as habitat loss for predators. EDF also has heat-limited reactors across the country as a 5th heatwave?is expected to continue throughout the week, and?limit French nuclear output.
A reactor in the North has been off-line for the majority of the summer because of low river levels. Another reactor has only had a few restarts, and has remained mostly offline for the bulk of July.
(source: Reuters)