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Ten trading days that rocked financial markets
Shuntaro Sayuchi said that the pain was a 10/10. His appendix, not his portfolio of Japanese stocks, which he manages out of San Francisco in California. The truth would come out just as Matthews Asia's colleagues were on the phone to plot a course for the $7 billion asset management firm through an intensifying market downturn. Takeuchi said, "I was on the conference call just two minutes before surgery." The nurse asked: "Do you have to be here?" Tokyo's Nikkei index was heading for a 4% decline on Wednesday, and global equity markets were losing trillions of dollars, the biggest dollar value drops in history. Since President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on automakers, the 10 trading days have seen the biggest swings in the price of everything from stocks, bonds, oil, and gold to the U.S. Dollar itself. The selling of U.S. Treasuries, the safest asset on the global market and the cornerstone of international trade, was the most intense in decades. It seemed to be a way to show how much the foundations for finance and trade have been weakened. The meltdown started after what Trump called "Liberation Day". On April 2, he raised the highest wall of trade tariffs around the U.S. economic system in 100 years, with a blanket tax of 10% on imports as well as higher rates for individual trading partners. The week after that, it has become an open economic conflict between the United States and China. By Friday, China was under a U.S. embargo on trade as tariffs reached 145%. During the wild ride that began on April 2, more than $5 trillion of market value vanished from the MSCI world stock index. The roller-coaster ride since April 2 has revealed how investors were not prepared for Trump's aggressive tariffs, and that his unpredictable nature and reversals could harm the United States' position as the financial centre. Geoff Wilson is a veteran Australian fund manager. He said, "We have seen a fracture in confidence. We don't yet know the second-order consequences of the market's fall." The next few weeks will reveal the full extent of any consequences. His funds were buyers during the turmoil. TOMB SWEEPING The initial focus of the selling was on any exposure to economic growth, including banks, industrial metals, and companies such as Apple that have supply chains in China. China then retaliated by imposing a 34% duty on all imports from the U.S., shortly before sunset on April 4, tomb sweeping day, a national holiday for paying respect to ancestors. The main global stock index has surpassed the threshold of what is called a "correction", a drop of at least 10% from its peak. Even gold, a safe haven during turbulent times, began to tumble, a sign of doom as investors faced with margin calls had to sell their most secure assets to cover losses. Wong Kok Hoi is the founder and CEO of APS Asset Management, based in Singapore. He has been worried about this scenario for many years. He said that he had never imagined tariffs could rise to 125%. In the days following, tit-fort-tat levies increased. The two biggest economies of the world will cease to trade. He said that his portfolio had grown by around 20% this year. TRADE WAR Wall Street bankers listened in on global meetings to try to calm down clients. Last weekend, there were hopes that Trump would give in before tariffs are implemented. On Sunday, after a golfing weekend, reporters asked him what markets were on Air Force One. He replied "sometimes you need to take medicine." This opened the floodgates. Nasdaq futures soon fell more than 5%, and Nikkei Futures sank 8% before hitting a circuit breaker. The CBOE Volatility Index - Wall Street's fear gauge - spiked over 60, a level that is usually seen in meltdowns like 2020 or 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 ended the day 17% lower than a record high that it had reached just seven weeks prior. Christopher Forbes, CMC Markets' head of Asia, said that Friday and Monday had the highest trading volume ever. Takeuchi in California was not only rushing to have surgery but also trying to protect his portfolio. He said that he traded, buying and then selling stocks when they hit the target price or were at a good buy. He looked for companies with limited U.S.-exposure, without wanting to bet on specific sectors or Trump's trade policy. I don't want it to sound too dramatic. We are not in a panic. We control the risks and concentrate on stock selection. BOND FIRE Currency markets have been the main target of price adjustments for tariffs. Bonds were the real shocker. In the early morning hours of Wednesday, just after the tariffs went into effect in New York's middle of the night, Treasuries were hit by a huge wave of selling in Asia. The yields, which are usually small because the market is liquid, exploded and released the most manic phase of the markets' tariff tantrum. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond jumped by nearly 20 basis points within two hours. Traders interpreted this as either a sign of forced selling in some part of the market or, more alarmingly, that U.S. government bonds are no longer a safe-haven. Within hours, the markets were once again thrown into turmoil. Trump shocked the world when he announced a pause in the higher bilateral tariffs. He also kept a 10% blanket tax on imports while raising levies on China. The stock market roared to new heights, registering some of the biggest percentage gains since 2008. However, with all the uncertainty, they are now starting to tremble again. WHIPLASH Martin Whetton is Westpac's director of financial markets strategy. He has spent 30 years on the markets of Sydney and London. He said: "The fact that money didn't scramble for U.S. Dollar funding to buy Treasuries or the U.S. Dollar as a safety net is shocking and a stark warning." On Friday, the 11th session after Trump announced his auto tariffs, fatigue had set in, but little dust was settled. Beijing increased its tariffs against U.S. imports by 125% on Friday. Stocks dropped, the dollar fell to its lowest level in a decade against the Swiss franc as a safe haven and the talk turned towards whether this period marked the beginning of an end to U.S. financial dominance. Jack McIntyre is the portfolio manager at Brandywine Global U.S., which manages assets worth almost $60 billion. "You concentrate on what you know," said he, with an eye to further drops in the dollar, as the U.S. economic slowdown continues and the rest of world may continue selling U.S. asset.
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Southern California Edison announces a $925 million plan for rebuilding after the LA wildfires
Southern California Edison, a subsidiary utility Edison International said it submitted a plan on Friday to rebuild areas in its service area that were destroyed by the Los Angeles fires of January. SCE stated that the preliminary plan, which was presented to California Governor Gavin Newsom, is estimated to cost between $925 million and $860 million. Securing alternative funding sources, they added, was crucial to make this plan a success. Wildfires ravaged LA beginning on 7 January, causing dozens of fatalities and the destruction of thousands of homes. The cost of the disaster is estimated to have been the highest in U.S. History. Although the cause of the fires is not known, there are several lawsuits that claim SCE towers and power lines in Altadena caused the Eaton Fire. SCE was also sued by LA County and Pasadena City. The company stated on Friday that the investigation is ongoing and "remains dedicated to transparency with the general public". The preliminary plan will also focus on undergrounding the power lines located in Altadena, Malibu and Los Angeles County. Reporting by Vallari Shrivastava, Bengaluru. Editing by Shinjini Ganuli
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As the turbulent week ends, US bond yields are rising and the dollar is down.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields recorded their largest weekly increase in more than 20 years on Friday. Meanwhile, the dollar fell in a turbulent, trade-war-driven week. Gold prices reached another record on Friday, after Beijing raised its tariffs against U.S. goods to 125% in response to President Donald Trump's decision. Investors have been thrown into a wild swing this week after Trump announced sweeping tariffs. Still, the major U.S. indexes rose by more than 1% in one day as the banks began the earnings season for the first quarter. Susan Collins, the president of the Boston Federal Reserve, also gave assurances that the Fed was prepared to maintain financial markets if necessary. The three main U.S. stock indexes rose dramatically for the entire week. The yields on ten-year Treasury bonds jumped significantly this week. Trading volumes were well above the average. This was due to fears that China could be selling a large part of its U.S. Bond holdings following the announcement of U.S. Tariffs. Tim Ghriskey is a senior portfolio strategist with Ingalls & Snyder, based in New York. He said that there would be a lot of rumors. The Treasury market was stabilized by the strong auctions on Wednesday and Thursday of 30-year and 10-year bonds, but investors are still hesitant to buy bonds until liquidity improves. The yield on 10-year notes was up 8.6 basis points in the last day, to 4.478%. It reached its highest level since February 13th at 4.592%. The weekly growth rate was the highest since 2001. Concerns about The U.S. Trade Policy made euro-denominated investments appear more secure than their counterparts in dollars. The benchmark yield for the eurozone bloc, the German 10-year bond, fell 5 basis points to 2.53% last Friday. JPMorgan Chase reported earnings along with Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. The results were mostly better than expected for the first three months. JPMorgan shares rose 4%. Investors will be looking to see if U.S. firms continue to provide guidance during earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 619.05 or 1.56% to 40,212.71. The S&P 500 gained 95.31 or 1.81% to 5,363.36. And the Nasdaq Composite advanced by 337.15 or 2.06% to 16,724.46. The Nasdaq recorded its largest weekly percentage gain since Nov 2022. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 11.36 points or 1.46 percent to 790.63. However, the pan-European STOXX 600 ended with a 0.1% decline. Investors digested two reports: one showing that the U.S. consumer's sentiment declined sharply in April, and another showing that U.S. producer prices fell unexpectedly in March. The dollar fell 0.9% to 0.81650 Swiss Francs, continuing the losses from the previous session where it plummeted to its lowest level in January 2015. The dollar is set to have its largest weekly decline since November 2022. Dollar-euro exchange rate also reached a new low. Gold spot was up 2% to $3,236.67 per ounce after reaching a session high of $3.243.82. Bullion has risen over 6% in the last week. Prices of oil also rose. Brent crude futures ended at $64.76 per barrel, an increase of $1.43 or 2.26%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate finished at $61.50 per barrel, an increase of $1.43 (or 2.38%).
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Pennsylvania man charged with threats to kill Trump and immigration agents
The U.S. Justice Department announced on Friday that a Pennsylvania man was charged with online threats to kill President Donald Trump and immigration officers. Shawn Monper (32), was charged with four counts on Wednesday of threatening to kill a U.S. government official in order to impede the official duties. The criminal complaint was filed at federal court in Pittsburgh. In a press release, Attorney General Pam Bondi stated that "you can rest assured that this Department of Justice, wherever and whenever threats of mass violence or assassination occur, will find, arrest, and prosecute the suspected to the fullest extent of law and seek maximum appropriate punishment." Monper, between February and April, made several comments to YouTube threatening to kill Trump, high-ranking U.S. officials, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, according to the lawsuit. Monper wrote, "Nah we just need start killing people. Trump, Elon and all the heads appointed by Trump. And anyone who stands between us," in a message that was cited in he complaint. Elon Musk, a billionaire businessman, has been an advisor to Trump during his campaign to downsize the federal government and reshape it. The defendant has yet to enter a plea. The defendant has been in U.S. custody awaiting a hearing on Monday. Monper is a native of Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump was the target of an assassination last July when he ran for president. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Goudsward)
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Source: US and Ukraine have tense discussions as mineral deal is still elusive
Sources with knowledge in the matter say that U.S. officials and Ukrainian officials met Friday to discuss a U.S. plan to gain access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth. However, they also said the chances of a breakthrough are slim, given the "anti-social" atmosphere at the meeting. Source: The tensions in Washington stemmed from Trump's latest draft proposal which is more expansive than its original version. The source pointed out that the "maximalist draft" submitted by the Trump Administration last month was a sign of the hostile negotiating climate. A spokesperson for the Treasury Department confirmed that discussions were "technical" in nature. The latest draft would grant the U.S. exclusive access to Ukraine's minerals deposits, and Kyiv must place all earnings from the exploitation by Ukrainian state-owned and private companies of natural resources in a joint fund for investment. The proposed deal would not, however, provide U.S. guarantees of security to Kyiv, a priority for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in its fight against Russian forces that occupy about 20% of Ukraine's territory. One of the "Easter Eggs" in the document, according to the source, was the U.S. request that the International Development Finance Corporation of the U.S. take control of a gas pipeline that runs from the Russian energy giant Gazprom through Ukraine and into Europe. Source: The Ukrainian government hired Hogan Lovells to act as outside advisors on the mineral deal. Zelenskiy said on Wednesday that a mineral deal could be structured to help modernize Ukraine and be profitable for both parties. In two weeks, top Ukrainian officials such as Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal and Finance Ministry Serhiy Marenko will be in Washington for meetings with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. This includes a ministers' gathering on April 25 that will focus on Ukraine. As part of his efforts to end the conflict and to recover billions in U.S. Military assistance to Kyiv, U.S. president Donald Trump wants a deal that covers Ukraine's minerals. This includes rare earths. (Reporting and additional reporting by Gram Slattery, writing by Jonathan Landay, editing by Don Durfee & Cynthia Osterman).
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As the week winds down, US bond yields are rising and the dollar is falling.
As a turbulent week came to an end, U.S. Treasury rates rose to their highest level in two months on Friday. The 10-year rate was also on course for its biggest weekly rise in decades. U.S. indexes rose by more than 1%. Bank shares also increased following a string of positive earnings. Susan Collins, the Boston Federal Reserve president, also gave assurances that the Fed was prepared to maintain financial markets if necessary. Gold prices reached another record after Beijing raised its tariffs against U.S. goods to 125% in response to President Donald Trump's decision. Since Trump announced his sweeping tariffs in April, the markets have been shook by fears of recession and a global trade war. Tim Ghriskey is a senior portfolio strategist with Ingalls & Snyder, New York. He said that Trump continues to dominate headlines and financial markets as we enter this period of negotiating new tariffs. He said that there would be a lot of rumors. Investors digested two reports: one showing that the U.S. consumer's sentiment declined sharply in April, and another showing that U.S. producer prices fell unexpectedly in March. The results of some major Wall Street banks were also examined, as they kicked off U.S. quarterly reporting. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley were among those who released reports. The majority of them showed that major U.S. Banks beat their forecasts for the quarter. JPMorgan shares rose 4.6%. Investors remain nervous over further bond market liquidity amid Trump's unpredictable tariff policy. Last week, the 10-year yield increased by 10.3 basis points to 4.495%. It has now reached its highest level since February 13th. The weekly increase is set to be the biggest since 2001. Analysts say hedge funds and asset managers sold bonds this week, after they received margin calls and suffered sharp losses due to market volatility. The strong auctions of 30-year and 10-year debt held on Wednesday and Thursday stabilized the market, but investors are still hesitant to buy bonds until liquidity improves. The yields on euro zone bonds had eased earlier, and the premium demanded by holders of Treasuries to hold U.S. bond rather than German bunds, rose the most since the 1990s. Investors will be looking to see if U.S. firms continue to provide guidance during earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 648.65, or 1.6%, to reach 40,242.31. The S&P 500 gained 93.70, or 1.8%, to reach 5,361.75 while the Nasdaq Composite grew 312.92, or 1.59%, to 16,700.23. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 11.55 points or 1.48% to 790.82. The pan-European STOXX 600 ended the day down 0.1%. The dollar continued to lose against the Swiss Franc, falling to its lowest level since January 2015. The dollar fell 0.72% against the Swiss Franc to 0.817. Dollar also fell to a three-year-low versus euro. Gold spot was up 2% to $3,236.67 per ounce after reaching a session high of $3.243.82. Bullion has risen over 6% in the last week. Oil prices climbed. Brent crude futures settled on $64.76 per barrel, an increase of $1.43 or 2.26%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate finished at $61.50 per barrel, an increase of $1.43 (or 2.38%). Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch and Amanda Cooper, both in New York; editing by Nia and Rod Nickel.
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Valero Mexico is suspended from the import registry of motor fuels in Mexico
Valero Mexico announced on Friday that the tax authority of the country had informed it that they were "momentarily suspended" from the list of motor fuel importers. However, Valero Mexico stated that it is cooperating in an investigation. Valero Mexico, one of Mexico's largest private importers and exporters of gasoline and diesel said that the permit is valid until 2038. Mexico, a major crude oil producer, imports gasoline and diesel in order to meet its national motor fuel demand. This is because the state-owned Pemex company struggles to refine the heavy sour refined crude that it pumps. Mexico's tax authority didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. The company said that it was responding promptly to the observations of the authorities as outlined in the suspension notice, and intending to clarify these. It is the largest private importer of motor gasoline in the country, and plays a key role in meeting the energy demand. Valero Mexico and its partners have invested over a billion dollars since 2017 in infrastructure.
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White House budget proposal eliminates NOAA climate research
According to a draft White House Budget document, the administration of Donald Trump wants to eliminate the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration arm that oversees climate change research and redirect the U.S. Fisheries Service to support energy development. According to the proposal, these moves are part a plan that aims to drastically reduce NOAA, cutting funding by approximately $1.67 billion or 27%. Under the proposal, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, also known as NOAA Research would be closed, along with funding of $480 million for regional climate information, agency laboratories and cooperative institutes among other programs. NOAA is a division of Commerce that manages the commercial fisheries of the United States. It also monitors oceanic and atmospheric conditions. As part of its efforts to reduce government bureaucracy, the Trump administration has terminated hundreds of NOAA employees. Officials from the White House and Commerce Department were not available to comment immediately. According to the proposal, NOAA will transfer the key responsibilities for the National Marine Fisheries Service(NMFS) in protecting marine mammals and endangered species to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is housed within the Interior Department. NMFS (formerly NOAA Fisheries) would lose funding for programs such as species recovery grants, grants to interjurisdictional fishing, and habitat conservation and restore - all of which are important to the commercial fisheries industry. The document stated that "NMFS should prioritise permitting and consultation activities to support Administration priorities" and "unleash American energy". According to the document, the proposal would retain $170 million of (OAR), funding for certain programs related to severe weather, ocean exploration and severe storms. Reporting by Valerie Volcovici and Nichola in Los Angeles. Editing by Margueritachoy.
German wind power to drop on Monday
The market untraded the German and French power prices for the following Monday on Friday, as it weighed the expected decline in wind power in the region against the general decrease in demand.
LSEG data shows that the German and French baseload power prices for Monday were not traded by 1050 GMT.
According to LSEG, the German wind output is expected to decline by 6.4 gigawatts to 2.7 GW while France's was predicted to drop by 7.3 GW down to 1.8 GW.
Riccardo Paraviero, LSEG analyst, said that the German residual load increased week-over-week Monday due to a drop in renewable supply.
The French nuclear capacity fell by two percentage points, to 77% total, as the Paluel 3 Reactor went offline due to an unplanned shutdown.
EDF, the operator of Paluel 3, said that the reactor was taken off-line to test a pump that supplies the primary circuit.
LSEG data shows that power consumption in Germany will fall by 870 megawatts to 58.7 GW while in France, demand is expected to drop 2.5 GW to 51 GW.
The German power contract for the year ahead rose 2.6%, to 82.50 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), whereas the French baseload contract for 2025 was not traded with a bid of 62.10 Euros/MWh.
The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets rose by 2%, to 68.69 euro per metric ton. (Reporting and editing by Forrest Crellin)
(source: Reuters)