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Investors reassess Middle East peace prospects as oil prices rise
Oil prices rose?on Friday, recovering some?previous-day's losses, as investors reexamined the prospects for a?deescalation of conflict in the Middle East. Iran also said that it was still evaluating a U.S. plan to end the conflict, which had disrupted the energy flow. Brent futures increased $1.13 or 1.1% to $103.35 a bar by 0051 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures were also up $1.08 or 1.2% at $91.40 a bar. Both benchmarks fell more than 2% Wednesday. Iran's Foreign Minister?said that despite reviewing the proposal, it has no intention to hold talks in order to end the growing conflict in the Middle East. Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, said that Donald Trump would hit Iran harder if Tehran refused to acknowledge that it had been "defeated military" Tsuyoshi ueno, senior researcher at NLI Research Institute said that optimism regarding a possible ceasefire had faded. He said that Washington's 'barrier of expectation' was high and the oil price could be volatile if both sides do not negotiate or take military action. According to three Israeli sources who are familiar with Trump's plan, the '15-point' proposal sent via Pakistan calls for Iran's highly enriched uranium stocks to be removed, enrichment halted, its ballistic missile programme curtailed, and funding cut off for regional allies. The conflict has almost completely stopped shipments through Strait of Hormuz. This is the route that carries one-fifth of all crude oil and natural gas shipped around the world. The International Energy Agency called it the largest oil supply disruption ever. Sources said that India has purchased its first cargo of liquefied gas from Iran in many years, after the U.S. lifted temporary sanctions on Tehran's refined fuels and oil. During talks on Wednesday, the Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi requested that Fatih Birol 'coordinate an additional release of oil stocks. Tokyo is seeking to protect itself against a long-term Middle East conflict. Three Iraqi energy officials stated on Wednesday that the production of Iraqi oil has dropped, and that storage tanks have reached critical levels. According to market data, calculations show that at least 40% of Russia’s oil export capability is halted following Ukrainian drone strikes, a disputed assault on a major pipeline, and the seizure or tankers. The U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.9m barrels, to 456.2m barrels during the week ending March 20. This is the highest level since June 2024. It also far exceeded analysts' expectations based on a poll that predicted a 477,000 barrel increase. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann, Kevin Buckland and Yuka Obayashi)
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Worker sues Valero over Texas refinery explosion
A man who claimed to have been injured in an explosion at Valero Energy’s Port Arthur, Texas refinery Monday night filed a suit on Wednesday with a state district court, alleging that the?company?failed?to properly maintain the refinery. The lawsuit filed at the Jefferson County District Court of Beaumont, Texas, is seeking more than $1,000,000 in damages. A Valero spokesperson had no immediate comment on Wednesday night. Valero filed a report with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) on Tuesday. The company stated: "An unexpected release of fluid from Complex?2 caused an ignition event, and multiple process units were upset." Jonathan Jaimes, who was working at the Port Arthur refinery in east Texas near the Louisiana border, was present when a diesel hydrotreater explosion shook homes up to 18 kilometres away. "(Jaimes played no role in the tasks or events that led to the explosion. According to the lawsuit, "the blast and heat of the fire from the explosion caused him to be injured as a result." The lawsuit stated that Jaimes suffered injuries to his back, neck, spine, and other parts. He is also suffering from a?post-traumatic stress disorder. In an emailed message, Kyle Findley, an lawyer at Arnold & Itkin who represents?Jaimes said, "This wasn't an unavoidable incident - it was a result of gross negligence, and a flagrant disrespect for worker safety." Findley stated that Valero was aware of the risks in this facility but chose to ignore them. "If a company shows such a disregard for the safety of their workers and the community around them, they must be held responsible." Jaimes refused to comment when contacted by a representative of the law firm Arnold & Itkin.
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Australia's Lynas signs potential rare earths agreement with South Korea's LS Eco Energy
Australia's Lynas rare Earths and LS Eco Energy, a South Korean company, announced on Thursday that they would 'work together' to process rare-earth metals to meet the demand of customers scrambling for non-Chinese suppliers. According to a preliminary 'agreement', LS Eco Energy will build a processing facility in Vietnam that will supply rare earth oxides. The South Korean company plans to use these metals in the U.S. to produce permanent rare earth magnets. LS has stated that it plans to begin operations at its Vietnam factory by the fourth quarter of this calendar year. Rare earths are used in tiny but critical quantities to make magnets for everything from iPhones to cars and F-35 jets. China has dominated global supply of rare earths for many years, but export restrictions imposed in response to U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs are encouraging other nations to find alternative sources. Lee Sang-ho is the CEO of LS Eco Energy. He said that customers from the automotive, industrial and other sectors were trying to establish supply chains outside of China. He said that as China has weaponised rare Earths, they must quickly create a value chain by purchasing non-Chinese earths at premium prices. Lynas said the new facility would help it supply more metallised NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium) and selected heavy rare earth products, with the first stage to focus on ?samarium, used in the aerospace and automotive industries. The two companies also agreed to separate deals in which Lynas and LS Eco Energy, the largest rare earth 'producers outside China, would both cross-subscribe for about A$30 millions ($20.84 mln) of convertible instruments. LS 'Eco Energy', a division of LS Cable & System (a major cable manufacturer), hopes to use metals expertise while utilizing the group’s existing factory locations in Vietnam and the United States in order to'reduce costs. Non-Chinese firms have struggled to compete with Chinese competitors on price and technology. Projects are stuck in the 'drawing board' for years. Companies are finding it more difficult to invest in the production of key minerals, such as those needed for electric motors, due to the slowing EV demand.
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ROI-Inflation-spooked rates markets have overshot: McGeever
The markets overshoot. And the recent dramatic increase in "bets" on higher interest rates due to the Middle East energy crisis is just the latest example: the move is logical but its magnitude is questionable. The Iran?war is not over and the markets are still 'in flux' as the dust settles after one of the most busy central bank weeks of recent years. Rates traders may want to take a pause and reevaluate. The abrupt change in global rates reflects concerns about the short-term impact on inflation of the soaring prices for oil and gas. Federal Reserve now has a higher probability of raising U.S. interest rates in this year rather than cutting them. The European Central Bank and Bank of England will also likely raise their rates multiple times starting next month. Zoom in on the shifts in Europe. On February 27, a day before the joint U.S. - Israeli strike on Iran, UK rate futures indicated 50 basis points of ease by the end of the year, or two quarter point rate cuts. This has now flipped into almost 75 basis point of tightening or three rate hikes. It is remarkable to see a 125-basis-point swing in just a few weeks. Euro zone futures are now pricing in two rate increases, from implying the ECB would keep its key policy rate at 2% throughout this year. This hawkish course could be realized. The policymakers have not recovered from the mistake they made in 2021-22 when they misread "transitory inflation". The?last two time they raised rates when oil was well above $100 per barrel, in 2008 and 2011, they were widely accused as making policy mistakes. Limits of 2022 Comparative Analysis Analysts are drawing comparisons between the current energy crisis and the shock caused by Russia's invasion in Ukraine? in February 2022, which helped to fuel the worst bouts of inflation on developed markets for decades. There are some key differences. Interest rates in February 2022 were significantly lower than what they are now. The G4 central banks' policy rates were near zero lower bound at that time. In addition, trillions of dollars in stimulus money for pandemic fighting and the explosion of economic activity following lockdowns also contributed to inflation in 2022. Early 2022, real interest rates were negative. The combination of super-easy fiscal policy and monetary policies meant that inflation was far from temporary. The U.S. inflation rate has not returned to its target despite the biggest hike cycle in over 40 years. Today, fiscal stimulus is on the agenda. Governments from Washington to Tokyo and Berlin are planning to cut taxes while spending heavily on energy and defense. These volumes are nowhere near as large as the pandemic-fighting package that was worth at least 10% GDP. GOLDMAN AND CITI STICK WITH THE U.S. RATE CUTS VIEW Goldman Sachs economists and Citi analysts are part of a shrinking group that is fighting the tide of forecast revisions. They also want the Fed to act quickly and raise rates in order to curb price pressures. Jan Hatzius, his team and Goldman still expect two Fed rate reductions this year. Andrew Hollenhorst and team from Citi are still calling for three. The argument is that any inflation will be temporary, perhaps lasting a few weeks, but the risks for growth and employment are much greater. They expect a temporary shock to the supply that will raise prices, but also deal a greater blow to demand. It's not impossible. The Purchasing Managers' Index data released on Tuesday revealed that the U.S. Private Sector output in March was at its lowest level in 11 months. Overall activity in Europe fell to a 10 month low. And activity in Britain grew at its slowest rate in six months. The rate markets are understandably on edge due to the "speed and magnitude" of the energy shock. It will be hard to justify raising interest rates when unemployment and growth are slowing, even if inflation is higher than target in the U.S. or Britain. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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US oil prices increase as investors evaluate Middle East deescalation
U.S. Oil Prices rose in the early trade on Thursday. They recovered a portion of their previous day's loss as investors assessed prospects for de-escalation?in the Middle East. Iran also reviewed the U.S. proposal that would end the Gulf War, which has caused energy supplies to be disrupted. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures?climbed over $1 to $91.42 per barrel at the opening?and were 93 cents or 1% higher at $91.25 per barrel as of 2225 GMT. WTI fell 2.2% on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official said on Wednesday that Iran was still reviewing a U.S. plan to end the war in the Gulf despite a negative initial response. He indicated that Tehran has not yet rejected it outright. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that U.S. President Donald Trump would hit Iran harder if Tehran refused to accept the fact that?the nation had been "defeated militaryly". Iranian officials have publicly dismissed the idea of any negotiation with 'the Trump administration. The 'apparent delay' in responding to Pakistan after it submitted a '15-point proposal for Washington on behalf of Tehran, seemed to indicate that some in Tehran were considering the idea. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann; Yuka Obayashi)
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Boliden, Sweden's mining company, expects a hit in Q1 earnings due to seismic activity.
Boliden announced on Wednesday that it expected earnings for the first quarter of 2026 - before interest, taxes and depreciation - to be impacted by about 400 million Swedish crowns ($42.77m) due to production being impacted in its Garpenberg Mine because of abnormally high earthquake activity earlier this month. Swedish miner reported its first-quarter production was slightly less than 0.8 million tonnes, down from an initial?expectation that slightly more than 0.9 million tonnes. The company said that production in the worst affected part of the mine will not resume until 2026. Garpenberg said that until further notice, its production will be approximately 30% of its earlier guided capacity, which was 3.7 million tonnes per year. A copper and zinc miner stated that a "large part" of the mine's infrastructure, such as crushers, hoisting systems, and workshop, were not affected by the earthquake activity. The company stated that a large amount of electrical infrastructure, pressure air systems and ventilation have been damaged. This will require renovations, which are estimated to take a few weeks. The company that operates seven mines, five smelters, and five smelters throughout the Nordic region, Ireland, and Portugal, has said that seismic activity at Garpenberg is now decreasing, and mining production will start in the second quarter. Boliden reported last month that its fourth quarter adjusted earnings were below analyst expectations. However, it proposed a dividend higher than expected for 2025. Recent performance of the company has been improved by higher gold prices. This has increased realised revenue from precious materials collected as a byproduct during mining and smelting. The company also benefits from higher prices for zinc.
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Chilean antitrust watchdog approves Codelco - Anglo American mining plan
The antitrust regulator of the South American country has given the green light to a joint mining plan between Codelco and Anglo American for the Andina Los Bronces project. Chile is the top copper producer in the world. Anglo American is one of the major operators in this Andean nation. Codelco said that the project is progressing with the regulatory approval process. The project has already been approved by competition watchdogs from China, Brazil and South Korea. The remaining steps are the acquisition of environmental permits, creation of the joint entity and consultations within the local community. Codelco and Anglo American signed an agreement last September to operate their adjacent?copper mining operations together. The deal aims at generating a minimum of $5 billion in cost savings and increased production. The plan is to?combine certain operations?at Codelco’s Andina Mine and Anglo American’s Los Bronces Mine in the Andes Mountains of central Chile. This will increase production by?120,000 metric tons per year. (Reporting and editing by Inigo Alexandra, Will Dunham, and Natalia Siniawski).
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Trump to hit Iran harder if Tehran does not accept defeat, White House says
White House Press Secretary Karoline L. Leavitt stated that the United States issued a stern warning on Wednesday to Iran, saying President Donald Trump would strike 'harder' if Tehran refused to accept they had been "defeated militaryly". "President Trump is not a bluff, and he's prepared to unleash hell." Leavitt, in a briefing to reporters, said that Iran shouldn't?miscalculate" again. She said that if Iran does not accept the present reality, or if it fails to understand they are militarily defeated and will remain so, President Trump will make sure they get hit harder than they ever have before. The joint U.S. and Israeli war against Iran is now in its fourth week. Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt have all made efforts to mediate a potential?negotiation? to end the conflict, but there was still uncertainty about where and when such talks would take place. A senior Iranian official said on Wednesday that Iran was still reviewing the U.S. proposal to end the war despite a negative initial response. He indicated that Tehran had not yet rejected it outright. Leavitt said that talks with Iran were still ongoing. "Talks continue. "They are productive," she said, "as President Obama stated on Monday. They continue to be so."
How three European human rights cases could form climate litigation
Does federal government inactiveness on climate change violate human rights?
That is the question the European Court of Human being Rights will for the very first time seek to respond to in Strasbourg, France, as it guidelines on Tuesday on 3 separate climate cases.
The verdicts will set a precedent for future lawsuits on how rising temperatures affect people's right to a liveable world.
The following sets out what is at stake.
WHAT ARE THE SUITS?
Six Portuguese youths are taking legal action against 32 European nations for supposedly stopping working to prevent disastrous climate modification that they state threatens their right to life.
The case, which has actually been described by experts as David v. Goliath, does not ask for monetary payment, however for federal governments to considerably cut emissions.
At the exact same time, thousands of senior Swiss women have argued that their government's woefully insufficient efforts to battle worldwide warming put them at danger of passing away throughout heatwaves.
The ladies's attorneys are seeking a judgment that might require Bern to cut carbon dioxide emissions much faster than planned.
In the third and final case, Damien Carême, a previous mayor of the French commune of Grande-Synthe, is challenging France's. refusal to take more ambitious environment steps.
WHAT RIGHTS MAY HAVE BEEN VIOLATED?
This will be the first time the European Court guidelines on. whether presumably weak environment change policies infringe on. individuals's human rights enshrined in the European Convention.
The Portuguese youths have argued their right to life is. threatened by climate change-driven occasions such as wildfires,. which failure to deal with climate modification especially. discriminates against youths who face the prospect of an. progressively unliveable world.
The Swiss females have actually stated Bern violated their right to life. by failing to cut emissions in line with a pathway that restricts. international warming to 1.5 C (2.7 F).
Their case points out a U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. Change report that found that females and older grownups were among. those at highest risk of temperature-related deaths during. heatwaves, and uses the candidates' medical records to reveal. their vulnerability.
Carême's application, made in 2019, will assess whether. inadequate government action can amount to an offense of the. right to life, by exposing people's homes to climate risk.
All of us are trying to achieve the same goal, said. 23-year-old Catarina Mota, one of the Portuguese youths. A win. in any among the 3 cases will be a win for everyone.
WHAT COULD THE RULINGS BE?
The 17-judge panel could release very different verdicts for. each case. The judgments can not be appealed.
The three cases are rather unique in regards to who's. bringing the case, which federal government or federal governments is being. taken legal action against, and what the ask is in the case, stated Lucy Maxwell,. co-director of the Environment Litigation Network.
Some of the involved governments have actually argued the cases are. inadmissible. Switzerland has stated it is not Strasbourg's task to. be supreme court on environmental matters or to implement. environment treaties.
The court may choose a case is too tough to fit within. the existing framework of the Court and requires to be decided at a. national level, Maxwell said. The latter is a common result. that could supercharge nationwide responsibility.
The European Court may issue a statement that those. federal governments have actually not adhered to their human rights. responsibilities since their 2030 targets are too weak and not in. line with science, she said.
WHAT CAN A JUDGMENT VERSUS GOVERNMENT ACHIEVE?
A judgment against the Swiss or Portuguese government would. send a clear message that governments have legal duties to. considerably increase their efforts to combat environment modification in. order to safeguard human rights, Maxwell stated.
This ought to lead to those nations revising their 2030. emissions reductions targets.
If countries do not upgrade their targets, additional lawsuits. could be carried out at the nationwide level and courts could. problem financial penalties.
Any failure of governments to comply with domestic court. orders triggers significant guideline of law problems, Maxwell said.
We rely on the compliance of federal governments with national. court orders.
HOW WILL THE RULINGS SET A LEGAL PRECEDENT?
A local human rights court has never before ruled on. environment cases, and the verdicts are likely to be game-changing.
If successful. it would be the most important thing to. happen for the climate in Europe considering that the Paris Arrangement. because it sort of has the impact of a regional European. treaty, said Ruth Delbaere, a senior legal campaigner for civic. movement Avaaz, which has assisted to raise funds to cover the. Portuguese youth's legal costs.
All 3 cases are being chosen by the court's top bench -. called the Grand Chamber - where just cases that raise severe. questions about the Convention's analysis are sent.
The cases' outcomes will for that reason serve as a blueprint for. both the Strasbourg court and national courts thinking about. comparable cases.
Gerry Liston, a senior attorney arguing the Portuguese case,. stated the most impactful outcome would be a judgment that binds. the 32 countries that are Europe's major emitters. They consist of. the European Union and neighbouring nations.
However a judgment versus even simply one nation could be applied. as precedent against all 46 signatories of the European. Convention.
A win could embolden more neighborhoods to bring similar cases. versus federal governments. Similarly, a loss for the complaintants could. deter future legal action.
6 other environment cases have been postponed by the. Strasbourg court pending Tuesday's three judgments, said Joie. Chowdhury, a senior lawyer at the Center for International. Environmental Law.
These consist of a claim versus the Norwegian federal government. that alleges it violated human rights by providing new licences. for oil and gas expedition in the Barents Sea beyond 2035.
Whatever happens today will also have impact beyond. Europe's borders, Maxwell said.
Courts in Australia, Brazil, Peru and South Korea are. considering human rights-based climate cases.
They will be taking a look at what takes place in Europe and there. will be causal sequences well outside, she said.
(source: Reuters)