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Andy Home: Chinese exports ease the pain of London zinc shorts
London's zinc market is still a hazardous place for bears. Metal that was expected to drop in price this year has risen. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) 3-month zinc reached a new four-year high of $3,858 a metric ton on Tuesday morning. The relentless rally has been accompanied by an abrupt contraction of the LME time spreads. This is particularly worrying for holders of zinc short positions. The premium for cash Metal?over a three-month delivery The price of a ton has dropped to $131, which is a significant drop from last October's record high of $323. The tightening market this year is due to the low?LME inventories that were the cause of the last year's shortage. Help is on the way for LME shorts. China has begun lifting exports and dispatching metal directly to LME Hong Kong warehouses. A Tale of Two Markets Zinc demand is not a booming industry. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, global consumption grew modestly by 1.5% from January to may. The Group assessed a global surplus of 145,000 tons of refined metals in the first five month of the year, based on a 3.5% increase in output. However, the catch is that, just like last year, the majority of the growth in refined production came from China. Western smelters are facing extreme margin pressure as a result of the decline in treatment terms. The majority of surplus metal is therefore also found in China. Since the beginning of January, the stocks registered at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has more than doubled. LME stock, including those in off-warranty storage, is still?6,500 tonnes lower at 124.677 tons, despite recent daily deliveries to LME warehouses. HONG KONG FAST TRACK Since the beginning of last week, there have been daily warranting actions as the LME premiums for cash deliveries are increasing. The volumes have been modest, totalling?17,000 ton. However, they are enough to stabilize the on-warrant stock at around 95,000 tons. The number of off-warrant stock has increased from a low in July,?15.480 tons, to 29,627 tonnes. Hong Kong holds 5,000 tonnes of off-warrant stock and has delivered around two-thirds (?around) of the LME deliveries. Hong Kong was approved by the LME for good delivery only in July last year. But it is already acting as an arbitrage conduit. China has been historically a major importer of zinc refined. As recently as 2024, volumes reached as high as 445 000 tons. The country's smelter capacity is now so large that it is close to self-sufficiency. Imports dropped by one-third to 299,000 tonnes last year. China became a net exporter both in November and December. It delivered metal to LME storage facilities in Singapore and Taiwan in order to take advantage of the London market's cash crunch. Shanghai Metal Market (SMM), a local data provider, reports that the country became a net exporter in July with shipments of 9,200 tonnes and imports continuing to fall. This time, the pace of arrivals has clearly slowed down. So far. Turning Bullish Bulls bet that even China's Smelters will need to reduce operating rates due to the bombed out treatment charges. There are many zinc bulls in town. Over 110,000 tons have been accumulated by investment funds, the largest collective bet on higher prices since LME began publishing its position reports in 2018. The LME option market also shows a renewed interest in zinc. On the LME options market, there are nearly 1,500 open lots for December calls with a strike of $4,000 per tonne and another 757 lots at $4,500 per tonne. The bull story is that of limited mine supply. Global mine production increased by 4.8% in 2013 after three years of decline. ILZSG reports that the growth has slowed to only 1.1% between January and May this year. According to SMM, the competition for mined concentrats is so fierce that spot-treatment charges for Chinese imports have now reached a new record low of minus $117.50 a ton. China's smelters continue to?fight on. According to ILZSG, growth was "significant" for the first five months in 2026. LME bulls, and more importantly, LME short position holders, will need to know just?how important'. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Gold's upward momentum pauses ahead of US inflation data
Gold fell?on Tuesday, after reaching a more than 3-month high earlier in the session. The rally lost momentum as it approached a psychologically important resistance level. This was also ahead of this week's release of the preferred inflation gauge by the U.S. Federal Reserve. By 1334 GMT (9.34 am EDT), spot gold had fallen 0.6% to $4,622.01 an ounce after reaching its highest level since the 14th of May. U.S. gold ?futures fell 0.4% at $4,678.10. "I believe this is a simple drop in momentum." Bart Melek is the global?head for commodity strategy at TD Securities. Bullion reached $4,696.18 per ounce on Monday as investors continued to analyze the recent U.S. Treasury Department decision to double its 'liquidity support buyback operation' for longer-dated bonds and notes, which drove the dollar down to a 3-month low. The markets are now focusing on Wednesday's U.S. The July Personal Consumption Expenditures report (PCE), and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, will provide further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy outlook. Fed is tracking the PCE data for its 2% target inflation, but this month's soft consumer and producer inflation numbers have reduced chances of an imminent rate hike in the U.S. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are only pricing in a 38% probability of an interest rate increase in September in the United States. In an environment of high interest rates, gold loses its appeal as it doesn't yield any interest. Data showed that China's net imports of gold via Hong Kong rose by 11% in July compared to a month earlier, mainly due to an increase in investment demand. Iran has pledged on the geopolitical side to fight against the?expanded U.S. Sanctions aimed at isolating its economy. It expressed confidence that the major?trading partner would resist this pressure campaign, and said that Washington was eager to revive the talks. Silver spot fell by 1.7%, to $67.76 an ounce. Platinum dropped 2%, to $1,837.94 and palladium fell 2.8%, to $1,319.50. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski in Bengaluru)
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Sinomine wins additional Zimbabwe Lithium export quota
Sinomine Resource Group announced that it had secured an export quota of 'another 300,000 metric tonnes of 'lithium -concentrate' from Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe, Africa’s leading producer of lithium metal for batteries, introduced export quotas on April 1st after temporarily stopping concentrate shipments from February due to alleged leakages and malpractice. It has been pressing the mining companies to process more battery metal in-country, as it aims to maximize the economic benefits from extractive industries. The country will ban exports of lithium?concentrates in January 2027. Sinomine, the company that operates the Bikita Lithium Mine in Zimbabwe, stated in a half-year?report?seen on Tuesday?that it had been granted an additional export quota for July, after receiving the first, 200,000?tons in April. The Chinese company stated that the supply of Lithium Concentrate from Bikita had returned to normal following the February to April shutdowns. It was also sufficient to meet its raw material requirements for its smelting operation in China. CHINESE FIRMS DOMINATE ZIMBABWE'S LITHIUM SECTOR Sinomine operates at Bikita two plants with a combined production capacity of 600,000 tonnes of spodumene, the main feedstock used by many lithium plants. Also, petalite, another mineral concentrate containing lithium, is produced. Sinomine reported that a recent upgrade to Bikita's technology will increase the company's annual spodumene concentration production capacity from 400,000 tons to 600,000 tons. Sinomine is building at Bikita a plant that will produce a total of?100,000.00 tons per year. It is expected to be finished by mid-2027. Lithium sulphate can be refined to become a battery grade material, such as lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate?used in the battery manufacturing process. Zhejiang Cobalt, a Chinese company, operates the sole lithium sulphate production plant in Zimbabwe, where it started Africa's very first lithium salt exports last April. Sichuan Yahua has also built a lithium-sulfate plant in its Kamativi mine, located in western Zimbabwe. Chinese firms dominate Zimbabwe's Lithium sector, after investing around $2 billion since 2021 in mining and processing facilities. This has helped the Asian giant to consolidate its grip on the global supply chain for battery metal. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Chris Takudzwa Muronzi, Nelson Banya)
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Bitcoin continues to grow despite US sanctions against Iran
Investors regained calm in the global bond and share markets on Tuesday, as they shrugged off U.S. sanctions plans against Iran. They began to prepare for Nvidia's earnings report due out Wednesday. U.S. Treasury secretary?Scott Bessent warned countries to cut financial ties with Iran on Monday or face secondary sanctions. However, the Treasury Department did not actually impose penalties. The news prompted a slight drop in oil prices as well as the benchmark government bond yields. This was also aided by the report that the U.S. Treasury may use its cash account to fund increased U.S. Debt Buybacks. Wall Street futures pointed to a higher start in New York soon, while European shares rose 0.4%. Investors took comfort from the U.S. Iran's announcement that was softer than expected. They also drove defence stocks higher on the assumption that the conflict would continue for some time. The dollar was also up against the euro, and the Japanese yen in the currency market. However, traders were more interested in the break-down of the correlation between bond yields and traditional U.S. Iran announcement. Michael Metcalfe of State Street Global Markets' global macro strategy said that the recent jump in yields as well as the?weakness of the dollar could indicate a return to a "negative bias". He said that the next couple of days will be very interesting, as the Federal Reserve is holding its annual Jackson Hole conference. Another area that has been affected by the so-called "dollar dilution" concerns is the global crypto market. Bitcoin reached $80,000 for the first since mid-May as an overnight 2% increase took its rise in the last 10 day past 30%. Gold fell 0.6%, to $4,624 an ounce. It is still at its highest level since May and has risen 15% in the last month. Germany's benchmark 10-year bond rate, which is used to determine euro zone borrowing rates, fell to 3.222%. It remains near its 15-year high reached last week of 3.275%. The French 30-year bond yields are at 4.862%, having reached an 18-year peak on Monday. NVIDIA LOOMS Large Investors were waiting with bated breath for Nvidia to announce its results on Wednesday. They know that the chipmaker, one of the firms at the heart of the AI boom, will have a hard time meeting high expectations. Analysts expect quarterly revenues to nearly double, to $92 billion. Full-year earnings are expected to range between $103 billion and $105 billion. According to Fabien YIP, a market researcher at?IG: "Judging by Nvidia's past performance, it wouldn't surprise me if they met the headline figures." I believe the people are interested in knowing if there are any concerns about the circular deals that are driving its growth, and if this growth percentage will be sustainable over the next few quarters. Wall Street futures indicate that the Nasdaq and S&P 500 will all be slightly higher after a slight pullback from mid-August, as market sentiment is shaky. Overnight, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks ended up 0.4%, while South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan’s Nikkei gained between 0.5% to 1%. China's CSI300 index of blue-chip stocks ended down 0.2%. Alibaba's $10.2bn share sale required a steep discount, which impacted the mood in China. Beijing also warned the U.S. Beijing said it would take "all necessary steps to protect its rights" and retaliate if Chinese firms were affected by the new sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran. When asked about possible sanctions against Chinese banks, U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent said: "We want make it clear today that no one can escape the reach of U.S. sanctions." sanctions." "Sanctions."
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McGeever: The world braces for the escalation of Trump's Canada Tariff Stand-off
The renewed trade spat between U.S. president Donald Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney occurs at a "delicate time" for both North American nations - and global economy. Mistakes made by the G7 neighbors could have a wide range of economic implications. After bilateral talks broke down on Friday, the?Trump Administration imposed 50% tariffs Saturday on a range of Canadian goods. These tariffs may seem modest at first glance, as they only apply to 5.5% of Canada’s exports to America - goods worth around $20 billion. Oxford Economics says that, if all else is equal, the U.S. tariff rate on Canadian exports will rise from 5.1% to 6.9%. In the end, it's a small issue. The potential for an escalation of violence and damaging spillovers is high. Canada is America's largest single trading partner, surpassing China. Total trade between the countries reached $715 billion in 2013, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Canada also bought more U.S. products and services last year than any other country. Both sides appear to have already dug in. Carney has promised dollar-fordollar retaliation and Trump announced on Monday that 50% tariffs will be imposed on Canadian vehicles, trucks, and automotive parts on January 1 if a deal cannot be reached. A prolonged spat could cause 'heavy damage to Canada's economy and even trigger a recession. The U.S. consumer and business community could also be affected by the spat, whether it is through higher prices, lost exports or increased inflation. The regional impact is the greater risk to the global economy. USMCA UNDER THREATEN Trump's battle with Canada may signal the end of America's largest trade agreement, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Mexico is America's biggest trading partner. The total value of goods traded between the two countries reached $872 billion in 2016. USMCA is the revised version 1994's North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump decided on July 1, not to renew the agreement, but it will be subject to annual reviews. Talks are still ongoing. The pact is likely to gradually wind down if the three countries cannot agree on new revisions. It will be replaced most likely by bilateral agreements. This would add more uncertainty and complexity in the future for transshipment and investment as well as product sourcing. Trump's comments on the USMCA renewal don't inspire much confidence. "I don't care. "I don't want to" is what I really mean. I'd prefer to be independent. Mexico and Canada are dependent on us. We don't require them. They are important to them. "It's not important to us," Trump said on Fox News, July 28. Trump has often backed down from his threats in the past 17 months, but the unraveling USMCA could threaten U.S. manufacturers, so he is unlikely to throw it out. The resurgence of tensions between the United States and Canada increases the probability that this will happen. It could lead to increased inflation, job losses, higher prices, longer supply chains and more investment uncertainty. Spillover Potential The spat between the U.S. and Canada could send a signal to other U.S. trading partners. Carney has come out fighting, and appears to be prepared to defend Canada’s strategic autonomy, even at the cost of increased trade friction. Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum chose the opposite path. She is willing to reduce friction with Trump, in exchange for greater access for Mexican businesses to the U.S. Other countries are watching to see if any of the approaches will work. Carney's success in rebuffing Trump's aggressive tactic could further reduce the president's already limited?tariff powers. In February, the Supreme Court struck down Trump's sweeping import tariffs. This forced the administration to use alternative legal justifications for imposing import duties. Trump's approval rating is at a record low ahead of the U.S. Midterm Elections in November, and there are no signs that the Iran War quagmire will be resolved. The president might want to make an impact on the world stage in order to show off America's global power. He may decide to call Carney's "bluff" and stick to his position, as Canada is more vulnerable. Sheinbaum may look more intelligent, but if the end result is a USMCA that has been severely weakened, everyone will lose. The latest flare-up occurs at a time when the global economy is struggling. The yields on long-dated debt are at a multi-decade-high in the developed world. Meanwhile, the U.S. - Iran war has reached its six-month mark. Energy supply routes remain choked and inflation remains uncomfortably elevated in many countries. It's not the right environment to put one of the largest and most important supply chains in danger. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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As flooding worsens, thousands of homes are submerged in China's South.
On Tuesday, widespread floods caused by Typhoon Narra intensified in?southern China. Homes and shops were flooded and thousands of people had to be relocated. Chongzuo authorities, located in China's Guangxi province, known for its giant limestone mountains and waterfalls, evacuated over 15,000 people when water levels exceeded a 2008 record. China has relocated 54,000 people from Guangxi due to rising floodwaters, according to state television. Narra, the tropical storm that landed Tuesday evening in China's southern province of Hainan, after spending several days lingering above the Beibu Gulf (also known as the Gulf of Tonkin) located on the northwestern part of the South China Sea, dumped heavy rains over Guangxi, and the neighboring provinces of Hainan, and Guangdong. State?media reported that heavy rain is expected to continue across southern China and parts of Vietnam through Wednesday. Areas of Guangxi and Guangdong will receive torrential rainfall, while Hainan, Fujian, and Hainan are also forecast to experience it. Chongzuo was flooded by river water, which reached the roofs of buildings and power lines. Chongzuo authorities issued a notice on Monday ordering all tourist and business operations to stop and asking evacuated residents to avoid high-risk zones. TYPHOON SAUDEL APPROACHES JAPAN AND TAIWAN While a separate weather system in Taiwan's south and east caused one death and four missing, the medium-strength typhoon Saudel was moving towards southern Japan. The Japanese weather agency warned that Typhoon Saudel would bring strong winds, high seas and destructive gusts to the southwest islands of Okinawa Prefecture as it approached. The Central Weather Administration of Taiwan said that Saudel will pass northwards and begin to dump water in the island's north on Friday. Its intensity is expected to gradually decrease and its storm force wind?radius shrink. It added that there was uncertainty regarding the timing and the extent of the typhoon’s rain impact. The government of southern and eastern Taiwan reported one death and four people missing due to a tropical storm that caused flooding in the cities of Tainan, which has more than 4,000,000 residents, and Kaohsiung. In the three days between Sunday and Tuesday, Kaohsiung received almost a metre of rain, which is more than the rainfall that fell during the devastating Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which killed about 700 people and damaged up to $3 billion. From late Thursday into early Friday, Saudel will hit the coast of the province of Fujian in the southeast Chinese region.
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Gold falls on profit-taking following rally to more than three-month high
Gold slowed on Tuesday, after hitting a high of more than three months earlier in the session. Profit-taking and an 'advanced dollar' tempered gains as investors awaited U.S. data on inflation and comments from Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh. After reaching its highest level since the 14th of May, spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,640.40 an ounce at 1128 GMT. U.S. futures for gold were unchanged at $4,696.10. Gold's movement today is due to profit-taking, as the dollar has recovered some of the losses from last week that were caused by the buyback announcement," Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen explained. He was referring to U.S. Treasury Department decision to double liquidity support buybacks for longer-dated bonds and notes. Hansen continued, "The reasons investors are falling in love with gold again are not going away. They will continue to be supported in the upcoming months." The dollar gained some strength Tuesday after?falling down to a lower level than the previous three months following the announcement of the Treasury buyback. This was due to the resurgence of the debasement market, which made greenback-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers. The markets are now watching the U.S. The Personal Consumption expenditure inflation report, which will be released on Wednesday, and the inaugural speech of the Fed's Warsh during the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday are both important indicators to gauge the Fed’s monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 40% probability of a U.S. rate hike in September and a 60% likelihood that?the Fed?will leave rates unchanged. Bullion is less attractive to investors in a high-interest rate environment, as it doesn't yield any interest. According to the World Gold Council, ETFs backed by gold attracted a?inflow of 46.7 tons ($6.4 billion), the highest weekly demand for 10 months. Geopolitically, Iran has vowed to respond to the U.S. sanctions that they claim will cut off Iran's lifeline. Spot silver dropped by 1.3%, to $68.03 an ounce. Platinum fell by 1.4%, to $1,849.18. Palladium was down at $1,327.50.
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Copper prices fall on stronger dollar and uncertainty about U.S. rates
Copper prices fell on Tuesday due to a stronger dollar and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. rates of interest. Benchmark three-month?copper?on the London Metal Exchange?was down 0.2% to $14,245.50 per metric ton at 0915 GMT after adding 0.4% during the previous session. EwaManthey, commodities analyst at ING, said that the recent drop in copper is more of a cooling down from an extreme situation than a deterioration of 'fundamentals. Investors are awaiting new policy signals from the U.S., but the LME inventory levels have reduced the current tightness. Stocks in warehouses are not registered with the LME Stocks have recovered by 17% since mid-August after falling by nearly 50% over the past 2-1/2 months. The squeeze on inventories sent the premium for cash LME copper over three-month contracts The price of a ton peaked at $545 on August 17 but has since fallen to $71. A firmer dollar index also slowed the appetite for base metals, as it made commodities priced in U.S. dollars more expensive to buyers of other currencies. Concerns about tariffs and the apparent impasse of talks to end Middle East conflict have also led to fears that U.S. rates will remain high for longer. By dampening the economy, higher interest rates can affect growth-dependent materials like copper, which is used for power and construction. The most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.2% to 107.980 yuan (16,060.80 dollars) per ton. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by?0.8%, to $3.203 per ton. Zinc remained unchanged at $3.836, while lead slipped 0.2% to $1.907.50, nickel dropped 0.9% to $16,870, and tin declined 0.1% to $55,675.
State health department reports two deaths from measles, in Pennsylvania
Health officials announced on Tuesday that two Pennsylvania residents had died from measles. This is the first death in the state in 35 years. 393 cases have been reported in 28 counties in 2026.
According to the Pennsylvania Department of Health (Pennsylvania Department of Health), both people were unvaccinated residents of Lancaster County. The department did not release any additional information, citing concerns about privacy.
Debra Bogen, Secretary of Health said: "Because the measles was largely eradicated in the Commonwealth for over three decades, the public is not familiar with the disease and does not fully understand its potential severity."
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 2,777 confirmed cases of measles in the United States as of August 20, 2018.
The '2026 figures' represent the most U.S. cases ever recorded in one year, since the resurgence between 1989 and 1990. This period saw more than 55,000 infections with 123 deaths.
The Department of Health and Human Services in the United States did not respond immediately to a comment request.
(source: Reuters)