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As oil prices plummet, Asian shares and bonds are on the rise
As a result of the pause in fighting that occurred in the Gulf, oil prices fell. This lowered inflation risks as well as helped boost bonds before a week packed with central bank meetings and reports on earnings. Iran announced on Sunday that it would cease its attacks as long as the United States followed suit. The U.S. Military was reportedly worried about the dwindling supply of ammunition. Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, have still continued to attack Saudi oil installations on the Red Sea Coast, a threat to another vital waterway for the global oil trade. Sally Auld is the group chief economist of NAB. She said, "Net, it appears that developments in the Middle East moved in a more positive direction this weekend. This lends some credence to the idea that oil prices above $100 per barrel seem to encourage de-escalation from both sides." Brent crude fell 4.7% to $92.27 per barrel during the lull of fighting in the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. Crude dropped 5.0% to $84.99. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates in the near future, but markets have reduced their expectations. Markets indicate that the central bank will meet on Wednesday, and that there is a 1 in 3 chance of an increase in interest rates. However, most analysts do not believe Chair Kevin Warsh to be supportive of such a move. Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that investors see the outcome of the July meetings as "unusual uncertain" because of recent divisions within the Fed, Warsh's position is unclear and some re-escalation of tensions with Iran took place during the blackout. "There is likely to be at least one dissenter in favor of a hike this week, but the majority of voters seem unlikely to push for an action after the June inflation data that was softer." Bank of England meets on Thursday and Bank of Japan, on Friday. Both are expected to remain cautious and hold their ground while keeping an eye on inflation. Earnings from TECH BULLS S&P futures rose 0.8% and Nasdaq futures increased 1.3% as equities found comfort in the decline in oil prices and yields. In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures gained 0.8% while DAX Futures rose 0.9%, and FTSE Futures added 0.2%. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan grew by 0.2% while the South Korean chip-heavy index grew by 0.2%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan increased by 0.5%. Chinese blue-chip stocks gained 0.3% after chipmaker CXMT Corporation surged 500% on its Shanghai debut, having raised $8.6 billion through Asia's largest initial public offering of this year. According to LSEG data, about?one third of S&P500 companies will report earnings this week. Earnings are expected to increase by 26.5% compared to last year. Even blockbuster results might not be enough to satisfy investors, given the high expectations and the mounting concern over AI capex. A Wall Street Journal article reported that Nvidia had been in talks with OpenAI to provide a $250 billion backstop as part of a project for a data centre. The companies reporting include Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Apple, Qualcomm and a number of industrial, defence, and healthcare stocks. The U.S. Q2 GDP is a highlight, with growth increasing to an annualised 1.5% following a soft start of the year. The diary includes the June PCE Price Index, Personal Income and Consumption, Weekly Jobless Claims, Q2?employment cost index, and July Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The Eurozone's schedule includes the flash Q2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product), July economic sentiment (consumer confidence), flash inflation (inflation in a flash) and June unemployment. The dollar fell by a wide margin as the 10-year Treasury yields dropped 4 basis points to 4.63%. The?euro rose 0.3% to $1.1408 while the dollar fell 0.2% against the yen, to?163.54. The Singapore dollar grew after the central bank of the country unexpectedly tightened its monetary policy, allowing the currency to appreciate at a faster rate. The Indonesian rupiah fell after the country’s central bank governor announced his resignation. Analysts said that the move could cause investors to be concerned about the independence of the central bank and the fiscal management of the country. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to climb by 1.3%, reaching $4,103 per ounce.
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Fortescue Chair calls for fair negotiation with China
Andrew Forrest, founder of Fortescue, called on China and Australia to "always bargain fairly" at an event in Perth on Monday. The world's 4th-largest producer of iron ore is negotiating a yearly supply agreement with its largest customer. China Mineral Resources Group, the state-owned iron ore buyer in China, has been increasingly resistant to global iron ore miner's annual supply negotiations over the last year. China is seeking better terms for its steelmakers. CMRG has taken measures to prevent China's massive network of?steelmills from purchasing certain iron ore from mines while negotiations are ongoing. "Bilateral Trade has supported Australian businesses, public services and jobs. It also provided China with a reliable and secure supply of iron ore that drove its extraordinary industrial growth." Forrest, Fortescue's Executive Chair, said at the Boao Forum Perth. Australia produces 53 percent of the global iron ore supply. The company expects that iron ore exports will fall to A$108.57 billion ($75.57billion) in 2026-2027 from A$117.57billion last year, as global supply increases. He said that the "shining light of partnership" would encourage Australia, China and Gabon to "grow as a team". Fortescue has built more iron ore operations in Gabon. "Let's always negotiate fairly... True partnerships are built upon a partnership for the future." CMRG notified 'China's domestic Steel Mills' in 'early July' that they would not be able to take Fortescue Super Special Fines products held at ports after July '15.
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Gold prices rise on US-Iran truce; Fed decision is imminent
Gold prices rose on Monday, as investors waited to see what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do about its policy later this week. By 0421 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4.087.79 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.5% to $4089.90. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst of?KCM Trade. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, making metals priced in greenbacks more affordable to other currency holders. Iran will halt its attacks if the United States also does so, a senior Iranian government official said on Sunday. After President Donald Trump's advisors informed him that they were running out targets and worried about depleting U.S. weapons, the United States put a halt to its bombing campaign. The oil price was down by more than 4% for the day. Oil prices have risen since the beginning of this conflict, causing inflation fears and central bank rate increases. Gold, despite being traditionally considered as an inflation hedge is becoming less appealing as rising interest rates increase the opportunity costs of holding non-yielding gold. "Longer-term, I remain constructively bullish about gold." Waterer stated that the fate of gold is directly tied to where oil prices are headed. The path upwards is likely to be volatile and heavily influenced geopolitically until a more durable peace is achieved. Market participants expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its meeting on July 28 and 29. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 76% probability of a September?hike. Silver spot rose by 1.7%, to $59.16 an ounce. Platinum rose by 1.5%, to $1.612,04, and palladium climbed 1.6%, to $1.263.73. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Ashitha Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Markets are hopeful as US and Iran hold off on war.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The Gulf has settled into a fragile truce as the U.S. military halted its attacks in part due to concerns that it was running low on ammunition. Iran also said that it would hold off until the U.S. Hold off. Investors have viewed the Houthis' attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities as a de-escalation step and have pushed Brent down 4%, to $92.80. The $100 mark seems to be where the U.S. blinks. Oil needs to remain close to this level to keep both sides talking. The Nasdaq Futures are up 1%, but Asian stocks are easing?in case this week's flurry of tech earnings stokes concerns about the massive amount of capex being spent on AI. A Wall Street Journal article reported that Nvidia had been in discussions to provide an estimated $250 billion as part of a project for a data center. This week, companies reporting include Microsoft, Meta Platforms (Amazon), Apple, Qualcomm and a number of industrial, defense and healthcare stocks. This week, about a third of S&P500 companies will report their earnings. Earnings are expected to increase by 26.5% compared to last year. However, even this may not satisfy the sky-high expectations. CXMT Corp. shares have surged by 500% since their Shanghai debut, after the company raised 8.6 billion dollars in Asia's largest initial public offering of this year. Oil's retreat helped bond prices rally following a difficult run last week. Fed funds futures, meanwhile, have removed 2 to 3 basis points from the curve. Markets still have a 'one in three chance' that the Federal Reserve will hike this week. Most analysts believe that Chair Kevin Warsh does not want to tighten, but it is possible for there to be one or two dissenters in favor of an immediate increase. Both the Bank of Japan and Bank of England will meet on Thursday. They are both expected to remain cautious and steady, while still assessing inflation risks. Singapore's central banks balance of risk was illustrated on Monday when it surprised the world by tightening its own monetary policy by allowing its currency to appreciate a little faster. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact German Ifo Business Sentiment for July - U.S. durables for June
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The oil price decline and de-escalation in the Middle East have led to a rise in copper prices.
Prices of copper rose on Monday as a result of a tentative?halt to fighting between the U.S.A. and Iran, and relief in the oil market. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange gained 0.26% to $13,681 per metric ton at 0300 GMT. The most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.27% to 105,010 Yuan ($15.515.43) per metric ton. After 13 nights of airstrikes, the U.S. announced that it was stopping its attacks on Iran. Tehran also said that it would cease its retaliatory strikes. Oil prices were able to recover a little from the?tentative ceasefire. Brent crude dropped more than 4% on Monday. Last week, it had reached $100 per barrel for the very first time. Energy costs are high, and this can cause people to bet on higher interest rates. This could have a negative impact on commodities like copper that depend on economic growth. Market participants will closely monitor the U.S. Federal Reserve's?meeting on Wednesday for their interest rate decision. According to CME's FedWatch, interest-rate traders have priced in a 63.7% probability that there won't be a rate change during this meeting. Dollar index fell, while gold prices rose. The?dollar is cheaper, making commodities such as copper that are traded in greenbacks more affordable to buyers who use other currencies. The?stocks of copper outside the U.S. are dwindling. The metal was shipped in large quantities ahead of potential tariffs on refined Copper. Copper in SHFE-monitored storages in China's top consumer, China Overall LME copper stocks fell 12.9% to their lowest level since Feb 2024 at 69.610?tons. Overall LME Copper Stocks The lowest level since March. Aluminium slid 0.11% among other LME metals. Zinc climbed 0.31%. Lead dipped by 0.16%. Nickel lost 0.63%. Tin grew 0.78%. Other metals on SHFE also slid 0.15%. Zinc gained 0.32%. Lead lost 1.17%. Nickel lost 0.39%. Tin rose 1.76%. $1 = 6.7681 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar).
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Seattle shooting leaves two dead and five injured, according reports
Local news reports said that at least two people were killed and five others, including an?2-year old child, 'were injured' in a shooting on Sunday, which took place during a food festival in downtown Seattle. The police said that multiple people were shot in the United States. On Sunday evening, the downtown area of the city was a scene of violence. Seattle police posted on social media X that "Please avoid the Area" in reference to the?Seattle Center where the Bite of Seattle festival was taking place. Police are investigating an incident. Multiple shooting victims. Seattle Center shot at by gunfire. Seattle Fire Department, Seattle Times and KOMO local TV reported that two people had been killed and five others?injured. The Seattle Times reported that witnesses heard several shots around 6 p.m. (0100 GMT).
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Bankers claim that India's UltraTech Cement is planning to raise its largest rupee debt financing.
Two bankers familiar with the matter said on Monday that India's UltraTech Cement was in discussions?with merchant banks and arrangers about raising?its largest rupee bond funding. It is looking to tap the debt markets before the central bank makes its policy decision next Thursday. Sources who requested anonymity because the talks were still private said that the country's biggest cement producer by production capacity planned to raise 50 billion rupees (517.80 million dollars) in bonds with maturities of two-and a half years, three and a half years, and five years. The target is?15 billion each for the two shorter tranches, with annual coupons of 7.22% and 7.23% respectively, as well as 20 billion rupees on the five-year tranche, at 7.25%. Bankers stated that UltraTech wanted to close the deal before the Reserve Bank of India made its monetary policy announcement on August 5, The company didn't respond to an email asking for a comment after regular business hours. Bankers said that the bonds were rated AAA by Crisil, and they may be in demand from mutual fund managers looking for high-quality credits. UltraTech will raise 10 billion rupees in March 2025 through bonds with a coupon of 7.34 percent per year. The country has outstanding bonds worth 35 billion rupees, of which 5 billion rupees are due in the next month. Cement maker reported nearly 17% increase in first-quarter profits earlier this month. It used its'scale and market position' to absorb higher fuel costs related to the Middle East Conflict better than smaller competitors.
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As oil prices fall, the Australian and New Zealand dollar rates are rising.
The Australian and New Zealand dollar strengthened on Monday, as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict sent oil price?lower. This eased inflation concerns and helped boost global bond markets. The Aussie gained 0.2%, to $0.7001, following a 0.3% gain on Friday. It is little changed from last week. The Aussie has moved away from its three-month-low of $0.6867. Resistance is seen at the one month peak of $0.7026. New Zealand's dollar rose 0.2%, to $0.5798, after finishing last week down by 1%. This was primarily due to losses against the Australian dollar. The 200-day moving median of $0.5822 is seen as a resistance. The Aussie rose 0.1% to NZ$1.2068 against the Kiwi after gaining 1% in one week. The gains were supported by a stronger-than-expected ?jobs report that led markets to almost fully price in a fourth interest-rate increase from the Reserve Bank of Australia this year. Investors will be focusing on the quarterly inflation data due Wednesday. Economists expect that the trimmed measure of core inflation will rise by 0.9% in the second quarter and bring the annual rate up to 3.7%. This would still be above the RBA target range of 2%-3%, but lower than the central bank's expected 3.8%. Paul Bloxham is the chief economist of HSBC. He said that if core inflation does not surprise in a significant way this week, then RBA will be able hold steady. "However inflation is still high and the job market is likely to still be considered 'a bit tight' despite loosening. The board may still decide that tightening of the monetary policy is necessary. The markets have lowered the likelihood of a RBA rate increase next month from 40% to 30%, while a November hike remains "around 80%" priced in. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will speak on Tuesday, and she could adopt a hawkish tone in light of the recent 'escalation' of the Gulf Conflict. Australian government bonds recovered from heavy losses last weekend. After a surge of 23 basis points, the yield on three-year bonds fell by 9 basis points, to 4.635%. The yield on 10-year bonds dropped by 7 basis points, to 5.015%. New Zealand's key two-year swap rate fell 6 bps, to 3.7219% after a 20 bps jump last week. Markets now expect 3.0% in December and 3.5% at the beginning of next year.
Seattle Shooting suspect arrested, local media reports two dead and five injured
Local news reports said that at least 'two' people, including a two-year-old child, were killed in a shooting on Sunday, and that a suspect was taken into custody by the mayor's office of Seattle, U.S.A. On Sunday evening, police urged the public to stay away from the area at the base of the Space Needle as they investigated the shooting.
"Multiple shooting victims. The department reported on X that shots were fired "at the Seattle Center". The Seattle Times, citing Seattle Fire Department reports, and the local TV station KOMO reported the death toll and injuries. The Times reported that witnesses told them they heard several shots at around 6 pm local time (0100 GMT). Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson issued a statement in which she described the incident as an "act of horrific violence". She added that a suspect was taken into custody. "Impact families are living the worst moments of their lives and an entire community is trying to understand how a gathering built on culture, connection and joy ended with gunfire."
(source: Reuters)