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'Information driven' gamers assist lengthen record revenues in product trading, states McKinsey

The growing number of datadriven players such as hedge funds in the world of product trading has actually helped sustain record levels of revenue, even as the volatility that supercharged profits in 2022 has eased off, according to a McKinsey analysis.

Trading companies consisting of Trafigura, Vitol, Gunvor and Mercuria have actually prospered in the severe market relocations that have defined the last few years, from the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe's energy crisis of 2021-2022 and sweeping Western sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Regardless of the continuing war in Ukraine and the rise of geopolitical stress in the Middle East by 2023, that sharp volatility across energy products has slowly reduced.

For example, Vitol - the world's largest independent oil trader and a significant gamer in the melted gas and power markets - reported a drop of more than 20% in 2023 earnings to $ 400 billion.

Still, the McKinsey analysis estimated the sector cumulatively generated about $104 billion in profits before interest and tax (EBIT) in 2015, compared to the $99 billion generated in 2022 and well ahead of the $52 billion in 2021.

This increase, despite the fall in rates of essential products such as oil and gas, was down to increasing returns from power trading activities along with more recent entrants in product trading who have increasingly welcomed technologies like AI, the report suggested.

These so-called 'data-driven' players, consisting of banks and tech-focused traders, have actually seen their profits rise year by year, particularly when it comes to power and gas.

According to McKinsey, the EBIT of about 87% of such data-driven trading business in Europe exceeded 100 million euros ($ 108 million) in 2022, while almost 30% earned more than 1 billion euros. All the gamers were earning less than 100 million euros before 2019.

Commodity houses may be reticent to adopt AI as quickly as banks or hedge funds have, in part due to the lots of restrictions, such as container temperature levels, that physical commodities deal with.

Trading houses, which currently manage big parts of international oil, gas and power markets, have actually discovered it tough to grow, while poor returns recently on wind, solar and hydrogen properties have annoyed some investors.

Players that accept new technologies like AI, stated McKinsey, are likely to capture additional value.

(source: Reuters)