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U.S. gas glut gets hedge funds extremely bearish: Kemp

Portfolio investors have become very bearish about the outlook for U.S. gas costs, despite the fact that costs have actually already fallen to their lowest level in real terms given that futures started selling 1990.

Hedge funds and other money managers offered the equivalent of 399 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the 2 major futures and alternatives agreements connected to prices at Henry Center in Louisiana over the 7 days ending on Feb. 20.

Fund supervisors have been net sellers in each of the most current five weeks, selling 2,085 bcf since Jan. 16, according to position reports filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

As an outcome, the combined position has actually been lowered to a net short of 1,675 bcf (3rd percentile for all weeks because 2010). below a net long of 410 bcf (42nd percentile) in the middle. of January.

The gas market has actually been chronically oversupplied in recent. months, with stocks 436 bcf (+21% or +1.26 standard. variances) above the prior 10-year seasonal average on Feb. 16.

The surplus has swelled regularly considering that the start of the. winter season heating season on Oct. 1, when it was simply 64 bcf (+2% or. +0.24 standard discrepancies).

Chartbook: Gas and oil positions

Incredibly strong El Niño conditions over the Pacific. ensured temperatures have been mostly above typical throughout the. significant population centres of the northern United States.

Domestic gas production has continued to increase, in spite. of the relatively low rates, contributing to the growing surplus. of gas in storage.

The rig count for gas has actually increased partially. given that September 2023 as producers have actually been unresponsive to. falling costs till the last few weeks.

In addition, more associated gas is being produced as a. co-product of drilling for oil, where rates are close to the. long-term inflation-adjusted average and drilling rates are. steady.

From a purely placing perspective, the balance of risks. need to lie to the advantage, with real costs at multi-decade lows. and great deals of short positions that need to eventually be bought.

Short positions have only ever been higher in the first. quarter of 2020, when stocks were at record levels and the. economy was bracing for the arrival of the very first wave of the. coronavirus epidemic.

There is potential for a huge short-covering rally if and. when the news flow becomes more favorable and inventories begin. to wear down.

But hedge fund managers have attempted and failed to identify. the turning point 3 times in the last twelve months and been. required to pull away each time.

Puffed up gas stocks in Europe and Japan after the cost spike. of 2021/22 will make it hard for the market to rebalance through. increased exports.

Numerous analysts now anticipate the rebalancing to be postponed. until the winter season of 2024/25 with rates likely to stay. suppressed until nearer then.

PETROLEUM

Investors continued to add to their position in. petroleum-related futures and options over the 7 days ending. on Feb. 16, but at a slower rate than in previous weeks.

Hedge funds and other money supervisors bought the. equivalent of 17 million barrels in the 6 crucial. petroleum-linked futures and alternatives agreements.

All the purchasing was focused in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+29. million barrels) with little sales in Brent (-4 million),. European gas oil (-4 million), U.S. diesel (-4 million) and U.S. gas (-1 million).

Even after the current purchasing, positions in WTI remain the. most bearish of any of the major oil contracts, weighed down by. the ongoing increase in domestic oil production, even as OPEC. restricts Middle East supplies.

The net position in NYMEX and ICE WTI of 109 million barrels. is still in just the 8th percentile for all weeks given that 2013.

That compares with net positions in Brent, fuel and the. distillates agreements all between the 70th and 60th percentiles.

WTI purchasing appears to have actually been motivated by unwinding. previous bearish short positions (-17 million barrels) and. careful initiation of brand-new longs (+13 million).

Unrefined stocks around the NYMEX WTI shipment point at. Cushing in Oklahoma are still 14 million barrels (-32% or -1.14. basic variances) below the prior 10-year seasonal average. In spite of an extended shutdown of BP's refinery at Whiting in. Indiana, Cushing stocks have actually increased just a little in the last. 2 weeks, highlighting the danger of a squeeze on deliverable. materials.

With positioning so bearish, the balance of threats lies to. the advantage; some fund managers have actually started to interrupt positions. and get long accordingly.

Related columns:

- Slumping U.S. gas rates trigger hedge funds to. anguish( February 19, 2024)

- El Niño presses genuine U.S. gas prices to multi-decade low. ( February 16, 2024)

- Investors dispose oil after U.S. refinery shutdown (February. 12, 2024)

- Oil financiers attempt to get bullish as global economy. improves (February 5, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)