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Report: Gas Investments in Australia Stalling
Australia is losing its competitive edge in attracting investment in natural gas exploration and production, threatening the nation’s energy security, economic growth and emissions reduction targets, a new report by Wood Mackenzie has found.The ‘Australia’s Natural Gas Investment Competitiveness’ report found that while global investment in gas exploration has grown by nearly 30% in the past five years, investment in Australia is lagging with just 15% growth recorded over the same period. The analysis included a CEO sentiment survey of Australian gas producers. 95% of those surveyed believe Australia is a less attractive place to invest today, compared with five years ago. More than 95% of those surveyed reported direct investment impacts from changing government policy and regulatory settings, and one in five affected projects were either cancelled or relocated offshore.Australia is now attracting only a 15% share of the investment portfolio of major international oil companies, down from 40% just over a decade ago.Australian Energy Producers Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said the findings underscored the importance of competitive and stable policy settings for Australia to attract future investment in gas exploration and development.“The new political landscape presents opportunities for industry to work with the Government and Opposition on bipartisan and enduring policy reforms for Australia’s long-term energy security and economic growth,” McCulloch said.“The report highlights Australia’s abundant natural gas resources and access to global markets makes it ideally placed to attract significant new investment and remain a global energy powerhouse. “Key to realizing this opportunity and restoring investor confidence will be addressing approval uncertainty and delays, supporting critical energy infrastructure, and recognizing the vital role of gas in the energy transition.”Wood Mackenzie also highlight the huge growth opportunity on Australia’s doorstep. Global LNG demand is forecast to rise 58% by 2050, with the Asia Pacific region accounting for three quarters of total LNG demand by the middle of the century. But investment in Australia’s LNG capacity is only a quarter of that in the rest of the world. Wood Mackenzie found: “Whilst Australia led the mid-2010s wave of LNG projects, a subsequent emerging wave is being led by the United States and Qatar, with Australia no longer featuring significantly.”“Australia now trails peer nations such as the United States, Canada, Qatar, Norway and countries in South-East Asia and Africa in key investment areas including exploration and LNG capacity,” McCulloch said. Australia will also face fierce competition for future carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) investment unless supportive policy frameworks and regulatory certainty are established.“Energy and climate policy must go hand-in-hand with economic policy. Without a stable policy and regulatory environment, Australia risks losing its energy edge and missing out on the next wave of global investment,” McCulloch said.
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Iron ore declines due to tepid China demand and higher shipments
The price of iron ore futures fell for the fourth session in a row on Wednesday. This was due to a combination of a lower demand for this steelmaking ingredient from China, the world's largest consumer, and increased shipments by Australia and Brazil, two major producers. By 0300 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.21% lower. It was 698 yuan (US$96.94) per metric ton. The benchmark June Iron Ore traded on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.18% to $95.9 per ton. Mark Ferguson, Director of Metals and Mining Research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told a conference in Singapore on Wednesday that China's crude output is expected to drop to 968 millions metric tons in 2025, down 37million tons from 2024. Lange Steel, citing data from the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, said that daily crude steel production at key steel companies in May decreased by 0.3% on a month-to-month basis to 2.2 millions tons. Data from Mysteel revealed that the total volume of iron-ore shipped from Australia and Brazil increased by 0.9% week-on-week as of 25 May, reaching 27.3 million tonnes. Mysteel attributes the increase to increased ore shipments by Australia. They increased their shipments to China from 10.4% to 17.4 millions tons week-on-week. The Brazilian government also dampened sentiment by renewing 25% tariffs, which were originally imposed on 19 steel products last year. Official data released on Tuesday showed that China's industrial profit increased in April. This gives policymakers reason to be optimistic, as recent stimulus measures are helping keep the economy afloat, despite the trade tensions between the United States and China. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell by 0.99% and 0.75%, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 1%, while hot-rolled steel coils lost 0.74%. Stainless steel also slipped 0.82%.
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France's Macron and Indonesia's Prabowo discuss defense ties
The French president Emmanuel Macron and his Indonesian counterpart Prabowo Subito will meet in Jakarta on Tuesday, with a focus on strengthening defence ties between Paris and its largest arms client in Southeast Asia. Indonesia is the second stop on Macron's regional tour after Vietnam where both countries signed deals valued at over $10 billion. He will fly to Singapore Thursday. Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin welcomed Macron to Indonesia on Tuesday evening. He said that the two countries will sign a letter of intent on defence and work together on "strategic weapons hardware". He cited fighter jets, submarines, and other military hardware. The Foreign Ministry had said earlier that the two sides will discuss "existing partnerships" but did not give specifics about the topics of discussion. In 2022 the two countries will sign an $8.1 billion deal in defence that includes an order for 42 Rafale jet fighters manufactured by France's Dassault aviation, as well a number of agreements, including sub-development and ammunition. "Some commitments require follow-up and Indonesia showed interest in other military hardware but there have been no advances yet," said Khairul FAHMI, a military specialist at the Institute for Security and Strategic Studies, an Indonesian-based institute. Rafale jets are not yet delivered to Indonesia. In February, Mohamad Tonny Harjono, the chief of Indonesian Air Force Mohamad Tonny Harjono stated that six jets will arrive in Indonesia by early 2026. In addition to the Rafale agreement, Indonesia has also announced that it will buy 13 Thales long-range air-surveillance radars in 2023 and two "Scorpene' submarines in 2024 from France. Prabowo was Minister of Defence when these deals signed. Paulo Castellari, the new CEO of Eramet, is part of Macron's delegation to Indonesia's mineral-rich Indonesia. Eramet Chairwoman Christel Bories said that they would be looking to discuss mining permissions in relation to Weda Bay Nickel Mine. Indonesia has the largest known nickel reserves and is the world’s leading producer. Eramet, among other companies, has complained about the reduction of volume allowances. Eramet is still interested in nickel processing, despite having dropped a plan last year to build a BASF plant. (Reporting and writing by Ananda Teresia in Jakarta and Stanley Widanto, in Paris. Editing and proofreading by John Mair.
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Gold prices rise as investors purchase gold on dips, and look to US economic data for clues
The gold price rose on Wednesday as investors bought at the bottom. However, gains were capped due to easing U.S. - EU trade tensions. Now, the market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Report for clues on interest rates. As of 0237 GMT spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,308.99 per ounce. This was a slight recovery from the 1% drop in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.2% to $3.308.00. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has backed off his threat to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union. He will now delay its implementation until the 9th of July, in order to allow time for negotiations between White House officials and the 27-nation group. Gold's drop below $3300 attracted some buyers. The broader market, however, is still generally optimistic now that US-EU tensions have eased. This is capping gold's upward run for the moment," said Tim Waterer. If support continues to hold in the $3.250-$3,280 range, gold could make another move towards $3.400, if risk appetite declines. Market participants are now awaiting the U.S. PCE for April data, which is due on Friday, in order to determine if Federal Reserve will be reducing interest rates. Data show that U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded in may, ending a five month slide. This was aided by a temporary truce between the U.S. and China trade war. Since December, the Fed's policy rate has remained unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% as officials wait for more clarity about the economic and pricing impact of Trump’s tariffs. "More definitive moves in gold may need to be delayed until we have a better read on Nvidia's results and U.S. Waterer stated that Core PCE will be released on Friday. Spot silver remained at $33.31 per ounce. Platinum was up 0.4% to $1,084.07, and palladium was down 0.2% at $976.22.
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Copper prices rise as risk appetite increases after tariff relief
The copper price in London was stable on Wednesday. This was due to an improved risk appetite in the financial markets after President Donald Trump’s latest tariff relief. However, a strong dollar held gains in check. The London Metal Exchange's three-month copper price remained at $9,593.5 a metric ton as of 0214 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most-traded contract for copper edged up 0.1% to 78.390 yuan per ton ($10,886.29). Copper prices have traded in line with the overall sentiment on the global stock exchange in the past two weeks. The US stock market has been lifted by trade optimism, and this has had a ripple effect on copper prices, said Kelvin Woong, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, OANDA. Trump reversed his decision to impose tariffs of 50% on EU imports next month. He restored the deadline of July 9 to allow time for negotiations. The risk-taking sentiment on the financial markets was boosted. Tuesday, data showed that U.S. consumers' confidence improved in May after five months of declines. This was due to a truce between Washington and Beijing in their trade war. The dollar index also added to the overnight gains. This made dollar-denominated investments more expensive for holders of other currencies. In its latest monthly bulletin, the International Copper Study Group reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 17,000 metric tonnes in March compared to a surplus of 180,000 metric tonnes in February. Other London metals include aluminium, which fell 0.3% at $2,478.50 per ton. Zinc also fell 0.1% to $2703, while lead declined 0.3% to 1,979.5, and nickel fell 0.3% at $15,370. Tin rose 0.1% to $22,630. The SHFE aluminium price rose by 0.5%, to 20,165 Chinese yuan per ton. Lead was down by 0.2%, at 16,765 Yuan. Nickel was 0.4% lower at 121,870 Yuan. Zinc was unchanged at 22,415 Yuan. Tin fell 0.3%, to 264440 Yuan. ($1 = 7.2008 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jacobi-Phillips in Bengaluru)
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Asian shares and the U.S. Dollar climb on positive data, technology optimism
The dollar gained on Wednesday, as the United States economy showed promising signs and speculation about strong tech earnings. The markets welcomed the apparent easing of trade frictions between Europe and the U.S., while global bond market settled after an alarming surge in long term yields. The U.S. consumer sentiment surprised to the upside before Thursday's closely watched employment figures. Nvidia's shares jumped by more than 4% on Tuesday and it will be the final of the Magnificent Seven tech giants in the U.S. to announce earnings after the close of U.S. markets. Chris Weston is the head of Pepperstone's research and said that there was renewed confidence in Nvidia to beat consensus estimates. He said that if Nvidia delivers better than expected sales and profit margins, "the rally will be on." According to LSEG, the chipmaker will report that its first-quarter revenues grew by 66.2% and reached $43,28 billion. According to two sources with knowledge of the situation, European Union officials are asking companies about their U.S. investments plans. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.3% during morning trading, while Japan's Nikkei gained 0.6% for a fourth consecutive session. The dollar index (which tracks the greenback versus a basket currencies) rose by 0.1% on Tuesday, adding to the 0.6% gain of that day. The dollar rose 0.1% against the euro to $1.132. Australian shares rose 0.17% but the currency fell 0.2% as April consumer prices data exceeded expectations. The kiwi currency fell 0.3% as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced rates, as expected. Japanese bonds fell, trimming an increase yesterday, in advance of a bid for 40-year-old securities and amid speculation that the Ministry of Finance would reduce the issue of long-dated instruments. Early trading saw oil prices rise as the U.S. banned Chevron CVX.N's export of crude from Venezuela due to a new authorization for its assets in Venezuela, raising the possibility of a tighter supply. Brent crude futures increased 0.4% to $64.37 per barrel while U.S. spot gold rose 0.1% following a drop of more than 1% Tuesday.
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France's Macron and Indonesia's Prabowo discuss strategic partnerships
On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron and his Indonesian counterpart Prabowo Subito will meet in Jakarta to discuss defence ties. This is Paris' largest arms client in Southeast Asia. Indonesia is the second stop on Macron's regional tour after Vietnam where both countries signed deals valued at over $10 billion. He will fly to Singapore Thursday. The Indonesian foreign ministry stated that the two countries would discuss "existing partnerships" without providing specifics about the topics of discussion. In 2022 the two countries will sign an $8.1 billion deal in defence that includes an order for 42 Rafale jet fighters manufactured by France's Dassault aviation, as well a number of agreements, including sub-development and ammunition. "Some commitments require follow-up and Indonesia showed interest in other military hardware but there have been no advances yet," said Khairul FAHMI, a military specialist at the Institute for Security and Strategic Studies, an Indonesian-based institute. Rafale jets are not yet delivered to Indonesia. In February, Mohamad Tonny Harjono, the chief of Indonesian Air Force Mohamad Tonny Harjono stated that six jets will arrive in Indonesia by early 2026. In addition to the Rafale agreement, Indonesia has also announced that it will buy 13 Thales long-range air-surveillance radars in 2023 and two "Scorpene' submarines in 2024 from France. Prabowo was Minister of Defence when these deals signed. Paulo Castellari, the new CEO of Eramet, is part of Macron's delegation to Indonesia's mineral-rich Indonesia. Eramet Chairwoman Christel Bories said that they would be looking to discuss mining permissions in relation to Weda Bay Nickel Mine. Indonesia has the largest known nickel reserves and is the world’s leading producer. Eramet, among other companies, has complained about the reduction of volume allowances. Eramet is still interested in nickel processing, despite having dropped a plan last year to build a BASF plant. (Reporting and writing by Ananda Teresia in Jakarta and Stanley Widanto, in Paris. Editing and proofreading by John Mair.
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Oil prices rise as U.S. bans Chevron's export of Venezuelan crude
The oil prices rose in the early hours of trading on Wednesday, as the U.S. banned Chevron's exports from Venezuela due to a new authorization for its assets there. This raised the prospect of a tighter supply. Brent crude futures gained 47 cents or 0.73% to $64.56 per barrel at 0028 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 49 cents or 0.8% to $61.38 per barrel. Sources reported that the Trump administration had issued a new approval for U.S. giant Chevron, which would allow it to retain assets in Venezuela without allowing them to export oil or expand their activities. Robert Rennie, Westpac's director of commodity and carbon strategies, wrote in a report that the loss of Chevron Venezuelan barrels will lead refiners to rely more on Middle Eastern crude. The previous license had been revoked by the U.S. president Donald Trump on 26 February. The licenses granted to Chevron, and other foreign oil companies in recent years have helped to support a small recovery of Venezuelan oil production that was hit by sanctions. This has risen to around 1 million barrels a day. The European Union has begun to ask top EU companies about their U.S. investments plans. This is a sign that Brussels will be advancing trade negotiations with Washington. Trump's move comes after he backed down from his threat over the weekend to impose tariffs of 50% on European goods, which would have hurt demand for oil and economic activity. The gains on Wednesday have largely recovered the losses of Tuesday when prices fell by around 1% following signs of limited progress in the fifth round of Iran and U.S. nuclear negotiations. The market anticipates that any resolution between Iran and the United States could increase Iranian oil supply on the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies will meet in full on Wednesday. However, no major policy changes are anticipated. Sources say that eight members of OPEC+ could decide on a July output increase when they meet this Saturday. Rennie stated that the most likely scenario for July would be a 411,000 barrel increase per day. This would "add to the rising inventory as we approach the summer driving season here in the U.S."
Andy Home: Trump, tariffs, and tin.
The LME Base Metals Complex got a sneak preview of what to expect.
The threat of similar tariffs on copper caused a transatlantic price gap that was unprecedented.
The micro tariff turbulence has now been accompanied by macro tariff turmoil, as the markets are terrified of a full blown trade war. This week, the London Metal Exchange index of base metals fell 6% as reciprocal tariffs became a reality.
Only one metal has been spared the tariff tsunami. Tin continues to perform better than the rest of LME's pack, boosted by its own supply-chain chaos.
Shocks Rock Tin - Supply
LME's three-month tin increased by 25% in the first quarter 2025, surpassing gold's incredible run.
Tin traders have been on a roller coaster ride due to a series of supply shocks.
The market fell on the news that the giant Man Maw Tin Mine in Myanmar was reopening after an 18-month hiatus. It then rebounded when Alphamin Resources said it would close its Bisie mine, in the Congo, due to the increasing insurgency.
Tin has soared even more after the devastating earthquake in Myanmar that casts new doubt on Man Maw’s return.
Investors are rushing to get in on the action. The long positions of funds have reached record highs.
The LME stock market is slipping and the time-spreads are tightening. This adds to the volatile mix.
The bulls should also note that China has a plentiful supply of tin. Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a 47% rise in stocks this year, and the 9,872 metric ton stock is at its highest level since September.
MINDING THE COPER GAP
Since February, when Trump launched a national-security investigation into copper imports, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on copper trading.
Arbitrage has been played out between the CME U.S. Customs-cleared Price and the LME Global Price. The market has tried to guess when and how much copper tariffs would be implemented.
The CME's record premium over LME Copper has led to a massive movement of metal into the United States. It remains to be determined how much metal makes it through U.S. Customs before tariffs become effective.
CME prices that were at record highs and the physical market disruption initially revived bullish sentiment, but LME copper is now below $9,000 per ton as concerns grow over the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on global manufacturing.
ALUMINIUM PREMIUM ACTION
Tariff trades have been reflected in premiums for regional markets.
Last month, the U.S. Midwest Premium widened to over $900 per ton above the LME Basis Price as the market priced the increase in U.S. Import Tariffs from 10% up to 25%.
The European premiums have dropped sharply in contrast to the U.S., suggesting that physical metal has already been diverted away from this market.
Aluminium was expected to be a big seller at the beginning of this year, but market signals have been mixed and the price has fallen in retaliatory tariff reactions.
NICKEL ATTENDS INDONESIA
Nickel spent the first quarter of 2025 stuck in a wide range between $15,000 and $17,000 per ton.
As overproduction in Indonesia floods the refined nickel chain, the price of nickel has fallen.
From 11% in 2024, the amount of Chinese Nickel stored at the LME has increased to over 50%. This metal is a product of Indonesian raw material that was processed in China. Indonesia is now producing its own refined steel, which can also be found in LME sheds.
Nickel will continue to be oversupplied until Indonesia limits its production growth.
The question is if the Indonesian flood will continue to wash over the refined metal segment or whether it will revert back to the lower-grade class II segment.
All depends on Indonesian margins.
Heavy Stocks Weigh on Heavy Metal
Talking about high stock prices.
Last month, someone cancelled 120,000 tons LME lead stock. However, there was no response from the market in terms of price or time spreads.
Nobody thinks that the physical metal market is short of this much metal. Lead is experiencing the type of LME warehouse arbitration that comes from oversupply and elevated stock levels, which are now 331,000 tons, up from 21,500 tonnes at the beginning of 2023.
Lead's price has remained stable despite the large inventory, but this could be due to its better condition than zinc.
ZINC MINE REBOUND
Zinc is consistently underperforming the rest of LME since the beginning of the year, despite the fact that exchange stocks are falling steadily.
The market seems to be more interested in the zinc raw material narrative than its nuanced refine metal dynamics.
In 2024, the mined zinc production will fall by 2.8% on an annual basis. The raw materials supply chain will tighten to the point where smelter charges are negative in the second part of the year.
In 2025, restarts and new mining are expected to produce a significant recovery.
This new wave of mining supply appears to be gaining momentum. The smelter treatment charge, which had fallen to zero in 2024 due to a lack of mined concentrates, has now risen to $35 per ton.
The demand for zinc was flat last year. With little hope of a recovery within the global construction sector, which is a major use for zinc, it's expected that higher mined production will lead to an oversupply on the refined metal market.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)