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Even as the tariff pause is welcome, global investors are preparing for volatility
The dust has settled after a brutal week, tempered by President Donald Trump's tariff suspension. Global investors have made their point loudly and clearly: the market turmoil is here to remain. Trump announced on Wednesday that he would lower temporarily the heavy duties imposed recently on dozens countries, while increasing pressure on China. The S&P 500 index jumped nearly 10% on Friday, its largest one-day gain since October 2008. On Thursday, Japanese stocks soared 9% while European shares are set to have their best day since the year 2020. Analysts and investors said that the de-risking of U.S. market would continue, with investors increasing their exposure to safe havens while reducing their exposure to Wall Street stocks. Sat Duhra is a portfolio manager with Janus Henderson Investors, Singapore. He said, "Volatility remains, the environment is uncertain, and some impacts are irreversible." "We need to be prepared for more volatility on this issue, and trading it on a short-term basis is for traders and not investors." UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele stated that the rebound in the markets was a chance to prepare for a volatile period. This is especially true given the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States - two of the world's largest economies. While Trump's tariff-free pause has eased fears of a recession, banks still expect a sharp decline in economic growth. The uncertainty surrounding trade levies is likely to affect consumer and business confidence. Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group said that it was clear that the long-term upward trend for U.S. stock prices has broken. He added that he remains cautious. The volatility of the stock and bond markets is still higher than it was before Trump's announcement about reciprocal tariffs last week. The safe-haven Swiss Franc has risen more than 5% so far this month against the US dollar - its best performance since late 2022. The level of shock has been extreme. We've seen (clients) move their money to more safe strategies like money market funds and high-quality fixed-income, as well as private credit in the past few weeks, which are less correlated with markets," Samuel Rhee said at a press briefing. SHAKEN Investors and analysts around the world have pointed out that the sharp drop in U.S. Treasuries this week and the weakness of the dollar are signs that the confidence in the largest economy in the world has been shaken. In a note released before Trump's speech, analysts at Deutsche Bank said that the market has lost confidence in U.S. assets. Ian Lance, portfolio manager of investment firm Redwheel London, said that many investors have their clients' equity exposure largely in the U.S. Investors will consider whether to continue investing in the U.S. because of its high valuations. Then there is policy uncertainty, with someone taking over and changing policy. Lance stated that he has an underweight position on U.S. shares in the global value strategies he manages. The U.S., European and Chinese stocks have all fallen by around 5% this year. Before the tariff pause, Valerie Noel said, "I imagine that some countries are closely watching (the U.S. Tariff Policy) and could accelerate their diversification from U.S. Assets." Investors said that the expectation of more stimulus coming from Beijing would support Chinese stocks, while others stated that U.S./China Trade tensions will be closely monitored for any triggers to further market turmoil. Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, up from 104% that was imposed on Wednesday. "One thing keeps me awake at night is the possibility that a trade conflict could escalate into a monetary war," said Vasileios Gionakis senior economist and strategy at Aviva Investors. China is the world's second largest foreign debt holder after Japan. The recent sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds has raised fears that Beijing may be tempted to liquidate its Treasury holdings. However, it takes some time for the official figures to reflect this.
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USDA: US corn stocks are expected to shrink as exports rise.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on Thursday that corn stocks in the United States will be lower than expected before the next harvest due to higher exports. Grain traders and farmers worry that tariff disputes between the U.S. president Donald Trump could harm demand for American farm product, even though corn exports are strong this year. Trump announced on Wednesday he will temporarily lower the hefty tariffs he just imposed against dozens of nations while increasing pressure on China. China is the largest soybean importer in the world, but it hasn't bought as much corn or wheat from America lately. In a report published monthly, the USDA reduced its estimate of 2024-25 ending corn stocks from 1.54 billion bushels to 1,47 billion bushels. A poll showed that analysts expected 1,51 billion bushels. The agency increased its export forecast from 2,45 billion bushels to 2,55 billion bushels. Terry Reilly is a senior agricultural strategist at Marex. He said, "The biggest surprise was the decrease in ending stock." The USDA's changes helped corn futures reach a high of six weeks at the Chicago Board of Trade. The agency increased its projections for Mexico's corn imports to a new record of 25 million tons. The increase in corn imports is a sign of Mexico's need for grains, Reilly explained. Mexico, as the largest U.S. corn importer, is struggling with a drought. He said, "They are not yet out of the woods." This spring, U.S. growers are expected to plant more corn than in the past 12 years. They will also plant fewer soybeans. USDA estimates that U.S. corn stocks will reach a 2-year low before the harvest in the fall. The USDA predicts that world corn supplies will fall to the lowest levels in 10 years for 2024-25. The USDA estimated world corn ending stock at 287.65 millions metric tons. This is down from the 288.94million tons of March, and lower than analysts' expectations for 288.18 tons. The agency estimated global soy stock at 122.47 millions metric tons. This is up from 121.41 in March, and well above analyst estimates of 122.07 tons. The USDA estimates U.S. soya bean stocks at 375 millions bushels. This compares to the March estimate of 380 million bushels and analyst's expectations of 379 million bushels.
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US stocks and dollar drop on lingering concerns about tariffs, a day after a relief rally
The dollar and major stock indexes continued to fall sharply in Thursday's trading. The Nasdaq fell more than 5%, as investors were still hesitant, just a day after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would temporarily lower tariffs for many countries, which sparked a relief rally. After this week's steep bond sale, U.S. Treasury rates are still slightly higher. Investors are concerned about the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the potential economic impact of the trade war. Trump said on Wednesday that he will also raise the tariffs on Chinese imports. The White House has said that a blanket duty of 10% on nearly all U.S. imported goods will remain in place. Art Hogan is the chief market strategist of B Riley Wealth, a New York-based firm. Stocks fell despite U.S. consumer price data that showed unexpectedly lower prices in March. Investors are also preparing for the beginning of U.S. quarterly earnings. Results from the largest U.S. financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, will be released on Friday. Jake Dollarhide is the chief executive officer at Longbow Asset Management, located in Tulsa. It may be that some of yesterday's rally is being retracted by the market because it realizes some of the relief was not as great they thought. Since Trump's announcement late on April 2, the markets have been in turmoil. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,721.71 or 4.18% to 38,910.92, while the S&P 500 declined 269.29 or 4.89% to 5,190.10, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 997.93 or 5.78% to 16,134.67. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 13.46 points or 1.71% to 771.82. Trump's decision to reverse tariffs on the S&P 500 led to a global rally in stocks, with the S&P 500 soaring 9.5% on Wednesday. The STOXX 600 index for Europe ended the day up 3.7%. China's CSI300 Blue-Chip Index rose by 1.3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index grew by 2.1%. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that the European Union would put 90-day hold on its first countermeasures to Trump's tariffs. The dollar fell 2.28% against the Japanese yen to 144.35. The euro gained 2.19% in relation to the dollar. U.S. Treasury Prices edged up after a strong 10-year note sale and a pause in certain trade tariffs Wednesday helped stabilize the market from a sharp selloff of bonds earlier this week. Yields on U.S. benchmark 10-year notes dropped 4.7 basis points, to 4,349% from 4,396% at late Wednesday. Prices and yields are opposite.
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Report: Restarting coal plants after Trump's executive order makes no economic sense
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said that reopening coal plants decommissioned to achieve this goal would be "no longer economically viable". IEEFA reported that Trump's executive order could delay the closing of coal-fired plants and encourage restarting of 102 coal-fired units recently closed. The report states that the units have had a total generation capacity of 36.566 megawatts for the last four years. However, only a few are likely to be reopened. As coal plants age, their maintenance costs rise. This in turn increases the cost of generation. IEEFA stated that in addition to these costs any unit contemplating a restart will need to finish a large and expensive backlog for required maintenance. The global think-tank, focused on energy, said that Trump's plan of using coal to generate power in order to meet the rising demand for energy ignores the reality that many still-operating plants are operating below their maximum capacity. The U.S. coal-burning plant sector now accounts for less than 20 percent of electricity production, down from 50 percent in 2000. Existing coal plants contribute power to the grid about 40 per cent of the time. The report noted that most utilities have shifted to cheaper and more efficient electricity generation methods, including solar, wind and battery power to meet the growing power demand from data centers. IEEFA stated that "Spending taxpayer or ratepayer money to reopen coal plants with undetermined maintenance needs and an unpredictable future performance is not a good idea, economically or otherwise." (Reporting and editing by Mohammed Safi Shamsi in Bengaluru, Vallari Srivastava)
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US Steel and Nippon Steel Working Closely with Trump Administration, Statement Says
U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel work closely with the Trump Administration "to secure an important investment", U.S. Steel announced on Thursday after President Donald Trump's remarks dimmed the hopes of a greenlight for the long-sought partnership between the two companies. Trump said that he didn't want U.S. Steel to "go to Japan." This sent its shares down by 7%, amid fears that his comments would signal renewed reservations regarding Nippon Steel's $14 billion offer for the 124 year-old American company. U.S. Steel stated that it was still positive about the agreement. The White House didn't immediately respond to comments. Nippon Steel declined to comment. Deal announced in December of 2023 has been a source of controversy from the beginning. Last year, both former president Joe Biden, and Trump, argued that U.S. Steel must remain American-owned in order to gain the support of voters in Pennsylvania, the state where the company's headquarters is located, during an election hotly contested. Biden blocked the deal in January 2025 on grounds of national security. The parties sued Biden, claiming that he had obstructed the review process by publicly opposing the deal to gain reelection. Trump, who was sworn in for a second term on January 20, stated that he would "not mind" if Nippon Steel acquired a minority stake of U.S. Steel. This implied he'd seek to overhaul the deal structure. His government's recent moves have boosted the hopes of an approval for a full takeover. Trump instructed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (which reviews foreign investments to determine whether they pose a national security risk) to review the U.S. Steel bid in order to determine if "further actions" were appropriate. On the same day, the administration and companies requested an appeals court to suspend their litigation until the 5th of June while CFIUS reviewed the tie-up once again. They noted that the process could "fully resolve" claims by the companies. (Reporting and editing by Nia William in Washington, Alexandra Alper from Washington)
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Official: Brazil will continue to engage in US trade talks and expand its existing agreements with the US
Brazil will pursue trade negotiations Tatiana Prazeres, the Foreign Trade Secretary said that on Thursday, France would continue to work with the U.S. and reaffirm its commitment to multilateralism while seeking ways of expanding its network of agreements. Prazeres, at a Brazil-China Business Council event, said: "Our approach with the U.S. is to negotiate and negotiate. That's what we have been doing." She said that she was committed to increasing sales to Europe, with whom Mercosur hopes to ratify a long awaited agreement. trade deal Export diversification is possible. She noted that Mercosur was also advancing discussions with EFTA - the European Free Trade Association, formed by Norway Switzerland Iceland and Liechtenstein. According to Prazeres' analysis, the largest economy in Latin America could benefit from a shift in trade flows caused by the sweeping changes. New tariffs As in the past, President Donald Trump's administration announced this earlier this month. Brazilian soybean Exports to China grew during Trump's first presidency. She emphasized, however, that Brazil is not in favor of a scenario where volatile and unilateral trade swings would hamper the global economy. She also emphasized that Brazil doesn't have a market to replace what China purchases for certain commodities. She warned that there are "significant risks" for the global trade, economy and governance. Brazil has always been a supporter of multilateralism, rules-based trading and doesn't want the current situation to worsen. Prazeres stated that China is Brazil's largest trade partner, and the country is a major purchaser of soybeans, crude oil and iron ore. He also said that the removal of sanitary, phytosanitary, and regulatory barriers would significantly increase Brazilian exports. She called the bilateral relationship "dual," pointing out that, while China is one of Brazil's largest buyers of goods, its exports put pressure on industries in Brazil such as automobiles and consumer goods. Prazeres said that Chinese investment in Brazil’s auto industry and in its productive capacity helped to ease some tensions. (Reporting and editing by Margueritachoy)
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After yesterday's relief rally, stocks drop; dollar also lower
The major stock indices dropped on Thursday. The Nasdaq fell more than 3% at the start of trading after the massive relief rally the previous session, following the decision by U.S. president Donald Trump to temporarily lower heavy tariffs against many countries. After this week's steep bond sale, U.S. Treasury rates have moved higher. Stocks fell despite U.S. consumer price data that showed unexpectedly lower prices in March. Jake Dollarhide is the chief executive officer at Longbow Asset Management, located in Tulsa. Investors are also preparing for the beginning of U.S. quarterly earnings. Results from the largest U.S. financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, will be released on Friday. Dollarhide stated that more news will be coming on the tariff front. "There will still be many pulled guidance," Dollarhide added. It may be that some of yesterday's rally is being retracted by the market because it realizes some of the relief was not as great they thought. Since Trump's announcement late on April 2, the markets have been in turmoil. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 915.22, or 2.30 %, to 39693.23, while the S&P 500 declined 153.61, or 2.81 %, to 5,303.29, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 592.43, or 3.46 %, to 16,532.54. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 2.71 points or 0.35% to 782.57 while the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 4.32%. Trump's decision to reverse tariffs on the S&P 500 led to a global rally in stocks, with the S&P 500 soaring 9.5% on Wednesday. The stocks in Asia have also risen in response to Trump's tariff announcement, including China, despite the fact that Trump said on Wednesday he would increase the tariff on Chinese imported goods to 125%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 2.1%, while China's CSI300 blue chip index rose 1.3%. Other tariffs are still in effect. The White House announced that a blanket 10% duty will continue to be imposed on nearly all U.S. imported goods. This announcement does not seem to affect existing duties on steel, aluminium and autos. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that on Thursday, the European Union would also put 90-day hold on its first countermeasures to Trump's tariffs. Before strengthening, the onshore yuan dropped to its lowest level since December 2007, at 7,3518 per dollar. The dollar fell 1.94% against the Japanese yen to 144.86 while the euro rose 1.73%. BONDS STABILIZE U.S. Treasury Prices edged up after a strong 10-year note sale and a pause in certain trade tariffs Wednesday helped stabilize the market from a sharp selloff of bonds earlier this week. The recent violent U.S. Treasury sale, which evoked the COVID era "dash to cash", had reignited concerns about the fragility of the world's largest bond market. Analysts attribute some of the movement to large liquidations, as hedge funds and asset managers unwound their trades and sold assets because of margin calls and losses. The yield on the 10-year bond was down 4.7 basis points for the day, at 4.349%. Prices move in the opposite direction to yields. Oil prices dropped elsewhere. U.S. crude oil fell by 4.33%, to $59.65 per barrel. Brent ended the day at $62.94 a barrel, a drop of 3.88%.
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Sudan tells World Court UAE fuels Darfur genocide
Sudan informed the International Court of Justice that the United Arab Emirates violated the Genocide Convention on Thursday by supporting paramilitary groups in Darfur. The UAE, however, argued that the case should not be heard as the court lacks jurisdiction. Sudan requested that the judges issue an emergency order to prevent the attacks of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and other Arab militias in West Darfur in 2023, which were documented by. The United Arab Emirates are complicit in the genocide of the Masalit, according to Sudan's acting Justice Minister, Muawia osman. The UAE have repeatedly dismissed Sudan's case as a political ploy and argued that the ICJ (also known as World Court) has no legal authority to hear the claim. They asked judges to dismiss the case. It is beyond doubt that no jurisdiction exists. Reem Ketait is a senior official in the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs. She told the court that the court should remove the case. Sudan accuses UAE of arming RSF, which has been fighting against the Sudanese Army in a civil war that has lasted two years. The UAE denies this charge but U.N. expert and U.S. legislators have found it credible. Ketait, a judge on Thursday, told the court that the UAE had not given any weapons or other material to either side since the beginning of the conflict. In January, the United States declared that the attacks against the Masalit constituted genocide. States can request emergency measures to prevent the dispute between states from escalating in the interim. The Sudanese Justice Minister asked the court to order that the UAE prevent any genocidal actions against the Masalit. In general, the judges will decide on any possible emergency prevention measures a few days after the first hearing.
Haiti jail break leaves 12 dead as prisoners go starving
AUPRINCE, Aug 16 (Reuters)
A jail break in the Haitian city of Saint-Marc left 12 inmates dead on Friday, Mayor Myriam Fievre said, the 3rd such event in Haiti in current months amid a lengthy humanitarian crisis fueled by gang violence.
State Prosecutor Venson Francois said the circumstance on Friday afternoon was under control at the jail, which housed around 540 inmates, but the regional population needs to remain watchful and watch for escapees.
The circumstance is under control but the results are devastating. All the polices' dorms have burnt down. The archives have burnt down. They have actually set everything on fire other than their cells, Francois stated.
Earlier in the day, unverified videos shared on social networks showed individuals climbing up over walls and smoke streaming out of walls ringed with barbed wire, a loud surge and fire.
Walter Montas, a local government official, said the occurrence had actually developed out of a spontaneous protest as detainees were going without food and dealing with appalling health conditions.
The nationwide cops did not right away react to Reuters' ask for more information on the event in Saint-Marc, some 55 miles
(source: Reuters)