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How tariffs have affected India-US relations under Trump
The latest 'flashpoint' between New Delhi, India and Washington is a sweeping U.S. bill on sanctions and tariffs. It adds pressure to the ties that are already strained due to U.S. tariffs against Indian goods and Washington’s close relationship with India's neighbour Pakistan. Here's a look at the?turns and?turns? that have shaped India-U.S. relations during President Donald Trump’s second term. FEBRUARY 20,25 Trump announced that the U.S. will charge the same tariff rate as India. The two countries agreed to work towards a limited free trade agreement and to double their bilateral trade by 2030 to $500 billion. APRIL 2025 New Delhi and Washington have finalised the terms for bilateral trade discussions. The U.S. initially imposed a 26% tariff on certain Indian imports, but then paused the duty for 90 days. Instead they maintained a 10% duty on all imports. JULY 2025 Trump announced a tariff of 25% on all Indian products, which he increased to 50% in August citing New Delhi's continued purchase of Russian oil. New Delhi called the tariff unfair and pledged to defend its national interests. FEBRUARY 20,26 Trump announced that he had reached a "trade agreement" with India, which would reduce U.S. tariffs for Indian goods by 18% if India stopped buying Russian oil and reduced trade barriers. They also released a framework interim for their trade agreement. The U.S. Supreme Court later struck down Washington’s emergency tariffs. Trump then announced a temporary duty of 10% on India and other nations for?150. JULY 2026 Trump announced that, at the end of the 150 day period, he would impose a new 10% tariff on Indian imports, claiming it was one of several countries who had not curbed the imports produced with forced labor. India reported that about 45%?of its exports to the U.S. were exempted products, and it said Washington was still engaged in their bilateral trade agreement. SEPTEMBER 2026 The U.S. Congress passed a bill that would increase sanctions against Iran and Russia for their invasion of Ukraine. The law also allows Trump to impose tariffs up to 100 percent on goods from countries such as India in order to reduce the dependence of these countries on Russian oil and gas. New Delhi warned Washington against such actions, and said it would work closely with industry groups to address the implications of the bill.
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Demand uncertainty limits gains for iron ore companies on China's pre-holiday restocking
Iron ore prices increased for a second time on Thursday as Chinese steelmakers increased seaborne purchases in anticipation of a holiday. However, shrinking steel margins clouded the demand outlook. Iron ore, the most traded contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE), closed daytime trading 0.28% higher than its previous high of 745 Yuan on September 8, still 4.6% lower. As of 0751 GMT the benchmark October iron ore on the Singapore Exchange had increased by 0.52%, to $96.3 per ton. It has been hovering below the psychologically important level of $100 in six consecutive sessions. Steelmakers have booked seaborne cargoes for the week long National Day holiday from October 1-7. Data from the consultancy Mysteel revealed that on Wednesday, the daily seaborne iron ore?volume increased by 43% from the previous day to 1,41 million tons. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Wednesday that they see $90-95 a ton as a good support level for the short term, given current freight rates. They said: "We believe that from October to November, Chinese steel production will slow down and the demand for iron ore will decrease, especially at a period when low-cost seaborne products are being exported by major suppliers, including Simandou. Analysts said that steel mills could slow down restocking due to the tumbling margins, which discourages them from increasing output and curbing prices. Coking coal and coke, which had been trading higher earlier, fell by 1.65% and 0.633% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved sideways. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.12%, while stainless steel rose 1%. Analysts at Zhengxin Futures wrote in a report that "the real steel demand has not shown clear signs of recovery, and missed earlier expectations. But supply contraction continued as losses increased."
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France's CEA, Alice & Bob partner on quantum-supercomputing software
The French state Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), a quantum computing startup, and the Alice & Bob company announced a partnership?on Friday to 'develop' software for utilizing quantum computers with classical supercomputers. Executives at both companies said they will improve Qaptiva, the AI software developed by the state-owned'supercomputer maker Bull,' to compete with Nvidia CUDA-Q. The CEA is a French research center with a yearly budget of nearly EUR6 billion. It oversees France's nuclear defense. The goal is to 'link' conventional supercomputers with quantum processors by assigning only those parts of the problem that a quantum machine?might be able to solve. CEA has installed quantum computers by French companies Pasqal and Quandela alongside 'its classic supercomputer'. Alice & Bob's will be added in 2027.
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Governor of Yaroslavl in Russia says that a drone attack on Ukraine has damaged a Russian oil refinery.
On Thursday, the regional governor Mikhail Yevrayev posted on Telegram that a?Ukrainian?drone attack damaged an oil?refinery located in the Russian city Yaroslavl. The drone caused a fire, which was then extinguished. After Donald Trump announced on Monday that Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement on energy, the Russians have acknowledged their strikes on refineries. However, neither side has confirmed this agreement. On Sunday, Trump urged Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop "targeting" Russian diesel infrastructure. He blamed the attacks for the diesel shortage which is "hurting the whole world". Authorities in Russia's southern region of Krasnodar reported that drone debris had fallen on an industrial site, causing a fire. The fire was quickly extinguished and no injuries were reported. In recent months, Russia and Ukraine exchanged attacks on economic and infrastructure targets to undermine each other's war effort and morale. It was not immediately known the extent of damage to the refinery in Yaroslavl. Slavneft owns the YANOS plant at Yaroslavl, which is jointly owned by Rosneft & Gazprom Neft. The refinery, located?about 250km (155miles) northeast of Moscow was a?previous?target for Ukrainian drones. According to industry sources, the refinery halted production at two of its distillation units following a drone attack that occurred on August 28. YANOS's?crude-processing capacity is 300,000 barrels a day or 15,000,000 metric tons a year. According to industry sources, the refinery will process 14.9 million metric tons crude oil in 2024. This will produce 2.6 millions tons of gasoline, 4 million tons diesel, and 4.7million tons fuel oil.
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Dollar firmer on short-term rates, shares rise after Fed hike
Investors bet that the Federal Reserve will finally get ahead of inflation by delivering the 'first rate increase in over three years' and calming down a global bond saleoff which had sent long-term yields soaring. The U.S. Dollar hit a seven week high against major peers. This was backed by an increase in short-term Treasury rates as markets increased bets that the Fed might have to raise rates again. A move by December is fully priced in. This was a negative for commodities as oil prices fell. All eyes are now on the Bank of England. It is expected that it will keep interest rates unchanged later in the afternoon, but everyone will be watching for any hint as to whether high energy prices might force them to raise in November. Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on Friday. European shares will open higher, as stock futures for the entire region are up by 0.5%. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.7%, and S&P500 Futures rose 0.6% after Wall Street's small losses. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, also rose by 0.3%. Chinese blue-chips fell by 0.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.7%. The Fed increased interest rates by a quarter-point overnight as expected. However, the unanimous decision was hawkish. The dot plot predicted one more rate increase?this year, but did not indicate any?movements next year. Tai Hui is the APAC chief market analyst at JPMorgan Asset Management. He said that investors will need to reassess valuations of assets, especially tech stocks, if the Fed remains hawkish into 2027. "We believe the chances of U.S. interest rates rising above 5% are still low. He added that a catalyst for extending the equity bull is unlikely to happen in the near future. Futures indicate that there is a 53 percent chance the Fed will follow up on its first hike by announcing a second one as early as next month in order to curb inflation. Three rate hikes are expected for this tightening period. The Treasury yield curve flattened. Short-term bonds took a hit, but long-term bonds breathed a sigh relief. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds fell 1 basis point, to 4.7174%. They had risen 6 basis points overnight and reached their highest level since July 2024. The U.S. Dollar reached a seven-week peak of?100.36 versus its major counterparts, after gaining 0.7% over night, the largest daily gain in the last three months. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note in the United States was back to 5% after dipping as low as 4,9385% overnight. Meanwhile, 30-year bond yields were flat at 5.3522%. This is down from a high of 5,401%, which had been reached 19 years ago. Padhraic G. Garvey is the regional head of ING's research for the Americas. He said that Chair Warsh would be happy to see the moderate decline in inflation expectations as a sign of the market's approval of the hike. "It was a still eloquent show. But it won't save the back end. "We identify 5.25% as the next target for U.S. 10 year yield." The stronger dollar hurt commodity markets. Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $105.67 per barrel, after falling 2.7% overnight. Saudi Arabia reportedly offered crude cargoes via Oman. This eased some concerns over Middle East supply disruption. Gold showed resilience however, rising by 0.7%, to $4,293 per ounce. This was a recovery from the overnight fall.
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India pledges to protect its energy security and warns that U.S. tariffs may affect ties
India announced on Thursday that it was committed to ensuring the 'energy security of its people, and would continue to purchase supplies from a variety of sellers depending on market dynamics. This came hours after the United States. A new measure was taken to punish these buyers. New Delhi said it also warned Washington about any new actions that could affect the ties between both countries. The statement was made after the U.S. House of Representatives approved sweeping tariffs and sanctions to increase economic pressure against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The legislation allows President Donald Trump of the United States to impose tariffs up to 100 percent on certain countries, such as India, in order to reduce their dependency on Russian oil and natural gas as well as extend sanctions against Iran. Trump will be asked to sign the bill into law. The Indian foreign ministry stated that it was aware of the passage and that New Delhi has raised the issue in recent months with different U.S. counterparts and "very clearly articulated the potential consequences" for the bilateral relationship as well as the international energy markets. In a statement, it stated that "the Indian side has also made clear their determination to take all the necessary measures to protect their trade and economic interest." It was added that the government would work closely together with industry and trade bodies to "deal" with the implications of this legislation. India, as the third largest oil importer in the world, is one of the biggest purchasers of Russian 'oil. This is seen to help Moscow replenish its budget since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine 2022, and was then hit with sweeping Western sanctions. New Delhi has repeatedly resisted pressure to reduce its oil trade with Russia. Its large population and economy needs reliable, affordable, and secure energy supplies.
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The Fed raises the bar on BoE's hawkishness in MORNING BID EUROPE
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. It turns out that the man?Trump hired for a rate cut actually raised rates instead. Kevin Warsh, the Fed's chief economist, delivered the first rate hike in over three years. He did it in lock-step with his colleagues. Warsh did not provide any forward guidance after the Fed’s last rate decision. He insisted he would not fixate on a single data point. The markets are aware that hikes can be like cockroaches. If you see one there's probably more behind the wall. The dot plot only penciled in one hike this year, but futures prices are pricing three more. Goldman Sachs called for a second hike in October. They argued that it was a natural thing to do to return the Federal Reserve to its 2% inflation goal. Today, the Bank of England is under pressure from the Fed's decision to raise interest rates. Market watchers expect that the BoE will hold steady. However, the board is likely to split up again in order to listen for any hawkish remarks about sticky energy prices forcing the BoE into a hike next month. Bank of Japan will almost certainly raise its rate this Friday. If you look at the markets around the globe, they assume that central banks in the U.S. and Europe, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Australia will have to tighten their policies again by the end the year. As Warsh spoke, short-term Treasury rates soared to their highest levels since mid-2024 and boosted the dollar to a seven-week high. The Fed's rediscovered religion of inflation fighting has actually helped longer-dated bonds, as the benchmark 10-year yield is hovering just below the critical 5% mark. This offered relief to Asian stocks, as most share markets caught a 'bid. European bourses will open with a 0.5% gain, Nasdaq futures up 0.6% and S&P Futures adding 0.5%. Anyone can guess how long the calm will last. The world is adapting to an era of recurring supply shocks, with inflation running hotter than central bankers would like and interest rates higher that investors expected. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision The final Eurozone CPI figures are for August Weekly U.S. jobless claims
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Indonesia President calls for tougher penalties against those responsible for forest fires
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has called for tougher rules and sanctions against those who use slash-and-burn?methods of clearing land. The country is struggling to contain "wildfires" that have been raging in the country for weeks. Indonesia is currently battling the most intense wildfires it has seen in 11 years. "Super El Nino" conditions have drenched the country's fields and forests. The worst affected islands are Borneo, Sumatra and the surrounding areas. This is due to the dangerous haze that has caused respiratory illness. The air quality in Malaysia and Singapore, which are neighbouring countries, is also affected by transboundary pollution. In a meeting with his cabinet, Prabowo said that there would be zero tolerance towards people or companies found to be?responsible? for starting wildfires. He said, "I've asked the State Secretary and the Minister of Law for further investigation into this?specifically regarding legal sanctions", he added. "Maybe we should ask the House of Representatives to stiffen laws and classify this as 'ecological terror'. According to a statement released by the palace late on Wednesday, "This is a serious matter". He also ordered regional governments to abolish immediately exemptions that allow smallholders the use of fire to clear small parcels of land. Prabowo called on the police to investigate companies that violate fire safety standards. Indonesia has deployed over 50 aircraft to conduct cloud seeding and water bombing operations in order to combat the fires. Japan also?joined Indonesia’s water bombing operation on Wednesday. Last week, Japan sent three CH-47 Chinook helicopters but bad?flight conditions prevented their participation. Government data shows that from January to July this year, 202,000 hectares of land (almost 500 000 acres) was burned. Environmental group YKAN estimates that another '600,000 hectares (1.45 million acres) of land was damaged by fire in August. The Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni warned the wildfires may last until the early part of November, with the rainy season arriving later than previously expected.
French wind supply anticipated to increase on Monday
European prompt power prices for Monday were untraded on Friday due to expectations of rising wind power supply throughout the region, other than in Germany, and lower demand.
The German and French baseload power agreements for Monday had actually not traded by 0957 GMT, according to data put together by LSEG.
German wind power output was anticipated to fall by 550 megawatts (MW) on Monday to 36.7 gigawatts (GW), while French wind output was anticipated to get 4.7 GW to 12.8 GW, LSEG information revealed.
Week-on-week, German recurring load is anticipated to increase [on Monday], while CWE's is anticipated to go in the opposite direction. Intermittent renewable supplies are anticipated to plunge in Germany, stated LSEG expert Riccardo Parviero.
French nuclear availability increased 2 percentage points to 83% of total capacity.
EDF will connect the brand-new Flamanville nuclear power station to the electrical energy grid on Friday, according to a declaration by the French energy on Wednesday.
Power usage in Germany is expected to fall by 2.2 GW to 53.2 GW on Monday, LSEG information revealed.
In France, need is predicted to reduce 8.2 GW to 55.1 GW, LSEG data revealed.
German year-ahead power TRDEBYZ5 rose 1.1% to 92.5 euros ($ 96.05) per megawatt-hour (MWh), while the French 2025 baseload agreement TRFRBYZ5 got 1.4% to 72.25 euros/MWh.
Germany's lower house of parliament on Friday passed a. modification to energy law requiring a waiver from Jan. 1, 2025, of a. domestic market gas storage fee on border points and virtual. trading centers. The law modification targets at helping specifically. south-western neighbours diversify gas procurement far from. reliance on Russian gas.
European CO2 allowances for December 2025 CFI2Zc1 acquired. 0.6% at 68.11 euros a metric ton.
(source: Reuters)