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IMF lowers its 2025 Middle East and North Africa growth forecast by 2.6% due to global risks
The International Monetary Fund announced on Thursday that it expects the Middle East and North Africa economy to grow only 2.6% by 2025, as uncertainty stemming a trade war in the world and lower oil prices are weighing on this region. The new projection was a significant downgrade from the October projection, which predicted 4% growth. This comes at a time when the region is grappling with geopolitical tensions and a softer external market. In an interview, Jihad Azour said, "Uncertainty can impact real economy, consumption and investment... All these elements have led to a softerening of projections." The direct impact of tariffs is limited due to the limited integration of trade between the U.S. and the region. In its latest Regional Economic Outlook released in Dubai, the IMF pointed out a gradual improvement in oil production as well as protracted regional conflict and delayed structural reforms in Egypt. The report stated that "the ongoing conflicts in MENA have left profound economic scars and deep humanitarian costs," adding that it has had a severe impact on the region's oil-importing economies. In 2025, the MENA non oil importers will see a real GDP increase of 3.4%, compared to an earlier forecast that predicted 3.6%. DIVERGING OUTLOOKS The growth of non-Gulf Cooperation Council (non-GCC) oil exporters will slow down by one percentage point - a sharply downward revision – before staging a modest rebound in 2026. The GCC economy is projected to grow, but at a slower rate than in October. This is due to the extended OPEC+ production cuts that will continue through April. There will also be a gradual phase out by 2026 and a weaker non-oil sector. Azour stated that "with all these changes and obstacles, it is important to also seek new trade partners," referring to GCC. The GCC comprises Bahrain, Kuwait Oman, Qatar Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. IMF predicts GCC GDP growth of 3.2% for 2025, down from the 4.2% it predicted in October. GCC countries are stepping up their efforts to diversify economies. Initiatives like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, and the UAE’s push in tourism, logistics, and manufacturing aim to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons. Azour stated that "trade diversification, structural reforms accelerated, and productivity improvement are all elements which will help non-oil sectors to maintain a high level of growth." (Reporting by Manya Saini in Dubai Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
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Sumitomo Corp eyes record profit, creates loss buffer against US tariffs
Sumitomo Corp, a Japanese trading company, forecasted a record-breaking net profit of $4 billion for the current fiscal period and set aside financial buffers to protect against any negative effects of U.S. Tariffs. Sumitomo reported a net profit of 562 billion yen for the fiscal year ending in March. This was up 45.4% compared to a year ago and beat analysts' expectations, which were 554.2 billion. The strong performance in non-mineral resource segments, including real estate, is credited with this. Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett’s company, is a major minority shareholder of Sumitomo, as well as other Japanese trading companies, such Mitsui. It has been increasing its ownership in recent years. The company has set aside a buffer of 40 billion Japanese yen for losses, saying that although the direct impact from U.S. Tariffs will be limited, there may still be an indirect impact. Sumitomo will increase its annual dividend from 130 yen to 140 yen in the fiscal year that ends next March. It also plans to buy up to 2,9% of its 80 billion yen worth shares. It expects to increase nickel production at its Ambatovy Nickel project in Madagascar from less than 30,000 tons last year as several issues are resolved, including the pipeline.
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Russell: Gold is showing signs of consolidation, as investments ease. But Trump looms.
The gold price has stabilized after reaching a new record high. There are early signs of consolidation in the wake of a rally fueled by fears about Donald Trump's policies on trade. The price of gold slipped to $3,287.72 per ounce, a 6.1% drop from its all-time high of $3,500.05 on April 22, a decline that was accompanied by a decline in the number. Spot gold has still risen 30% since its low price of $2,536.71 per ounce in November 2014, the day after Trump won the election over former Vice President Kamala Harris. World Gold Council data shows that investment flows have driven the rally, mostly due to fears that Trump's tariffs will hit the global economy hard, and cause inflation in the United States. The WGC reported that total gold investment flow soared by 170% during the first quarter 2025 compared to the same period one year prior, reaching 552 tons. This is the highest level since the first three months of 2022. The demand for exchange-traded fund (ETF) increased dramatically in the first three months of this year, from 18.7 tons to 226.5 tons. This is a huge increase from the 113 tons sold in the first third of last. The first quarter saw a 3% increase in physical coin and bar purchases, compared to the same period last year. The increase in investment flows more than offset the decline in gold's major drivers. Central bank purchases fell 21% to 243.7 tonnes in the first three months, and jewellery production dropped 19% to 434 tonnes. High prices are likely to have played a part in depressing demand for jewellery, particularly in China and India. The WGC report stated that China's demand for jewellery dropped by 32% from the same period of 2024 in the first quarter to 125.3 tonnes, and India's fell by 25% to 71.4 tonnes, the lowest since the third quarter 2020. The market will be able to tell if the Trump-inspired flight towards safety, which was fueled by investment, has run its course or if the gold rally is still going strong. FLOWS EASING The largest gold ETF SPDR Trust has shown a modest drop in holdings after reaching a high of 31 months in April. The SPDR reported that its holdings fell to 30,36 million ounces Wednesday, down from the 30.84 million ounces peak reached on April 17 this year. This retreat could be due to signs that Trump's administration is reversing its tariff war on the rest of world, except for China, which is its biggest trading partner. Officials in the administration have discussed the possibility of announcements soon with certain trading partners. Trump has also said that he expects a de-escalation to occur with China, even though there is still no evidence this is happening, and the 145% import tariff remains in place. For now, it is possible that most investors who wanted more exposure to gold did so. To get them to buy again would require further alarming news. It could be in many different forms. For example, it could be a sign that the trade talks are mostly ineffective, and tariffs are likely to remain. This is a possibility, given that the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on 2 April are only on hold for 90 days. Investors may also revalue U.S. assets if the U.S. Congress passes significant income tax cuts that are skewed towards the wealthy. This is due to fears about rising fiscal deficits. While Trump has backtracked on his threats to fire Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, there is still a risk that a Trump crony will be appointed to the position when Powell's tenure expires in the next year. This could keep gold as an alternative investment option. The trading pattern of gold over the last two decades was characterized by a period of rallying followed by years of consolidation. The current rally is unusually strong and rapid, raising the possibility of a pullback prior to a consolidation period. The world economy is in uncharted waters as Trump tries to detonate the global trading system. This will most likely come at a cost, not only to Trump's own economy but to all others. Gold will continue to rise if the bad news continues. However, it is also vulnerable to any change in U.S. policies that may return to normalcy. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Rio Tinto has failed to fulfill core commitment five years after Juukan, Aboriginal groups says
Rio Tinto failed to modernise its agreement with the Aboriginal group on whose land it mines iron ore. The group claimed that Rio Tinto had not fulfilled a five-year-old commitment when it destroyed a significant Aboriginal heritage site. Rio Tinto has pledged to reform their business practices following the destruction of 46,000 year old rock shelters at Juukan Gorge in Western Australia for an iron ore mining in 2020. The destruction led to a public outcry and investor anger, a government investigation and the eventual departure of its CEO and Chair. Deanna McGowan, of the Robe River Kuruma Aboriginal Corporation, said that at Rio Tinto’s annual general meeting held in Perth, the Mesa J Mine, the largest mine on the group’s land, has been operational for 30 years. She said, "You've paid us for three-years." Rio Tinto executives said that when they negotiated with the elders of the group twenty years ago there was no reason to include the mine as it would close soon, she explained. She said, "And now we are at... 17 years that Rio has defrauded us at Mesa J." The Robe River Kuruma group does not include Juukan Gorge, but is located in the same Pilbara area. Dominic Barton, the Rio Tinto chairperson, said that the company is committed to finding a solution for the issues raised McGowan. "We are committed to working with you to reach an agreement and resolution. Barton stated that they have had several conversations, and will continue to do so after the meeting. "There is a strong commitment from us to work with you on these issues," he said. Barton had said earlier in the AGM that the mining giant has relationships with over 60 Indigenous groups and land-related groups around the world. He said that "many of these relationships are positive, but a few remain challenging." After the Juukan Gorge disaster, inquiries revealed that agreements made between mining companies and Aboriginal groups prevented them from publicly speaking about the damage they had done to their heritage. They also underpaid them for mining on their land. Rio Tinto, along with other major mining companies such as BHP or Fortescue, have pledged to update land-use agreements they had signed with traditional groups. Rio Tinto's production schedule could be disrupted if it fails to reach these agreements. In its quarterly report, the miner warns that it is "subject to approvals of planned mining areas and clearance of heritage".
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London copper gains; firm dollar, soft US growth data cap rise
London copper rose on Thursday, after U.S. president Donald Trump hinted that a possible trade deal could be reached with China. This signaled a deescalation of tensions with the world's largest metals consumer. However, a stronger dollar, and weak U.S. economic data, capped gains. As of 0402 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), rose by 0.2%, to $9,142 per metric ton. Trump stated on Wednesday that he had "potential" deals with India and South Korea, and said that it is very likely that the U.S. would make a deal in China. The dollar rose on Thursday, despite weak U.S. economic data. Investors were also looking for signs that the trade conflict may be ending. The greenback price of commodities is more expensive for buyers who use other currencies. Data showing that the U.S. economic contraction contracted for the 1st time in 3 years during the first quarter was a dampener on the mood. Businesses were rushing to import goods in order to avoid tariffs and higher costs. The decline in trade also highlights the chaotic nature of Trump's often-chaotic trade policy. "Incoming data continue to signal an economy slowdown in the U.S. An increased recession risk is underscored by a slower pace of hiring and a smaller-than-expected drop in GDP," ANZ Research stated. Other London metals saw aluminium rise 0.02% at $2,400 per ton, while zinc rose 0.04% at $2,593.5. Lead fell 0.05% at $1,956.5. Tin gained 0.2%, reaching $31,400, and nickel dropped 0.3%, falling to $15,380. The Mainland China Market will be closed on May 1st for a 5-day holiday to celebrate Labour Day. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Aich, Rashmi Anich, and Neha Arora)
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Couche-Tard opens up negotiations for Japan's Seven & i by gaining access to the books
Alimentation Couche-Tard and Japan's Seven & i have signed a non-disclosure (NDA) agreement that will allow the Canadian company to access the Japanese retailer's data in order to pursue a $47 Billion acquisition. The deal represents progress in the takeover negotiations for Couche-Tard. It operates Circle-K convenience store in Canada and in the United States, and has been trying since August to acquire Seven & i. Seven & i, the operator of 7-Eleven, said that the terms and conditions of the agreement would remain confidential. The agreement includes a clause that protects the target companies against hostile takeovers. Couche-Tard said it may be able to improve its offer if it has access to "full diligence information". The current offer, which is around $47 billion, would be the largest foreign takeover of Japanese companies ever. In a statement, Paul Yonamine, the chairman of Seven & i’s independent special committee for examining bids, stated that "the execution of the NDA" was a positive step towards a constructive engagement with ACT. Seven & i previously stated that Couche-Tard’s refusal to accept "standard protections" such as a stoppage provision in a friendly agreement has prevented a NDA being signed. It also claimed that antitrust hurdles are the main barrier to the transaction in the U.S., but the two companies have been working on finding a buyer since March for more than 2,000 stores which are candidates for divestment. Seven & i, which is pursuing the takeover, has accelerated a revamp of its management and operations. This includes selling non-core lines of business, appointing a chief executive and proposing four board members. According to a recent report, Institutional Shareholder Services, a proxy adviser, has advised shareholders to support the appointment and new board members of Stephen Dacus as the new CEO. Seven & i stocks rose 2.7% on Thursday morning in Tokyo, beating the Nikkei. (Reporting from Urvi Dugar, in Bengaluru; Kaori Kaneko in Tokyo, Makiko Yamazaki in Tokyo, and Anton Bridge, in Tokyo. Editing by Alan Barona and Muralikumar Aantharaman, and Sonali Paul.
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S&P downgrades Woodside's credit rating to 'negative" after LNG investment decision
S&P Global Ratings changed the outlook of Australia's Woodside from "stable" to "negative" after the company made a final decision on investment for $17.5 billion in its Louisiana liquefied gas project. The rating agency stated that Woodside's decision to move forward with the project, without a substantial sell-down of the offtake exposure, has reduced the headroom for ratings. The agency has affirmed Woodside's 'BBB+ long-term issuer rating' and 'BBB+ long-term issuer ratings'. The Australian oil and Gas Company approved an LNG project worth billions of dollars in Louisiana earlier this week. They were confident that the U.S. government would be pro-fossil-fuel and there would be a strong demand. Woodside now holds a majority of the U.S. Project after selling a 40% stake to U.S. Infrastructure Investor Stonepeak. S&P stated that Woodside was exposed to market risks of the entire project, compared to its current effective interest of 60% in the project. Woodside's Chief Executive Officer Meg O'Neill reaffirmed this week that Woodside is seeking a further stake diluting in the LNG Project. S&P anticipates that Woodside's fund from operations to debt ratio will track at around 50% in the next few years. The ratings agency stated that future ramp-ups of the Louisiana project will likely reduce cash flow. This means the energy giant has very little capacity to cope with lower oil prices or cost increases at any of their major projects.
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London copper prices rise; weak US economic data and a strong dollar cap gains
London copper rose on Thursday after comments by U.S. president Donald Trump about a possible trade deal with China. This signaled a de-escalation of tensions with the world's largest metals consumer. However, a stronger dollar as well as weak U.S. economic data limited gains. As of 0228 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), was up 0.5%, to $9,167.5 per metric ton. Trump said that on Wednesday he had "potential" deals with India and South Korea, and that there was a good chance the U.S. would make a deal China. Investors focused on signs that the trade war could be cooling off as they pushed the dollar higher on Thursday. The greenback price of commodities is more expensive for buyers who use other currencies. The fact that the U.S. economic growth was negative in the first three months also weighed on the mood. The U.S. economic contraction contracted for the 1st time in 3 years during the first quarter. Businesses rushed to import goods in order to avoid tariffs, which would have increased costs. This underscored the chaotic nature of Trump's trade policy. ANZ Research stated that "Incoming data continue to signal an economic downturn in the U.S. An increased recession risk is underscored by a slower pace of hiring and a smaller-than-expected drop in GDP." Other London metals saw aluminium rise 0.08%, to $2.401.5 per ton. Zinc fell 0.1%, to $2.589.5. Lead rose 0.03%, to $1.958. Tin advanced 0.2%, to $31,400. And nickel dropped 0.1%, to $15,400. The Mainland China Market will be closed on May 1st for a 5-day holiday to celebrate Labour Day. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; reporting by Neha arora)
Woodside and BP Sign Gas Supply Deal for Louisiana LNG
Woodside has signed an agreement with BP for the supply natural gas to the Louisiana LNG project.
The agreement represents the first tranche of a diversified portfolio of feedgas that will support the Louisiana LNG project, enabled by the project’s extensive interconnectivity to multiple producing basins and interconnecting pipelines.
Under the agreement, Louisiana LNG Gas Management LLC (GasCo), a wholly owned subsidiary of Louisiana LNG, has committed to purchase on a long-term basis up to 640 billion cubic feet of gas from BP for an ultimate delivery to Line 200 beginning in 2029.
GasCo will be responsible for implementing the gas sourcing strategy to support the Louisiana LNG project, according to Woodisde.
On April 29, Woodside made final investment decision (FID) to the three-train, 16.5 million tonne per annum (Mtpa) Louisiana LNG project, targeting the first LNG in 2029.
“Louisiana LNG is a compelling investment, expected to deliver significant cash generation and create long term shareholder value. Securing this gas supply agreement is an important step for the project.
“Woodside has a long history of successful collaboration with BP. By drawing upon BP’s experience with MiQ certificates, we can access verifiably low methane intensity molecules for the Louisiana LNG project. This supports Woodside’s goals as a member in the UN Environment Programme’s OGMP 2.0 initiative,” said Meg O’Neill, Woodside’s CEO.