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Fading optimism over US-China tariff pause drives copper down
Copper and other base materials fell on Thursday, as the optimism over a 90 day pause on most retaliatory duties agreed between Beijing and Washington began to fade. By 0949 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), fell by 1.1% to $9.502.50 per metric ton. On Wednesday, the metal used in construction and power had grown five times before, and reached $9,664, which was its highest price since April 2. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that industrial metals are now aware of the damage done to both the U.S. and the Chinese economies. This has renewed concern about the future demand outlook. "We must remember that this is a temporary truce on trade tariffs and not an agreement final. There are still many obstacles to overcome." Citi analysts said that they expected the average copper price to drop to $8,800 from $9,300 during the current quarter, as the frontloading in trade and manufacturing sparked by the 90-day reprieve will fade. Citi said that "trade tariffs are still higher than they were before April, despite recent bilateral agreements and possible future ones. We expect to see an impact on the growth of physical metals consumption and the payback from front-loaded goods trade by the third quarter." Demand for copper supplies from the U.S. is currently supporting the price of copper outside the U.S. Where the premium on COMEX Copper Futures over the LME Benchmark is elevated because Washington's investigation into possible new import tariffs on metal. Citi said that an announcement of tariff implementation would likely trigger a de-winding through the drawdown of U.S. copper inventories, causing a temporary drop in U.S. imported demand. Aluminium fell 1.4% to $2.493.50 per ton. Zinc dropped 1.8% to 2.713.50. Lead fell 0.5% at $1.987.50. Tin was unchanged at $32,805 while nickel slipped 1.6% to 15.615. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens; Polina Devitt)
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Stellantis Chairman says less EU regulations will reduce car costs
John Elkann, chairman of Stellantis, said in a joint interview with Renault CEO Luca de Meo on Thursday that the European Union must cut down regulations that make cars, particularly smaller models, expensive. Elkann appeared via video link at the FT Future of the Car Summit, London. The two leaders made their joint appearance just over a month after the European parliament voted for a faster implementation of EU CO2 emission targets for cars, vans and trucks. This will give automakers more time and allow them to reduce fines. Renault's de Meo stated that the French automaker "doesn’t make money" with some small cars. He added that regulations between 2015 and 2030 will increase the cost of medium-sized Renault cars by 20%, and small cars by 40%. De Meo stated that "small cars have a purpose, and could even reboost Europe's automotive market." Reporting by Giulio Pieovaccari, Nick Carey and Tomaszjanowski.
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China's production cap will support aluminium despite trade disputes
Analysts said that a weakening in demand for aluminium due to trade tensions could weigh on prices. However, a long-standing Chinese production cap may limit the losses. After tariffs imposed by President Trump, the prices of aluminum have dropped 2% at the London Metal Exchange so far this season. China produces about 60% of the aluminium used for construction, transport and green energy. The government has set a cap on its output of 45 million tonnes per year to reduce overcapacity. "We're already very close to the 45 million mark, and we don’t see much additional capacity globally." The price increase is a good thing (this year), said HSBC analyst Howard Lau. An April poll showed that aluminium supplies were around 76,000,000 tons, which is a market analysts believe to be balanced. This small surplus could be turned into a deficit if there are any disruptions, such as the loss of hydropower, in China's Yunnan Province, where much of China's aluminum smelting capability is located. Morgan Stanley stated that a tightening of the market due to China's capacity limit, would see prices around $2,600. This is just above current levels. However, recession risks could drive it below $2,000, if demand decreases. This would be the lowest price since 2021. Ewa Mnthey, ING commodities analyst, said that demand for aluminum is likely to fall as the U.S. economy slows down due to tariffs. China's economy has already been struggling to recover. The trade relations between China & the U.S. are thawing a bit, as both sides have agreed to reduce reciprocal tariffs temporarily for 90 days. After 90 days, however, there are still uncertainties, such as the possibility of a recession. David Wilson, senior commodities analyst at BNPParibas, believes that aluminium will outperform the copper market this year. He said that while copper has a lot of growth potential in the long-term, aluminium does not have enough.
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IEA predicts a slowdown in the growth of global oil demand for the remainder of 2025
The International Energy Agency (IEA), said Thursday that economic headwinds and record sales of electric cars will reduce global oil consumption growth to 650,000 barrels a day for the rest of 2025. This is a significant drop from the 990 000 bpd that the IEA estimated for the demand growth between January and March. In its oil market report for May, the IEA stated that "increased trade uncertainties are expected to have a negative impact on the global economy, and by extension, the oil demand." IEA expects the global demand to grow by 740,000 bpd this year. This is an increase of 20,000 bpd from last month due to higher economic growth expectations and lower oil prices that support consumption. The demand is expected to grow by 760,000 bpd on average in 2026. The Paris-based watchdog increased its forecast for supply growth by almost 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the month, to 1.6million bpd by 2025. This was due to higher production from Saudi Arabia offsetting a predicted decline in U.S. oil production in a lower price environment. The IEA says that Saudi Arabia is responsible for the majority of the increase in its 2025 forecast supply growth, since it is the only nation with the capacity to add barrels to the market based upon current production levels. At its last meeting, the OPEC+ Group agreed to a second monthly accelerated production increase for June. The IEA has cut its U.S. shale production forecasts by 40,000 bpd in 2025 and 190,000. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its 2025 oil supply forecasts for the U.S. The IEA reported that a sharp increase in oil supply will push storage levels up by 720,000 bpd on average this year. Last year, stocks had declined by an average 140,000 bpd. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janowski, Jan Harvey and Alex Lawler from London)
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Suedzucker confirms lower earnings forecast on weak sugar markets
Suedzucker, Europe's biggest sugar producer, confirmed on Thursday that it expects a decline in earnings for this financial year as the EU sugar markets remain weak in the coming months. The company said it hopes for an improvement in the sugar market by October 2025. The company has confirmed that it will achieve a full-year operating profit between 150 and 300 millions euros ($168-$336million), down from the previous estimate of 350 million euros for the year ending February 2025. Sugar producers in the European Union have been hit by low prices due to the decision of the bloc to allow the importation of cheap Ukrainian sugar, as part of their support for Ukraine following Russia's invasion. In March, it was reported that the EU wanted to drastically cut Ukrainian sugar imports after European producers complained about large shipments fueling a price collapse. The company stated that "the significant drop in the price of sugar in fiscal 2024/25 would impact the market up until the autumn of 2025." We expect lower EU sugar production for the 2025/26 marketing year. This will lead to a rise in sugar prices in October 2025, at the start of the 2025/26 marketing year. This financial year, the company is expecting an operating loss of 100 to 200 million euros in its sugar business. Suedzucker is involved in a variety of businesses, from bioenergy and processed foods to ethanol.
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Gulf markets dull as global stock rally loses momentum
The majority of Gulf stocks were flat on Thursday morning, with oil prices falling and Asian stock markets declining after the initial excitement from eased trade tensions started to fade. Investors waited for more signals. Brent crude futures fell more than 2% and U.S. Crude also dropped. The global stock market had earlier in the week rejoiced over the truce between the U.S. and China trade war. However, the rally was lost as investors took a pause to assess the situation and its impact on the economy. Dubai's main stock index was the sole market in the region to choose a clear direction. It rose 0.3%. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index of stocks was flat at 0706 GMT. Saudi Aramco announced on Wednesday that it had signed 34 preliminary agreements with major U.S. firms, which could be worth up to $90-billion. In early trading on Thursday, shares of Aramco fell by 0.4%. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, signed a number of agreements for economic and bilateral co-operation with Saudi Arabia this week. The agreement was part of a four day Middle East tour that focused on negotiating with a major Mideast ally. The benchmark index in Abu Dhabi was down by 0.02% while the benchmark index for Qatar was down by 0.06%. (Reporting by Chandini Monnappa in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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Government advisers: Germany is on track to meet its 2030 climate goals, but future targets are at risk
Independent government advisers on Thursday warned that Germany risks missing its post-2030 targets but is on track to reach its 2021-2030 goal. They urged a clear, long-term strategy for Europe's biggest economy. According to the Expert Council on Climate Issues, Germany will likely achieve its 2030 target of reducing emissions by 65% compared to 1990 levels thanks to exceptional events such as the COVID-19 Pandemic and a slowdown in the industrial sector. The Climate Protection Act allows for a certain amount of greenhouse gas emissions. It projects that Germany will miss its climate targets beyond 2030 as forests and wetlands, which were previously carbon sinks, are now becoming sources of emissions as a result of forest degradation. This puts the country's carbon neutrality target for 2045 at risk. Last week, a new German coalition of conservatives, Social Democrats, and Greens took office. They prioritized economic recovery and sought to change the energy policy of the previous government, which they viewed as being too focused on climate. The council called on the government to concentrate its efforts in areas where emissions have not decreased. The council concluded that sectors such as construction and transport did not achieve their targets for 2024 and had a worse performance than the previous year. Berlin has struggled to find a balance between climate protection and affordability. This is reflected in the transformation of these two sectors that directly impact people's daily lives, such as home heating or mobility. Brigitte Knapp, the Deputy Chair of the Council, said that the coalition agreement did not address key problems and was vague in several places. The report said that a long-term plan that specifies the interaction between residual carbon emissions and natural and technological carbon sinks should be developed as soon as possible. (Reporting and editing by Nia William in Berlin, Riham Alkousaa)
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Trump claims the U.S. is close to an agreement with Iran on a nuclear deal
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that on Thursday the United States is very close to reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran and that Tehran has "sort of" accepted the terms. Trump told AFP that he was in "very serious" negotiations with Iran to achieve long-term stability. Officials said that the latest round of talks between Iranians and Americans to resolve differences over Tehran's nucleus programme ended on Sunday in Oman. Further negotiations are planned. Tehran and Washington both say they prefer diplomacy in resolving the decades-long dispute over nuclear weapons. However, they are deeply divided about several redlines that negotiators must avoid to reach a deal and avert a future military strike. Iran's President reacted to Trump's comments Tuesday, calling Tehran the "most damaging force" in the Middle East. He contrasted the "collapse" and "suffering" caused by Iranian leadership with Saudi Arabia's constructive vision. "Trump believes he can threaten and sanction us, and then talk about human rights." "They (the United States) are responsible for all the crimes and instabilities that occur in the region," Masoud Pezeshkian stated, adding that Tehran wished to see peace instead of U.S. war. "Saudi Arabia, a muslim country. How can we be against these people? Trump wants to place Iran and the Islamic world on opposite sides. He wants to create unrest inside Iran."
Union wins with two goals from Tai Baribo in the second half
Tai Baribo scored twice, including the winning goal in the sixth minute during second-half stoppage, as the Philadelphia Union defeated the Los Angeles Galaxy 3-2 on Wednesday, preventing them from winning any games this season.
Nathan Harriel scored another goal for the Union (8-3-3, 26 points). The Union extended their unbeaten streak to six games in a row (3-0-3) over all competitions. Andrew Rick, the goaltender, did not have to make any saves.
Mauricio Fagundez and Diego Cuevas each scored in the first half for the Galaxy (0-10-3; 3 points), which extended the longest streak of winless seasons to begin a season ever recorded by MLS. John McCarthy recorded six saves in the defending MLS Cup Champions' goal.
Cuevas took the Galaxy to a rare win in the 31st minutes, scoring just inside the right goal post after Marco Reus carried the ball from midfield following a Union mistake. Los Angeles led for only the second time in this season, when it scored early against Orlando City.
Los Angeles scored again six minutes later when Fagundez, who also received a feed by Reus, netted.
The Galaxy's halftime advantage of 2-0 was quickly erased in the second period. Harriel's set play goal off a corner kicked brought the Union within 2-1 of the Galaxy three minutes after halftime. Philadelphia equalized two minutes later when Baribo scored a header after a centering ball from Danley Jean-Jacques.
Baribo scored the game-winner on a header, after Galaxy failed to clear the ball from their own penalty zone. Baribo was assisted by Mikael Houre. Baribo now has 10 goals for the season, after entering the match tied with the league leader.
Union had a resounding victory, dominating scoring opportunities, with 24 shots including nine in the goal. Galaxy's two goals were scored on just four shots.
Los Angeles has conceded 31 goals, the most in MLS.
Field Level Media
(source: Reuters)