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Gold reaches a two-week high on a softer dollar and Fed outlook
Gold reached a two-week high on Wednesday, boosted by a softer dollar, and technical 'buying.' Markets weighed Middle East tensions, and awaited new interest rate signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Gold spot rose 1.7% by 1:35 pm EDT (1641 GMT) to $4,145.24 an ounce, after hitting its highest level in July at $4,165.87 earlier that day. U.S. Gold Futures for August delivery settled 1.9% higher, at $41561.90. Gold exploded higher and punched above $4,140, as a lower dollar and dip buyers instilled fresh inspiration to bulls, said Lukman otunuga senior research analyst at FXTM. He added that "the underlying bearish fundamentals could cap upside gains, especially since oil prices rose over 3% in the morning." The U.S. Dollar Index weakened?on Wednesday making greenback priced bullion more accessible for overseas buyers. U.S. Secretary?of State Marco Rubio said Washington would be willing to negotiate an end the Iran crisis, but Tehran wasn't serious about talking. Four tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for Asia reversed course on Wednesday in the Red Sea after being threatened by the Houthis of Yemen, a group that is aligned with Iran and controls the coast along the southern route. On the news, oil prices rose to a six-week high. The increased oil prices caused by the Gulf supply disruptions are weighing down on gold prices, as they have 'raised expectations for higher interest rates over a longer period of time. This tends to reduce the appeal of non yielding?gold. The Fed is likely to maintain its key interest rate for the remainder of 2026. Markets are pricing in two rate increases by the end of March, next year. According to the CME?FedWatch tool, traders expect an interest rate increase in September. Investors will be watching the FOMC's interest rate decision next week to get a better idea of the Fed's monetary policy. The price of spot silver increased by 2%, to $59.98 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.7%, to $1.640.63. Palladium increased 1.4%, to $1.299.47. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Ananda in Bengaluru, Nia William and Joyjeet Das.)
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Middle East War Deepens Oil Deficit Outlook for 2026, but 2027 Still Looms
According to a survey of analysts, the conflict in the Middle East is causing forecasts to be more dire for a global oil shortage in 2026. However, recovering Gulf flows, robust U.S. output and weaker "demand" from China will likely tip the market to an oversupply by 2027. The Iran War has slowed down crude production in the Gulf and slowed exports, causing analysts to lower their forecasts for near-term supplies and change course from previous expectations that there would be a glut of oil this year. Eight analysts polled see an average deficit in 2026 of 1.5 million barrels a day, which is roughly twice the 750,000 bpd forecast in a poll conducted in April. Prior to the Iran War, analysts had predicted a surplus of 1.63 million barrels per day for 2026. The poll revealed that the market will rebound to a surplus in 2027 of 1.9 millions?bpd. This market has quickly shifted from fear of scarcity to glut risk. The U.S. dominates the energy market -- our exports are a lifeline," said Phil Flynn. Senior analyst at Price Futures Group. The Iran War, which began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran, led to Iranian attacks on Gulf States that host U.S. bases and major disruptions in global energy supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This was a conduit of?about a quarter of prewar oil supplies. Last month, the oil markets received some relief as an agreement between the U.S.A. and Iran allowed the Strait to open. However, a recent increase in hostilities has pushed up prices and reduced supplies. Brent crude futures are up around 28% in July. According to LSEG, the prices rose by 63% in March. GLOBAL OIL STOCKS COULD SEE NEW HIGHS Analysts see a number of supply-side factors that will lead to a surplus market in 2027. These include increased flow out of the Gulf following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+’s decision not to reverse its production cuts, and the strong output of the U.S. HSBC has trimmed its forecast by 0.78 million bpd for this year, and 0.55 millions bpd for 2027 compared to pre-war estimates. This is due to the electrification of China and substitute effects. By the end of 1Q 2027, oil stocks in the world could have recovered to their February 2026 peak, erasing all declines from March until late summer 2026. Then, they will continue to rise to new'record levels, surpassing the 2020 pandemic level,' said Kim Fustier. He is head of European Oil & Gas Research at HSBC. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply rose by 4.1 millions bpd during June. However, it was still 9.4million bpd lower than pre-war levels. The International Energy Agency expects the supply to rise by 7.5 millions bpd next year, depending on better transits through Hormuz. The analysts polled by?by cautioned also that any future expectations of a market?surplus would depend on how quickly the flow through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize. After the interim agreement, we saw a "mini glut" in supply. Many trapped vessels left the Strait. Will ships enter the Strait as quickly as before? said DBS Bank analyst Suvro Sarkar.
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German nuclear fuel plants cleared to work with Rosatom
Germany approved a French company's application to produce nuclear fuel rods in a licensing deal with Russian state-backed firms on Wednesday, despite concerns from political circles. The German government argued that the request lacked legal grounds for rejection. A Framatome subsidiary had applied to produce fuel elements at its plant in northern Germany to supply nuclear plants on the Eastern European market, using Russian licenses and technology. This was a joint venture between Russian firms TVEL/Rosatom. The Lower Saxony Environment Ministry, under the guidance of the Federal Environment Ministry, granted approval to the project subject to certain conditions. A spokesperson for the federal ministry stated that the decision to cooperate with a Russian company owned by the state was taken in compliance with German nuclear laws. The ministry stated in a?statement that "the appropriate instrument to?address?this is not nuclear legislation, but EU-wide sanctions including those in the?nuclear?sector." "To date, however, the majority of member countries have not supported such sanctions. We continue to support EU sanctions against Russia's nuclear sector. Framatome welcomes the decision. Framatome released a statement saying that "this decision strengthens European Energy Security, supports industrial sovereignty, and reaffirms" our commitment to provide safe and diverse fuel supply solutions for nuclear operators across Europe. The French company that produces nuclear reactor parts has said the collaboration was an interim step for customers who operate Russian-designed reactors to diversify their purchases away from Russian products until they develop their own production technology. The German authorities had closely examined its application, including security and sabotage issues. The license now granted includes a number stipulations to mitigate these risks. These include an entry ban for TVEL or Rosatom staff as well as external audits of the equipment and fuel rods that arrive from Russia. A spokesperson for the German ministry said that there has been no agreement between the EU and Russia on extending sanctions to include nuclear power. However, Germany is working on this. Reporting from Holger Hansen, Forrest Crellin, and Nora Buli, in Berlin; Writing by Ludwig Burger; Editing by Kirstiknolle, and Editing William Maclean
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Oil prices rise on US-Iran strikes; stocks fall ahead of Big Tech results
The price of oil?soared to a six week high on Wednesday, as the U.S. traded with Iran, threatening the Middle East's energy shipping. Equities were flat before the release of important Big Tech earnings. Brent crude prices rose last around 2.7% to $93.40 per barrel, reaching levels that have not been seen since early June. The U.S.-Iran detente ended in early this month and tanker traffic was once again restricted through the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened to launch more attacks against Iran's infrastructure on Wednesday. The war, which has lasted for nearly five months, has depleted the global stockpiles of food and fuel. This has stoked worldwide inflation. The threat of an attack by the Houthis, a group aligned with Iran in Yemen, on another major artery in Middle East - the Red Sea - could cause shipping disruptions to worsen. Following the Houthi threats, four oil tankers transporting Saudi crude from the Gulf to Asia changed course in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Kevin Thozet, member of Carmignac's investment committee, said: "Two-weeks ago, oil was falling, everyone?was saying that it would go back to $60 or $70 a barrel. Now (Hormuz is closed again), oil is rising, and everyone is saying that it will go up to $120." Closed shipping routes to more than a quarter the world's supply of oil and gas would result from the closure of Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz. Analysts said that clearing both of these logjams could put a strain on the U.S. Military, as it hasn't been able reopen Hormuz after the beginning of the war in February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% on Wall Street. Meanwhile, the S&P?500 gained 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1% due to weakness in chip stocks. Indermit Gil, World Bank's chief economist, said that escalating hostilities may reignite inflation and drive interest rates up, resulting in a drop of global growth to 1.3% from 2.9% the previous year. ALPHABET STARTS TECH EARNINGS After Wednesday's close, the stock market will focus on Alphabet's earnings. The company is under scrutiny for its delayed launch of an important AI model. Tesla is expected to announce its first quarter cash burn since over two years. Micron Technology, Nvidia and other chip stocks, which have played a key role in this year's AI rally, saw gains of 0.3% and 3.2%, respectively. In recent months, shares of hyperscalers were under pressure due to concerns about rising capex. John Plassard is the head of investment strategy for Cite Gestion. He said that even the slightest doubts about the monetization or return on infrastructure investments could put into question what has been driving the market rally in the last two years. Donald Trump's recent tariff announcements also added to the uncertainty. He said that all generic drugs imported into the U.S. would be subject to a tariff of 100% starting in August 2028. The rate will then rise to 200% one year later. This week, the administration imposed a tariff of 50% on certain Canadian goods. The MSCI All-World Index was slightly higher for the day as the STOXX 600 in Europe rose 0.6%. YEN BOUCES OFF 40-YEAR-LOWS Investors weighed up measures that officials would take to stabilize the currency. Satsuki Katayama, the Japanese Finance Minister, said that the government is ready to take "decisive actions" on currency markets as needed. However he refused to comment on specific levels of foreign exchange. After four consecutive daily gains, the dollar fell from its one-week high on Wednesday. Central bankers are finding it more difficult to forecast monetary policy due to the rising cost of energy. The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Friday, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is due to make a decision next week. LSEG data show that both?central banks will likely hold borrowing costs this month. However, traders expect borrowing costs to increase by at least 25 basis point each in the U.S. After touching a 2-month high on February 2, the yield on U.S. Treasury 10-year notes increased 1.4 basis points, to 4.64%. Later in the day, the Treasury will auction 13 billion dollars in 20-year bond. (Reporting and editing by Amanda Cooper; Anil D'Silva and Jan Harvey; David Gaffen and David Gaffen).
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Spanish wildfire victims were left to their own devices because of patchy warnings and outdated plans
Twelve people died on July 9 trying to escape wildfires in the southern Spanish village of Bedar. Regional officials claimed that some had refused to stay at their homes. Five residents and survivors said they never received any advice, and two others, who did, claimed that warnings were given via WhatsApp groups, church bells, and home visits by local officials. Bob Layton, retired British technical manager, claimed he did not receive any warnings or advice about the fire. He drove away just a few minutes before the wildfire engulfed the home he was in, Paraje el Curato. This is a hamlet located about 2,5 km (1,55 miles) south of Bedar, where the majority of those who died were trying to flee. Burns claimed the life of a British woman aged 93. Layton stated, "If I'd been told to stay inside my house we would all have died - the place was completely destroyed." "I knew which track to use to escape, but others tried to take a slightly different track or a slightly longer route, and did not survive. The fire turned into an inferno." In Paraje el Curato, some homes were destroyed and others survived. After the main road was closed, eight people, including Layton's neighbours, were killed trying to leave Paraje el Curato along the same route. Four other people died in another convoy. The fire did not reach the hamlet for 3.5 hours, at which point the main road was already blocked. Antonio Sanz, the head of emergency services in Andalusia said that the region decided against using an "emergency alert system" which sends mobile phone alerts for the fire, because it could not be tailored to specific community, where some need to evacuate while others stay at home. Last week, other regions like Madrid, Aragon and Castile La Mancha used the system to warn of wildfires. Andalusia's government issued a statement in July?11 stating that the mayor of Bedar and other officials went door-to-door in the area giving advice and also telling victims in Paraje el Curato shelter in place. Sophie Vandebroek's brother Stanislas was one of those killed. She said that he did not receive an evacuation warning which would have allowed them to do so safely. She said, "If there had been communication via the emergency alert system, when the fire broke, before my brother even saw the fire, Stanislas, and his seven neighbours would still be alive," she said. She said that she and her family spoke with the victims' families and mayor. Some relatives discussed with their family members whether or not they should leave. She added, "It seems that no one who died received an official communication before the time it was too late." Bedar Town Hall did not respond to email or phone requests for comment. The mayor of Bedar, Angel Collado declined an interview request. The spokesperson for the local police confirmed that all relevant facts regarding the fire are being investigated, but did not make any further statements as the case has been sealed. The spokesperson for Andalusia’s Supreme Court stated that the judge is basing his investigation on the cause. FIRE SPREADING FASTER Wildfires are spreading faster and more often in Europe. Experts say that it is important to communicate evacuation plans as well as safety details long before the fire starts. The public should be informed in advance about the dangers in the area and the evacuation routes. They must also know the basic measures for self-protection. It is important to map out the scattered houses, plan evacuations, and carry out drills. This was explained by Fernando Medina a professor of geography from the University of Las Palmas of Grand?Canaria. Almeria is the Andalusian region that includes Bedar. Only 42 of 103 municipalities had emergency plans, which included wildfires. According to the Andalusia Government, only nine municipalities had updated their fire plans every four years in areas of risk. A spokesperson for the Andalusian Government said that Bedar's Emergency Plan was approved last in 2019. It is currently being updated. Wildfires are a risk to the?municipality. When asked about the lack plans, the spokesperson stated that the Andalusian Government provides advice and assistance but it is the responsibility of the municipalities to update their plans. Bedar's Town Hall did not respond to several requests for comments on its evacuation plans or if it had conducted wildfire drills. A statement online states that the Almeria government met with 49 municipalities in February at Los Gallardos (near Bedar) to discuss how to streamline updating emergency plans. Bedar's town hall did not respond to an inquiry asking if it participated in the February meeting. Some people who lived closer to Bedar, than the hamlet, received warnings. Waheed Mumtaz said that police told him to evacuate at 10:30 pm. Juan Pedro, who works at Bedar’s Miramar, said that the church bells started ringing "soon" after the fire began. He said he received a message from the townhall via WhatsApp telling him to evacuate. He said that as soon as the smoke was visible, the bells rang, and the word spread, everyone in the village knew to leave. Not everyone was part of that WhatsApp group. Pedro Tierney, 31 saw the fire from a distance and ran home to save his grandmother and aunt in a car. He said that it was his "gut feeling" that he had to leave, and that he did not receive any alerts to evacuate. David Alexander, professor emeritus of emergency planning at University College London, explained that wildfires can be blown in a different direction by the wind. This makes it difficult for authorities to communicate instructions. He said that the haphazard nature of the messages during this fire indicates poor planning. He said they should have used an alert, even if it was not possible to send specific instructions, to warn people of the fire. Layton called on authorities to work with residents to develop a plan to alert people to imminent dangers in the future. He said: "I don't want to blame anyone - everything happened so fast - but it was despicable for them to try and assign blame." Reporting by Nina Lopez; Additional reporting by Emma Pinedo and Alexandra Hudson; Editing by Alexandra Hudson
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Guinea first-half bauxite exports hit record high on Chinese demand
Guinea's bauxite exports rose 15% in the first half if?2026 to a new record high, according to official data. This was due to strong Chinese demand, despite increasing pressure on smaller producers because of rising fuel and shipping costs. Bauxite feedstock is used to make alumina. Alumina is an important ingredient in aluminum, which can be found in many industries, including transport, construction, and packaging. Guinea, which is the largest bauxite supplier in the world, exported 114.8 million tons between January and the end of June. This was up from 99.8 millions tons a year ago, according to data released by the Mines Ministry. Exports in the second quarter of 2025 increased 5.3% compared to the same period last year, from 51.2 millions tons to 53.9 million tonnes. The industry leader Societe Miniere de Boke shipped 16.95 millions?tons in the first quarter. China's Chalco followed with 7.73million tons, and Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinee with 4.13million tons. The data also showed that Guinea shipped 238,563 metric tons of alumina during the quarter. Chinese companies control 60% of Simandou's iron ore deposits, the largest in the world. They also dominate Guinea's bauxite sector, which exports 70% of its products to China. GUINEA PROPOSED CURBS FOR OUTPUT Guinea considered imposing export curbs for bauxite to help smaller miners, and to raise prices. However, it has not implemented them. According to Procurement Resources, a firm that tracks commodity prices, the global bauxite price has fallen in 2026 because of oversupply following last year's rally. Guinea Free On Board prices are now hovering around $38 to $39 per dry ton. Guinea's export performance is strong despite operational challenges in its rainy season, and the sharp rise of logistic costs due to the Middle East Crisis. Mehdi Chehab, a sector analyst, said that it is getting more expensive to mine bauxite and ship it. Fuel prices are up by over 80% and rough seas increase voyage times and freight. Second analyst: Smaller mines producing lower-grade ore are the hardest hit. The analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive topics, said that Dynamic Mining was one of the firms which had ceased operations. Three other companies have also suspended or reduced their activities. Dynamic Mining didn't immediately respond to our?request for comments. According to the second analyst, and to a mining executive speaking under condition of anonymity, the disruptions will not have a significant impact on Guinea's total 2026 production because major exporters are continuing to expand their production and that new operators are entering into the market. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Pratima Deai and Emelia Matarise edited the article.
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Rome offers free movie screenings to escape the summer heat
Rome is offering free'screenings' in 11 air-conditioned movie theaters as part of a heat relief plan that Mayor Roberto Gualtieri announced?on Wednesday. The scheme will run between?Thursday and August 4th, expanding the existing network of 'climate shelters' in the Italian capital, including public libraries?and museums. Gualtieri stated in a press conference that "beautiful films will be shown, including the latest releases." The screenings are free and will take place between 1 pm and 6.30 pm. Admission is on a first come, first served basis. The first film will be the Italian comedy drama from 2023 "C'e Ancora Domani". Gualtieri stated that "each day, a different film is shown in each of the 11 participating cinemas. This allows people to watch a movie in an air-conditioned environment because not everyone owns air conditioning." According to the Italian air force's weather service, temperatures in Rome were expected to reach 36C (97F) on Wednesday and 35C (both Thursday and Friday). (Written by Francesca Piscioneri and edited by Alvise Armellini)
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German yields on policy sensitive bonds are at their highest level in two years, while French long-end bonds hit 4%
As the Iran conflict intensified, German borrowing costs rose to a new two-year peak and French longer-dated rates rose above 4% for a first time since June 2009. This boosted expectations of higher inflation and policy rate. Brent crude oil prices surpassed $95 per barrel on Wednesday. U.S. president Donald Trump also said that the U.S. will "bomb and demolish one bridge or power station" if Iran attacks a ship near the Strait of Hormuz. German yields on two-year bonds, which are sensitive to expectations of policy rates, increased 4.5 basis points to 2.8425%. This is their highest level since July 2024. Money markets predicted that the deposit rate at the European Central Bank would be 2.70% by December 2027 and 2.78% by?February, 2027. It is currently 2.25%. Also, they fully priced in a rate increase for September. The market participants continue to expect that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week. James Bilson is a global fixed income strategist at Schroders. He said that the European Central Bank's key message after its 25 basis point rate increase in June was not to just "one and done". "However the market repricing?has already been substantial, and with no reductions now priced in for the next two-years, despite the uninspiring outlook for growth, this leaves us feeling more optimistic about the euro zone's duration." In order to be constructive about duration, you should favor longer-dated bonds in the hope that yields will fall. The benchmark 10-year German government bond yield for the euro zone was 2 basis points higher at 3.18%. It was at 3.20% by mid-May, the highest since May 2011. FRENCH AND ITALIAN ?YIELDS AT 4% The cost of borrowing long-term in France and Italy is very close to 4%. The 10-year Italian bond yield climbed 3.5 basis points, to 4.03%. It had risen above the 4% mark on Tuesday for the first time since the 30th of March. Spread between Italian government bonds & Bunds reached 82 basis points, its highest level since early May. The spread was 63 bps before the Iran War began and reached 103.62 at the end of March, its highest level since early 2025. France's 10-year yields have reached 4%, the highest since June 2009. They were up by 2.5 basis points at 3.99%. The yields on UK gilts were close to their two-month highs following data showing that inflation was lower than expected. The easing of consumer price pressures is likely to be a temporary relief for the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, as he attempts to lower living costs. The yield gap between the government bonds of Britain and Bunds is 187 basis points, putting the fiscal trajectory in the spotlight. The UK 10-year gilt rate has reached a new two-month high of 5.0639%. This is an increase of 3.5 basis points. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Clarence Fernandez Gareth Jones, Alexander Smith, and Alexander Smith).
Gold reaches a two-week high on a softer dollar. Fed outlook is in focus
Gold reached its highest level in two weeks Wednesday. The move was aided by a weaker dollar and technical buying as the markets assessed signs of lingering Middle East tensions. They also waited for the Federal Reserve to provide fresh information on U.S. Interest Rates.
Spot gold rose 1.8%, to $4150.91 an ounce, by 12:41 pm EDT (1641 GMT). It had earlier reached its highest level in July at $4141.59. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery rose 2% to $4156.60.
Gold exploded higher and surpassed $4,140 as a weaker Dollar and dip buyers gave fresh inspiration to bulls, said Lukman otunuga senior research analyst at FXTM.
He added that "the underlying bearish Fundamentals may limit upside gains, especially since oil prices are up over 3% in the morning."
On Wednesday, the?U.S. The dollar index weakened on Wednesday, lowering the price of greenback bullion for overseas buyers. U.S. Secretary?Rubio stated that Washington is willing and able to negotiate a solution to the Iran Crisis, but Tehran has not been serious in talks. Four tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for Asia were forced to turn back in the Red Sea Wednesday due to the growing conflict. The Houthis of Yemen, which are Iran-aligned and control the coast along the southern route out, had threatened them. On hearing the news, oil prices rose to their highest level in six weeks.
The increased oil prices caused by the Gulf supply disruptions are putting pressure on gold prices, as they have raised expectations for higher interest rates over time. This tends to reduce?the appeal?of non-yielding?gold. Data from a survey suggests that the Fed will likely keep its key rate constant for the remainder of 2026. A poll showed that markets are pricing in two rate increases by the end of next March. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders expect an interest rate increase in September. Investors will be watching the FOMC's interest rate decision meeting, which is scheduled for next week, to get more clues about the Fed's policy.
Other metals rose as well. Spot silver increased by 2.2%, to $60.09 an ounce. Platinum gained 1%, to $1.645.86. Palladium increased 1.7%, to $1.303.25. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda and Nia Williams)
(source: Reuters)