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Stocks rise as traders reduce rate hike bets, oil prices drop
Oil prices fell on Thursday, as higher inventories and lower forecasts of global demand offset geopolitical worries. The U.S. Producer Price Data, which was unchanged since?July?, has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve Rate hike next month. This helped tech stocks to propel the S&P 500 intraday record high. The traders have reduced their bets for a rate hike in September, pricing a probability of 65% that the Fed will remain on hold next week compared to 50% on Wednesday. After the producer prices data, gold prices pared their losses and U.S. Treasury rates extended their decline. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 7.32 points or 0.63% to 1,161.85. WALL STREET TECH BOOSTS The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 113.90 or 0.21% to 53,884.17. The S&P 500 gained 55.76 or 0.72% to 7,8004.26. And the Nasdaq Composite rose by 235.69 or 0.89% to 26,824.18. Mohit Kumar, an analyst at Jefferies said, "Earnings (for AI infrastructure names have been strong) and show no signs of slowdown on Capex," before saying the bank still had an overweight position in AI. He added that "the background of high cash levels in the system, and Fed not increasing (Jefferies' view), should continue to support risky assets." The STOXX 600 index in Europe rose by 0.12% while the FTSEurofirst 300 index grew by 3.09 points or 0.12%. The MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan closed?0.96% higher and emerging market shares were 0.92% greater at 1,697.36. US-IRAN DEADLOCK Washington and Tehran exchanged accusations over Thursday's deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz. The United States said Iran failed to fulfill its obligations, and Iran countered that Washington did not deliver on the end of a blockade of Iranian port. Brent crude futures dropped to $86.72 a barrel, a drop of 2.54% for the day. U.S. crude fell 2.7% to $81.00, on signs that demand was lower. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecast of world oil demand growth for 2026. The euro zone, which is a major energy importer, and Japan are likely to be hit harder by high energy prices, while the United States appears relatively immune from oil shocks. CURRENCY, BONDS The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.1%, to 99.85. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.14%, to $1.154. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 7.29 basis points, to 4.619%. And the 30-year bond rate dropped 6 basis points, to 5.187%. Analysts say that the U.S. budget deficit rising to $432 billion will likely?add upwards pressure to long-term borrowing rates. Evelyne Liechti, Mizuho's?strategist, said that the PPI data, along with jobless claims, is the next test. The Japanese yen rose 0.17% to 159.16 dollars per dollar. The producer price index in Japan, which increased 7.2% from a year ago, reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates sooner than expected next month. Reporting by Chris Prentice, New York; editing by Sharon Singleton and Andrew Heavens.
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Poland arrests Russian accused of killing Ukrainian-American citizen
Poland arrested a Russian man hired by Moscow to kill an Ukrainian-American in Warsaw. Tusk informed journalists that the Russian had been detained by police on 7 August and was recruited to kill someone who was "inconvenient" to the Putin regime. The Russian Embassy?in Warsaw didn't immediately respond to a emailed request for comment. Moscow has consistently dismissed European claims of attacks by saying that the West fuels anti-Russian paranoia. Tusk stated that "thanks to the truly brilliant action of our services... we were able to detain a 'Russian citizen who was recruited by Russian intelligence services." Tusk, without revealing any further information about the man's identity, said that a Russian was hired to kill him. Tusk added, "Thanks to the Internal Security Agency, and the police, we were able to stop this 'attack,' this 'execution, at the last minute." Prosecutors said that in June, a Russian critic of President Vladimir Putin had been shot and killed by a group of thugs in the eastern Polish town of BialaPodlaska. Poland claims that its role as a hub for military and other supplies to neighbouring Ukraine has made it a prime target for Russian espionage. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens, Anna Wlodarczak Semczuk and Pawel Florkiewicz)
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CEO of X-Energy says that X-Energy will receive up to an additional $1 billion in US public funding for Texas nuclear project.
The CEO of X-energy, a small?nuclear energy company that is trying to build the next generation of these plants, announced?on thursday that his?company was told by U.S. Department of Energy it would receive up to an additional $1 billion of public funding in Texas for a joint project with Dow Inc. Clay Sell, CEO of Dow, said on an earnings call that the total public funding for this project in Seadrift will be $2.15 billion by 2021. DOE's Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program is supporting the project. This program aims to "accelerate" the deployment of small nuclear reactors by forming cost-shared partnerships with U.S. industries. Sell said that the new funding would be subject to the 50/50 cost sharing requirements of the original award. Sell stated on the phone that the reactor is "expected to be the first grid scale advanced nuclear reactor deployed in North America to serve an industrial site." Sell stated that the DOE grant "is our biggest source of revenue at our current?development stage." The DOE did not respond immediately to a comment request. Dow and X Energy?submitted a construction permit request to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission last year for a project they hope will be operational in the early 2030s. The project is designed to replace the existing energy and steam units at Seadrift, which is a petrochemical plant and plastics factory, with power and industrial steam.
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Two people are killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza, the first deaths in over a week according to medics
Two Palestinians were killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip on Thursday, including a senior police official. This was the first death reported in over a week, as the Israeli military reduced its targeted attacks against the enclave in response to U.S. demands. Palestinian medics confirmed that the first attack targeted two motorcyclists in a western part of Khan Younis, south Gaza Strip. They added that the other person was injured. In a statement, the Israeli military claimed that the airstrike on Khan Younis targeted a Hamas leader who was planning to attack its troops. On Thursday evening, an Israeli drone fired three missiles at a car driving through western Gaza City. The head of the Gaza City Police force was killed, and two others were critically injured, according to witnesses and medics. Hamas' interior ministry confirmed, in a separate statement, that Israel "assassinated" police colonel Jamal Abu Kmail. The Israeli military did not immediately comment. Security and health officials say that Israel has intensified its attacks against members of the Hamas led police force, killing dozens since the ceasefire in October began. TRUMP GAZA PLAN Last month, U.S. president Donald Trump said that his plan for ending the war had reached a breakthrough. Both Israel and Hamas were on board with it. Israeli forces would withdraw as Hamas disarmed, and an International Stabilization Force, working with a newly formed Palestinian police force, would secure the enclave. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, reiterated his opposition to?Trump’s latest Gaza plan on Sunday in televised comments made to his right-wing cabinet, even though Israel's army had stopped attacks in the area under the pressure of the U.S. President. Hamas has said that it is in agreement with the plan to prevent a return to war. However, it also added that Israel must first meet its own obligations, which include withdrawal and ceasing all attacks. In a statement issued on Wednesday, Israel's military claimed that an aerial strike was used to eliminate a threat against Israeli troops. Gaza medics reported that a person was seriously injured in the attack on Beit Lahiya, in the northern part of the enclave. Since a U.S.-backed truce in October, which ended two years of war, Israeli fire has killed over 1,250 Palestinians, the majority of whom were civilians. Hamas doesn't usually reveal information on dead militants, so it is difficult to know how many of the people killed were actually militants. According to Israeli statistics, militants killed four Israeli soldiers in Gaza during the same time period.
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Poland will reintroduce measures to lower fuel costs, says PM
On Thursday, the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that his government will reintroduce some measures to reduce 'fuel prices' in 'the last two weeks of august. He said that the Energy Minister would announce daily maximum fuel prices from August 17 to August 31. Tusk said to reporters that "we have decided to restore a significant portion of the CPN program (lower fuel price)". He said that the VAT reduction should translate into a'reduction in fuel costs of 0.90 to over 1 zloty ($0.2682) each litre depending on the type or gasoline or diesel. Poland, like many other countries introduced measures 'in March' to cap fuel costs following a spike in energy prices due to?the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. As the war drags on, the government has re-instituted curbs. However, they are not at the same level as at the height of the conflict. ($1 = 3.7282 zlotys) (Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk, Pawel Florkiewicz and Anna Koper; Editing by Alison Williams)
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Gold prices fall as US PPI data remains steady and supports rate-hold expectations
Gold prices fell below $4,500 on Thursday after falling almost 1% earlier in the session. The U.S. Producer Price Data matched expectations, reducing bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates next month. Profit-taking also kept the price of gold down. After touching the session low of $4363.44, spot gold dropped 0.5%, to $4386.69 an ounce, by 9:26 am EDT (1326 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures? dropped 0.5% to $444.00. "Gold is at a major resistance level of 4,500." Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist for StoneX. He said that we touched the level twice, and the gold price fell from there. In July, the U.S. Producer Price Index remained unchanged as goods prices fell. However, higher costs for?services suggested that inflationary pressures may persist. The consumer price report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. inflation was 3.4% for the 12-month period ending in July, down from a previous reading of 3.5%. This is in line with expectations and is lower than the previous reading of 3.5 %. According to Kyle Rodda of Capital.com, senior financial analyst, the US price growth has moderated but is still above target, which makes it more likely that the Fed will hold rates for September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are now pricing in a 32% probability of a rate increase at the September meeting. This is down from 40% after the PPI results. Fed policymakers will not feel compelled to raise rates in the next month after inflation has slowed for a second month. Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, however, reiterated Wednesday that it was necessary to increase?rates 'right now'. The lower interest rates will reduce the cost of storing non-yielding "bullion". Oil prices fell on Thursday due to concerns about a weaker global economy this year and supply disruptions. A SEC filing revealed that Bank of Korea held a $250-million stake in the US-listed Gold?ETF at the end of June. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
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Noel Tata is the power broker for group's succession and listing decisions
Noel Tata has spent decades building a?retail business and trading companies out of the spotlight, which followed his half-brother Ratan Tata. As chairman of Tata Trusts he will have a major influence on two of the most important decisions that the Tata Group faces: who will lead it next and if it goes public. Noel's influence on Tata Sons succession process, and role in the listing discussion could determine the future of India's largest conglomerate. Tata Sons - the holding company for the group with a market value of $277 billion - must select a successor to Chairman N. Chandrasekaran in February 2027. Tata Trusts, which owns a controlling stake of Tata Sons, have a great deal of influence over the decision. Noel Tata, 68 years old, was long overshadowed and dominated by his half-brother Ratan Tata. Ratan Tata had been the face of the conglomerate's public image for decades. Noel rose to prominence in less visible areas of the business. He built credentials through retailing and trading, rather than with the group’s flagship companies. Noel served on various boards for years, despite being rarely visible in public. Noel, unlike Ratan Tata - one of India's most recognisable corporate executives - largely avoided publicity despite growing influence in the group. Noel became a key figure after Ratan Tata's death, in October 2024. He was unanimously elected by the Trustees as Chairman of Tata trusts. He occupies now one of the most influential positions in Indian corporate governance. He said that the task is to determine the best way to allocate the resources available to us, to make the right decisions on how to use them, and to do what's best for India. "We must serve for the purpose of which the founders the Trusts left shares - to better life in India." DEBATE SUCCESSION OR LISTING? Two issues will determine the future of this 158-year old conglomerate. The selection of Tata Sons next chair, and whether or not the privately-held company should pursue a listing. Tata Sons is under 'pressure from the minority shareholder Shapoorji Group to pursue an IPO.' Regulatory requirements may also resurrect the issue in the future unless the company obtains an exemption. Noel did not make any public comments but reports in the media said that he and his fellow trustees were unanimously against listing last year. According to a source who has direct knowledge of this matter, he asked Tata Sons for clarification on four or five issues. These included the group's performance, its 5-year plan, capital spending and the reason why it was not listed. His influence will likely be decisive in the selection of the next chairman. The Tata Sons Board will oversee the process of selection, but the trusts control over the holding company will allow Noel to have a say in the choice of a leader who can balance commercial ambitions and the group's unique governance structure. The trusts have veto power over Tata Sons key decisions. They appoint one third of the directors. Background of Retail and Trading Noel's career was largely spent away from the spotlight after he graduated from Britain's Sussex University. He established his reputation in the group by focusing on retail and trading rather than its steel, auto and IT companies. After joining Tata International's trading division, he moved to Trent, a small retail company. He was the managing director of Trent from 1999 to 2003. Trent became one of India's most successful retail businesses through brands like Westside, and later Zudio, which is a value fashion chain. His success helped him to become a respected leader within the Tata Group. "Noel has a good understanding of how Tata's businesses are run. Many people wondered how Tata would compete with big retailers in retail. Noel showed it", Sanjay Singh told 2024, a former Tata Sons Executive who retired in 2019. Sources with knowledge of this group claim that he was a very private person who built his influence in a quiet manner. His office served as the main channel for his public statements and views. In August 2010, Noel ?became Tata International's managing director. During his tenure the company's turnover grew from $500 million to over $3 billion as it expanded geographically and across businesses. In November 2021, he stepped down from his position as managing director after reaching the retirement age of senior executives. He remains its non-executive chair. He also held other boardroom positions within the conglomerate. These included chairmanships of Voltas, Tata Investment Corporation and Tata Steel, as well as vice-chairmanships with Titan and Tata Steel. Singh stated that "he has kept a low-profile so the outside world does not know him very well but he's quintessential Tata". (Reporting by Chandini Monnappa in Bengaluru, Jayshree P Upadhyay in Mumbai, additional reporting by Saikeerthi; Editing by Dhanya Skariachan and Elaine Hardcastle)
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The US claims that more oil is escaping the Middle East. But is this true? Russell
How much crude oil leaves the Strait of Hormuz each day? The U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright claims that almost nine million barrels of crude oil are exported every day. However, companies tracking vessel movements claim it's only about half. Wright said on social?media platform X that "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military?and?our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million bpd." This oil goes into Asia, which has been the hardest hit since the U.S. Wright stated on the social?media platform X that the U.S. Military?and our gulf ally's coordinated efforts have resulted in the seven-day oil average leaving the Strait of Hormuz reaching almost 9 million bpd. Wright said on social media platform X that "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military?and?our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million bpd." If Wright's figures are correct, the oil market may not be as tight as many analysts think. Wright's figures don't match those of several tracking services. Wright did not specify the exact time frame for his seven-day mean, but data from Kpler's commodity analysts shows that crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz were 2.77 million bpd for the week starting July 27. The week starting August 3 will see a drop to just 1.74 million bpd. Even the best week of the conflict, the week that began June 29, saw only 6.98 millions bpd. What is the total amount of exports to and from the Middle East region? This includes cargoes departing from the Red Sea port of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, as well as those from Oman and shipments from the Fujairah facility located in the United Arab Emirates. Kpler data indicates crude shipments were 9.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week starting August 3 and an average of 12.26 millions bpd over a period of four weeks. LSEG Oil Research data, filtered so that only cargoes being loaded or already loaded are shown, as well as those in progress, show Middle East crude exports at 9.33 million bpd during the first 12 days of august, down from 12.35 millions bpd recorded for July. The tracking data indicates that the Middle East's total exports are still below the pre-conflict level, with Kpler showing shipments of 18.7 million bpd for the three months up to the end February. It would be logical, if Wright's figures are correct, for import data from the Middle East to show an increase. Kpler showed a surge in Middle East crude imports in July. Of the 13.27 million barrels per day (bpd) that arrived, 10.86 million were discharged in Asian ports. The imports of crude oil from the Middle East were up from 9.26 million barrels per day in April. This was the lowest Kpler data since 2013. However, the number for July was still far below the average of 18.71 million barrels per day in the three months prior to the Iran War. This was partly due to the fact that a lot of tankers were able to leave the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire was declared between Iran and the United States in mid-June. MIND THE GAP The vessel tracking data shows a difference between what they see and what Wright claims is being shipped out of the Middle East. Three main explanations are possible for the?gap. 1. Wright's department provided the correct numbers, but tracking services miss some clandestine shipments which are done out of sight. 2. Wright and his department "genuinely believe" their numbers but are wrongly counting shipments. 3. Wright is aware that his numbers are incorrect, but he continues to disseminate the information because it fits the narrative of U.S. president Donald Trump who wants to portray the war as going well. Wright could resolve the first possibility by sharing his knowledge of what he knows, such as vessel names, cargo details, and the loading and discharge ports. The tracking service could then compare the data to determine where discrepancies lie. The second possibility, which is the most likely one, involves the U.S. Navy doubling-counting exports that are transferred from ship to ship. Wright's third option is the most disturbing. And doubts will continue to persist as long as he doesn't present evidence. You can also 'wait a few more weeks' to see what the import numbers are from various countries who buy crude oil from the Middle East. The arrival numbers will reflect this if 15 million barrels per day are truly leaving the region. This is because tankers take time to travel from one destination to another. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
Fuel shortage worries grow as US refiners record new profits
U.S. refining margins reached a new record on Thursday for the third straight session, as falling stockpiles and worsening Middle East tensions threaten to cause a potential shortage of fuel in the world's biggest consumer nation. U.S. refining companies have been the most benefited by the Iran War as foreign buyers have clamoured for their products, pushing the nation's fuel exports to new records. Fuel prices have risen sharply as a result of the 'domestic' fuel stockpiles being reduced. This has impacted consumer budgets during the summer driving season, and could pose a problem for Midwest farmers.
The 3-2-1 crack is a spread that uses a 3-1-2-2 split.
U.S. Diesel stockpiles increased 4.5 million barrels to 102 million last week, but they were still "nearly 11,000,000 barrels lower than the level recorded on the 27th of February and about 8,000,000 barrels less than the seasonal average over the past five years," according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The gasoline supply is also a cause for concern, as refiners in the U.S., and around the world, have reduced production of motor fuel to increase diesel and jet fuel. Since the beginning of the Iran War at the end February, the supply-demand imbalance in the United States has caused gasoline stocks to fall more than diesel. This has left motorists in the U.S. with sticker shock.
EIA data shows that U.S. gasoline stocks fell by over 1.5 million barrels, to 210.5 millions barrels during the week ending July 10. This is a drop of over 42 million barrels from the week ending February 27, and a fall of 14 million barrels compared to the seasonal average for the past five years.
EIA data shows that the motor fuel inventory is at its lowest level since 2012.
Data from GasBuddy showed that the average U.S. retail gasoline price was $3.95 per gallon on Thursday. This is an increase of nearly 80 cents compared to last year. The data revealed that prices had risen to $4.56 a gallon due to disruptions in Middle East oil exports caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The price of gasoline is one of the most visible indicators of inflation for U.S. customers. This makes the recent price increase a political anathema to U.S. president Donald Trump who has accused the oil companies without evidence. Analysts predict that U.S. drivers may have to endure even more pain before refiners focus on gasoline.
John Kemp, an independent oil analyst based in London, wrote on Thursday to his subscribers that "encouraging refiners?to revert to max-gasoline will require higher prices for gasoline at both retail and wholesale levels as well as greater margins compared to other fuels."
U.S. gasoline crack spread
(source: Reuters)