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Aluminum up as the focus returns to shortages and sliding stocks

Prices of aluminium rose on Monday, as attention shifted back to forecasts about shortages caused by disruptions in Middle East supplies and shrinking stocks. Benchmark Aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.8% at $3,115 per metric ton?at 1603 GMT. It fell to $3,040 - the lowest level since February 19 - as optimism grew over a possible resumption in Middle East supplies. The Middle East is home to 9% of the world's aluminium smelting capacities.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, this market will still see a deficit in 2018.

Macquarie analysts expect Middle East production to drop to 4,44 million tons in this year's fiscal year, a 35% decrease from the previous year. Analysts at Macquarie expect the aluminium market to be 930,000 tonnes short this year.

The stock of aluminum in LME approved warehouses is down by more than 40% from late January, and has reached its lowest level since September 2022.

Metal earmarked to be delivered at 16% or cancelled warrants indicate that another 48,950 tonnes are expected to leave the LME.

The market in other countries is still awaiting the result of the review of possible tariffs on U.S. copper imports. The traders had expected to hear a decision by the end of June.

Macquarie stated in a note that the June 30 deadline was for the Commerce secretary to give an update to President rather than a?decision by the President. We are therefore in the 'wait and see' mode.

Since President Donald Trump's order to conduct a "national security investigation" in February of last year, traders and producers have shipped metals into the United States.

Since then, the copper stocks registered by Comex in?warehouses at 668.691 short tons (606,626 metric tonnes) have increased nearly 600%.

Many of those stocks came from?LME storage facilities. LME copper rose 0.1% a ton to $13,381, zinc rose 1.1% at $3,580 and lead fell 0.6% at $1,880. Tin advanced 0.6%, to $52,950 while nickel was unchanged, at $16,435. (Reporting and editing by Joyjeet Das, Tomasz Jarowski, and Solomon Cefai)

(source: Reuters)