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Russell: The debate over the volume of crude oil in Hormuz hides a real shortage of refined fuels

It is a mistake that the crude oil market is debating the wrong thing about how much oil actually moves through the Strait of Hormuz. The crude oil market should be debating the restricted flows of refined products in Asia.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright of the United States has claimed repeatedly that vessel tracking analysts like?Kpler cannot see how much crude oil is flowing through the disputed Strait.

Wright claimed that 15 million barrels per day (bpd), or about a third of the total volume, left the Strait of Hormuz in a single day last week. If this is true, the volumes would be close to the levels before the U.S. & Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.

Wright also stated that transits averaged around 9 million bpd during a 7-day period. However, he did not specify exact dates or provide details like vessel names and intended destinations.

The Strait of Hormuz is estimated to be leaving around 5 million barrels per day, including dark transits from smaller vessels and transfers between larger tankers.

The dispute over crude oil volume is false. If Wright's claim is true, then Asia will see a rise in oil imports as the crude that he claims is coming from the Middle East reaches ports.

The market will soon be able to determine whether Wright's numbers are accurate or if they're 'overstated'.

As evidenced by the sharply reduced volumes and high refining margins, Asia's markets for refined products remain under pressure.

Kpler estimates that Asia's imports for light and middle distillates in August will be 5.59 million barrels per day, which is in line with 5.60 million barrels per day seen in July.

These volumes, however, are down 21% compared to the average of 7.08 million bpd in the three-month period ending February.

Asia is essentially having to absorb the loss of 1,49?million barrels per day (bpd) of fuels like diesel, jet-fuel and gasoline.

UNEVEN FALLOUT

Impact is not evenly distributed across the continent that consumes the most energy, with the less-wealthy countries bearing a greater share of the product volume loss.

The imports of Indonesian light and middle distillates were estimated to be 432,000 bpd during August. This is the lowest level in 13 months, and lower than the average of 533,000 in the three-month period prior to the Iran conflict.

In August, the Philippines will see an arrival of 257,000 bpd for light and middle distillates. This is down from the average of 362,000 in the last three months.

Kpler estimates that August imports of middle and light distillates were 863,000 barrels per day, just a little below the 880,000 barrels per day in the three-month period prior to the Iran War.

Securing fuel is expensive, as product prices remain near record levels and refinery margins are high.

A Singapore refinery made a profit of $71.29 per barrel of gasoil (the building block of diesel) on August 21. This was down from a record high of $855.63 on the 30th of March, but still 226% more than the $21.90 on the 27th of February, just before the conflict began.

Middle distillates are the most stressed products, due to the limited supply of Middle East crudes. Asia's refineries are designed to convert this oil type into products like jet fuel and diesel.

Even gasoline, which is the primary light distillate, commands a premium with a large profit margin Ending at $20.74 per barrel on August 21? up 159% from $8.00 a barrel on February 27.

The market is indicating that there are enough crude oils reaching Asia but they may not be the right grades. Also, countries with surplus refining capacity do not increase exports in order to meet the demand.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)